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Post “Georgia fatigue” is someone else’s problem

Tuesday August 8, 2023

If Georgia fatigue wasn’t here already, the run-up to last season’s national title game gave us a taste of what it would look like:

“In a sport as silly and glorious and random as college football, why not pick TCU?”
“It’ll make for a good movie when the Horned Frogs pull it off.”
“I’d love for TCU to finish this miracle run and upset Georgia, winning the most unlikely national title in the modern era…”

Earlier this summer Ari Wasserman of The Athletic wrote, “But it’s June and it’s fun to dream that this sport isn’t predetermined and boring. Maybe Georgia or Alabama or Ohio State won’t win it all.” I don’t mean to pick on Wasserman who does good work and had a bigger point to make in the piece. It’s amazing though that two titles after a 40-year drought suddenly makes another Georgia title run “predetermined and boring.”

We went from wondering after 2020 whether Georgia and Kirby Smart could get over the hump to being the boring default so quickly that it makes one’s head spin. Don’t we get to enjoy this a little longer than two years?

I’m sure there are a lot of football fans ready to see Georgia dethroned. We all remember how it felt watching Florida in the 90s or late 2000s or Alabama since then. We remember the plays and games in which Georgia came up just short, the coaches and players whose names became nasty epithets, and oh boy do we remember how the refs screwed us. We didn’t have the titles and the rings, so we stewed about the people and forces conspiring to keep them from us. We waited in futility, and so will they.

Now Georgia has the titles and the rings thanks to Kirby Smart, his staff, and the players who turned Georgia into a championship program. It’s time for the fans of other teams to be tired of Georgia and grumble about that damn Kirby Smart. I don’t blame them: they want what Georgia has, and we’ve been there. I don’t blame the media who think it’s more compelling if someone else wins. It’s their job to be interesting, and if they stick with the odds and the obvious picks, they’re just one in a crowd. Writers want compelling storylines. TV wants ratings. Was the blowout in the title game bad for ratings? Our TV sets were on for the whole glorious thing.

I really don’t care about fans (and especially the players and coaches) of the vanquished dwelling on their teams’ losses to Georgia. It’s not my problem if fans of rivals and peers are horrified to see Georgia finally break through. It wouldn’t be sports without a writer or analyst drumming up content with a reach that’s against the grain. It’s just a wrong opinion – no one’s going to prison, son.

No one is taking away those wins, titles, and memories. As a Georgia fan there’s nothing to answer for. Believe it – the whining, griping, and pleading for Georgia’s run to end will only get louder as the wins pile up. How we react to that is up to us. Arrogance and entitlement isn’t my style, and we know that humility is only one game away. But neither is there any need to be defensive or give one care about the outside noise. Every second spent giving oxygen to that is a second not spent basking in the most successful era in program history. Each win, each title, and each season is something to be relished.

Take to heart the sage advice of Javon Bullard when asked about his overturned targeting penalty in the Peach Bowl:

“I’ll be honest. That play happened in December, and that you’re still talking about it is really not my fault. We moved on from that.”

There’s another season just ahead with the opportunity to make this special run truly historic. Georgia’s moving on.


Post What leads to a Georgia field goal?

Wednesday October 5, 2022

Georgia’s so-so red zone offense has emerged as one of the top concerns for an offense that otherwise is performing quite well. The Bulldogs are among the lower half of the nation in getting touchdowns from their red zone possessions. Fortunately Jack Podlesny’s accuracy has allowed the team to come away with points on nearly every trip, but of course you’d rather come away with 7 points rather than 3.

So lets go through the drives that ended with field goals rather than touchdowns and see if anything jumps out. (Yes, there’s plenty of confirmation bias here since we’re focusing only on the drives that stalled. Look at it this way – if a Georgia drive stalls out in the red zone, what has probably happened?)

Right away you notice how ineffective Georgia has been on first down. The most successful first down plays in these series were a Milton run for 4 yards and a Carson Beck run for 5. There are several short or incomplete passes. Four other drives had penalties that effectively ended those drives. If you’re not successful on first down in the red zone, you’re more likely going to be throwing tough passes against more compact coverage later in the series. Sure enough, only one of these drives ended by getting stuffed on a 3rd-and-short run. The rest all ended on incomplete passes or sacks. Though the Dawgs have occasionally been able to recover, an unsuccessful first down play often means a field goal attempt will be coming soon.

Georgia’s tight ends, as expected, have been a bright spot for the offense. We’ve seen Bowers excel in the red zone running the ball on sweeps as well as coming down with a beautiful catch at South Carolina. Washington has been a fantastic blocker on some of those touchdown runs. They’ve been less involved at the end of these stalled drives though. Again, that’s not saying tight ends haven’t been active in Georgia’s red zone offense. They’ve just been targeted less frequently on the drives that didn’t get into the end zone.

1Q SAM 12:

  • 1-10: Bennett incomplete to McConkey
  • 2-10: Bennett complete to Milton for 7
  • 3-3: McIntosh run for 1

After coming up short on 3rd down, Georgia lined up to go for it on 4th and 2 and drew a delay penalty.

1Q SAM 11:

  • 1-10: Milton run for 4
  • 2-6: Bennett incomplete to Bowers
  • 3-6: Bennett incomplete to Washington

Georgia did try to use the tight ends on this series after a decent run on first down.

2Q SAM 10

  • 1-G: Bennett complete to Bowers for 2, holding penalty
  • 1-G: Edwards run for 5
  • 2-G: Bennett complete to McIntosh for 7
  • 3-G: Bennett incomplete to Bell

The holding penalty killed the drive.

3Q SAM 20

  • 1-10: Bennett incomplete to McConkey
  • 2-10: McIntosh run for 1
  • 3-9: Bennett sacked for -17

Bennett tried more of the scramble magic that led to a touchdown against Oregon, but he took the sack here. Podlesny was just short on the 54-yard FG.

4Q SAM 9

  • 1-G: Beck complete to Robinson for 2
  • 2-G: Beck incomplete to Bell
  • 3-G: Beck incomplete to Gilbert

The reserves were in to finish it off. Again two passes on goal-to-go after a short gain on first down.

2Q SC 25

  • 1-10: Bennett incomplete
  • 2-10: Bennett incomplete to Meeks
  • 3-10: Bennett incomplete to McConkey

Not really a red zone opportunity. Georgia was trying to steal points before halftime and managed a field goal.

4Q SC 10

  • 1-G: Beck run for 5
  • 2-G: Beck complete to Jones for 2
  • 3-G: Beck incomplete to Morrissette

Another late-game drive by the reserves. Morrissette dropped a touchdown pass. Zirkel nailed his first career FG attempt.

1Q KENT 14

  • 1-10: Edwards run for 2
  • 2-8: Bennett incomplete to McConkey
  • 3-8: Bennett sacked for -10

Bad protection on third down after a timeout led to the sack.

3Q KENT 19

  • 1-10: Edwards run for 2
  • 2-8: Edwards run for 3
  • 3-5: Bennett incomplete to Rosemy-Jacksaint

Not sure where Bennett was going with the pass. MRJ was open for the first down.

3Q KENT 15

  • 1-10: Milton run for 10, illegal contact penalty on McClendon
  • 1-25: Milton run for 3
  • 2-22: Bennett complete to Rosemy-Jacksaint for 12
  • 3-10: Bennett incomplete to Bowers

15-yard penalties are drive-killers.

2Q MIZZOU 23

  • 1-10: Bennett incomplete
  • 2-10: Bennett incomplete to Washington
  • 3-10: Bennett incomplete to Rosemy-Jacksaint

Three straight incompletions after two long gains through the air.

2Q MIZZOU 12

  • 1-10: Bennett incomplete to Rosemy-Jacksaint
  • 2-10: Georgia OL penalty – hands to the face
  • 2-25: Bennett complete to Bowers for 11
  • 3-14: FG to end the half

Georgia wasted a lot of time getting into scoring position, and a personal foul all but guaranteed this drive would end with a FG.

3Q MIZZOU 7

  • 1-G: McIntosh run for -1
  • 2-G: Bennett incomplete
  • 3-G: Bennett sacked for -3

Georgia had two cracks at first and goal thanks to a Mizzou penalty but twice lost yardage on first down.

3Q MIZZOU 15

  • 1-10: Georgia false start
  • 1-15: Bennett incomplete to Washington
  • 2-15: Bennett incomplete to Bell
  • 3-15: Bennett complete to Blaylock for 9

Another red zone penalty and early down incompletions led to a difficult 3rd-and-long.


Post 22 questions for the 2022 season

Wednesday August 31, 2022

1) Where’s your head? We approach this season in unfamiliar territory – Georgia is the Dawg that finally caught the car. Hopefully, as fans, we can relax a bit and gain perspective on this era of Georgia football. The title eases 40 years of angst, but it’s more than that. Georgia fans can be confident in Kirby Smart’s claim that “we built a program to be sustained.” Yes, sustaining the program is constant and hard work, but that’s Smart’s problem and an implied expectation of his new large contract extension. Fans have the luxury of knowing the right man is in charge and enjoy having one of the best programs in the nation. Are you able to smell the roses, or do you find the familiar nerves and worry creeping back in with the start of another season?

2) Can they repeat? We might as well start with the big question. The most admirable aspect of Alabama’s program has been the consistency. It’s not easy to get to the top, but ask Auburn, FSU, or LSU how quickly things can come apart once you reach the summit. Alabama has survived nearly constant change in areas that you’d expect to hobble most programs. The hardest part might be sustaining the hunger to put in the work that it takes to maintain the standard. The leadership required to keep a team cohesive and working towards a collective goal has to be cultivated and reinforced every year. Kirby Smart has been around more than his share of defending champions and knows which buttons to push. He’s pushed the offseason message that last year’s accomplishments belong to last year’s team. Even if Georgia’s motivation is intact there’s still the practical matter of replacing a tremendous amount of talent from the championship team. That’s where recruiting comes in, and it’s the basis for Smart’s claim that his program is built for the long-term. Georgia’s roster is full, and it’s full of four straight top-5 recruiting classes. From that pool of talent Georgia must find new leaders and many starters, but they’re not starting from scratch. That depth of talent, some important returning production, and Smart’s process-oriented approach to building sustained success has Georgia again among the contenders.

3) Can last season’s model be duplicated? Offense seemed to be the imperative after several years of wide-open passing attacks dominating the sport. Georgia brought in Todd Monken in 2020 to bring its underperforming offense up to par. 2021’s elite Georgia defense turned out to be somewhat contrarian. The defense and its stars were as much a part of the story as Joe Burrow, DeVonta Smith, or Trevor Lawrence had been for their championship teams *. That defense also featured in an historic NFL Draft class, and Georgia will be replacing all but a handful of defensive starters. The danger in holding on to the 2021 model most likely isn’t a collapse; Georgia has recruited too well. Instead the defense might “regress” from elite to outstanding. For comparison it might be a return to the 2018 and 2019 seasons in which the defense was good enough against all but the best offenses. That puts the spotlight back on the offense, the ability of Stetson Bennett, the creativity of Todd Monken, and even how Kirby Smart approaches the game. The trends that reshaped the game over the past decade haven’t gone away. The best teams will always be well-rounded, but explosive high-scoring offenses still tend to rise to the top. Georgia’s offensive evolution must continue.

* – Each time this comes up, I’m compelled to note that Georgia’s offense did take a big step forward in 2021, finished 3rd in offensive SP+, and had six players drafted. Games were not won in spite of the offense.

4) Can Georgia get off to a more impressive start? The Bulldogs were glad to come away with shaky wins in their last two season openers. In 2020 the quarterback depth chart melted down before our eyes, and Georgia trailed Arkansas at halftime before Stetson Bennett led a second half rout. Last season the offense managed a scant three points as the defense did the heavy lifting against Clemson. Yes, getting a win is the most important thing, and that’s also going to be true in this year’s opener. There’s going to be a little more scrutiny of Georgia in this year’s opener though. The Dawgs are the defending national national champions, and they’re double-digit favorites against a talented opponent. Two years ago D’Wan Mathis was rattled. Last season we learned that J.T. Daniels played through an injury. Stetson Bennett is now a returning multi-year starter. There will always be first-game hiccups, but we should expect a cleaner and more productive showing from the offense in this opener. Georgia likely won’t have this much national attention on a game until the trip to Jacksonville, so this first impression could last a while.

5) How will the perception of opponents shift during the season? Last season few expected to have nationally-televised top-15 battles against undefeated Arkansas and Kentucky teams. Each year our outlook on the schedule has to adjust as some teams overachieve and others flop. Right now it looks as if Oregon and Kentucky will be two of the tougher games on the schedule. We’ll watch whether Florida can bounce back, and we should know plenty about Tennessee by November. Auburn is always a candidate for chaos especially when most seem to have written them off. Quarterbacks with multiple years in a Mike Leach offense seem like a good bet, and that late-season trip to Starkville could be uncomfortable.

6) Are we done with Covid disruptions? No Georgia game had to be rescheduled last season. Very few players missed time during the regular season. Towards bowl season though things began to fall apart as a new variant swept across the nation. At least five bowls were canceled outright. Kirby Smart admitted that his team was dealing with Covid issues during December but would be “near full strength” entering the playoff. Things were dicey enough in December that the CFP had to release official contingencies that included the possibility of a forfeit or even a vacated title. Fortunately things never got to that point, but the close call showed how a spike in cases nearly caused chaos in an otherwise fairly normal season. As Covid becomes endemic another seasonal wave isn’t out of the question as we head into November and December. Teams and conferences should at least get out ahead of things and review possibly outdated protocols before they’re needed.

7) Has it really been four years since Georgia Tech played in Athens? When last we saw the Yellow Jackets in Athens in 2018 the Georgia defensive line was doing its part to end Tech’s option era. Geoff Collins hasn’t brought a team to Athens yet, and there’s a non-zero chance he might not get the opportunity. Tech hasn’t fared well under Collins, and expectations aren’t high in 2022. If things go poorly enough there’s plenty of precedent for making a midseason change. What’s more interesting is how the rivalry has changed over those four years. In 2018 Tech was riding a two-game winning streak in Athens. Though Georgia was heavily favored and led 38-7 by halftime it was still a sold-out rivalry game with plenty of intensity and build-up. That wasn’t so much the case last year. Tech fans showed little interest in the game, Georgia fans were ready to have it over with, and the Tech team put up little resistance. You wonder this year how many Tech fans will bother to show and whether the tailgate scene will more closely resemble a September mid-major game. Even stalwarts like myself who see value in the rivalry find it difficult to place this game in its proper context now. One thing that keeps us going – Georgia is still six wins away from the longest winning streak in the series.

8) (When) will any of Georgia’s injured players contribute? We know that player fitness is a spectrum – even those completely cleared to play are often dealing with aches and pains. Arian Smith’s ankle injury cast means he won’t see the field for a while, if at all. Kendall Milton’s hamstring might not seem like much, but the season-ending injury to promising freshman Andrew Paul makes Milton’s availability that much more important. Tate Ratledge is working back from a tough injury that can linger. Dominick Blaylock has had a couple of devastating knee injuries and a much tougher path back than, say, George Pickens. On the other side of the ball, can Rian Davis be part of the answer at inside linebacker after leg surgery? Is Tykee Smith able to have the impact expected of his transfer in last season? Having any of these players available would be a big boost to their respective positions, but injuries have timelines of their own.

9) Will Georgia have the same starting quarterback for an entire season? It hasn’t happened since 2019, and we might have even seen a change that year if fans had their way. Performance and injuries have led to three different starters since 2020 – four if you include Newman. Lest we forget the 2021 starting quarterback was in doubt as late as December after a loss in the SEC Championship. The two playoff games were vindication for Stetson Bennett, and there hasn’t been much doubt since the Orange Bowl about QB1. Bennett seems as entrenched as any starter since Fromm, so there’s a chance of having him complete the season. The biggest question at quarterback is further down the depth chart. Georgia has three well-regarded prospects behind Bennett, but there’s very little experience. Carson Beck seems most likely to come off the bench first, and a favorable schedule should give he and the other quarterbacks a fair bit of playing time.

10) Will Adonai Mitchell build on his big catch? DeVonta Smith only caught eight passes as a true freshman in 2017, but Georgia fans will never forget the one catch he had in the national title game. Two years later Smith became a first-round pick and Heisman Trophy winner. No one is expecting an invitation to New York for Mitchell (yet), but with the departure of George Pickens (and to some degree Jermaine Burton) there’s room for a higher profile for Georgia’s young receivers. Though Mitchell will have plenty of help both on the outside and in the slot someone other than the tight ends will have to stretch the field and become a dependable target for Bennett.

11) Can anyone fill the James Cook role? When you saw James Cook split out wide taking a linebacker with him, you knew what was coming. Cook’s development into a complete tailback was a gratifying end to a career that started slowly. After rushing for 472 yards and catching 24 passes in his first two seasons, Cook blossomed in Todd Monken’s offense. He rushed for 1,031 yards, caught 43 passes, and found the endzone 16 times as a junior and senior. A 67-yard run in the title game led to Georgia’s first touchdown, and Cook threw a key block that gave Stetson Bennett time to find Mitchell for the go-ahead score. It was that pass protection that makes Cook more difficult to replace. Kenny McIntosh seems like the most likely back to end his career the way Cook did. McIntosh had only 328 yards rushing in 2021, but that’s to be expected playing behind Cook and Zamir White and was still good enough for 5.7 yards per carry. More interesting was McIntosh’s 22 receptions. That was sixth-best on the team and only five receptions behind Cook. We know McIntosh has the diverse skill set that Monken likes – it’s the details like pass protection that could set McIntosh apart or hold him back.

12) Will a change of scenery help Stacy Searels? Searels is back for a second stint as Georgia’s offensive line coach. From 2007-2010 his lines paved the way for backs like Knowshon Moreno and of course opened the gaps in the delightful “We Run This State” game in 2009. His most recent stop at North Carolina had mixed results. The Tar Heels had strong running games in 2020 and 2021 which led offenses that finished among the top 15 in SP+. On the other hand Carolina’s prized quarterback Sam Howell took beating after beating in all three of his seasons due to poor protection. Howell was sacked 8 times in a horrifying 2021 upset loss to Georgia Tech; Stetson Bennett was only sacked once by the Jackets. More concerning is the suggestion that Searels struggled with teaching RPO concepts in an Air Raid system which is exactly the kind of offense he’ll join in Athens. Hopefully Todd Monken can find more success working with Searels than Phil Longo did. Searels’ personnel at Carolina might have been a factor, but he’ll have to keep recruiting at the same level as Sam Pittman and Matt Luke in order to sustain Georgia’s talent edge on the offensive line.

13) Is Broderick Jones the next great left tackle? A year ago many anticipated Jones eventually taking over at left tackle during the season. Jamaree Salyer was Georgia’s best lineman and capable of playing tackle or guard, but in an optimal situation Salyer might have settled at guard. Things turned out to be less-than-optimal right away as Tate Ratledge was injured in the opener and the shuffling of the line began. Salyer remained at left tackle and performed well. Jones saw time during the year as a reserve as Salyer battled an injury, but his big moment came in the national title game. Scrambling for answers against a tough Alabama defensive front Georgia inserted Jones at left tackle and moved Salyer to right guard in the second quarter. You can point to many reasons why Georgia won the title, but better protection and a more productive running game in the second half belong high on the list.

14) Who is Georgia’s most underrated player? Warren McClendon comes to mind. It’s no surprise to see Brock Bowers, Jalen Carter, or Kelee Ringo on the SEC coaches’ preseason first team. But how many would have guessed McClendon? The line has been unsettled over the past year with injuries forcing various combinations at guard and center and even left tackle. But since 2000 McClendon has held down the right tackle spot with quiet competence and consistency. That stability might have even led reserve tackle Amarius Mims to considered a transfer during the offseason, but fortunately Mims returned to provide depth and continue his development. McClendon might have even earned his way into the tail end of last year’s draft class but decided to return as a redshirt junior as the only Georgia lineman on the coaches’ preseason SEC first team.

15) Is Georgia’s tight end depth that much of an advantage? Three of Georgia’s tight ends seem to be sure draft picks, and another promising true freshman is joining the group. We’ve dreamed all summer about using the magical 13 personnel that has three of them on the field at once. Even Todd Monken has had to tap the brakes on the enthusiasm noting that his receiver room would empty out into the transfer portal if Georgia featured its tight ends as much as some have (half-jokingly) suggested. There doesn’t seem to be any question about the talent. Bowers led all Georgia receivers with 56 catches and 13 TD as a freshman. Gilbert was an instant success at LSU with 35 catches also as a freshman. Washington’s stature never fails to impress. We know the offense can flourish with one standout tight end. The trick is how all three will fit into an offense that aims to be at least as productive as it was a year ago. Can Bowers and Gilbert come close to their freshman numbers with the other competing for receptions? Can Washington remain healthy enough to far exceed the ten receptions he had in 2021? We can at least skip the annual jokes about finally using the tight ends – now we see if their role can be maximized in the offense of a national contender.

16) What’s with this co-coordinator thing? People will tell you it’s really Kirby Smart’s defense the same way they told you ten years ago it’s really Nick Saban’s defense. No doubt Smart will always have his touch on the defense, but there’s no question he’s had some top-notch help at coordinator. Mel Tucker set a high bar for the Georgia defense. Dan Lanning raised it even higher. Now young inside linebackers coach Glenn Schumann and veteran SEC coach Will Muschamp will try to maintain that high level of play as co-coordinators. Each has specific responsibilities within the defense – Schumann with the inside linebackers and Muschamp with the safeties and star position. We’re still not sure how it’s going to play out in terms of playcalling or scheme. Perhaps that’s where Smart comes in – what Georgia wants to accomplish on defense and the skills expected at each position are program-level standards that won’t change. It will still be interesting to see who’s dialing up specific pressures and coverages within the game.

17) Who will help Jalen Carter? I touched on this earlier in the month. It’s easier to stand out when you have Jordan Davis and Travon Walker drawing plenty of attention, but Carter is fantastic in his own right. Protection schemes will focus on Carter this season until other linemen can make them pay for it. Worst case is Georgia having to send additional linebackers or defensive backs to get the kind of pressure they achieved rushing only four last season. Best case is one of more of a deep group of 2021 reserves stepping up or even a newcomer like Mykel Williams or Bear Alexander having the impact Carter and Walker had as true freshmen.

18) Can Nolan Smith become another defensive superstar? When we last saw the Bulldogs Nolan Smith put the game, season, and championship to bed with a sack of Bryce Young. It was a huge relief a few days later when he became one of the few defensive starters to announce his return for a senior season. Now as a senior Smith’s role will increase, but what does that mean? In 2019 Smith was the nation’s top prospect ahead of future NFL top 5 picks Kayvon Thibodeaux and Derek Stingley. Smith hasn’t underachieved; he’s been a weapon on the edge since his freshman season in 2019. We also know that Georgia’s outside linebackers aren’t all about the sacks. Robert Beal, also returning for a final season, led the team with 6.5 sacks. Smith tallied 4.5. You only have to re-watch the Florida game to see what’s asked of the position and to see the kind of game-changing impact Smith can have. Smith can drop into coverage and get an interception, force fumbles (3 last season), and, yes, rush the passer. As seniors and two of the most experienced returning defenders Smith and Beal will be expected to generate consistent havoc from the edge. Smith’s ceiling is as high as Jalen Carter’s – let’s see if he can get there.

19) Who captains the defense? Nakobe Dean followed a great line from Roquan Smith to Monty Rice as defensive leaders from the inside linebacker position. That role is up for grabs again. The most experienced linebackers, Nolan Smith and Robert Beal, are edge guys who usually aren’t in a position to adjust the defense. Christopher Smith will have the veteran leadership role from the safety position that Georgia enjoyed with J.R. Reed. Jamon Dumas-Johnson seems to have the most solid hold on an inside linebacker position. Smael Mondon is one of the more athletic players at the position but is catching up on experience. Trezmen Marshall, if he can remain healthy, has that experience that could give him the edge for playing time.

20) Will we see more combinations in the secondary? Last year Georgia didn’t have many options in the defensive backfield especially after Tykee Smith was lost for the season. Though there was rotation at star and in dime packages, the core combination of Kendrick, Ringo, Cine, and Smith didn’t vary much. Georgia looks to open the 2022 season with Ringo, Lassiter, Jackson, and Christopher Smith in their base package. Modern offenses often require a nickel look, and that position could be competitive throughout the season. William Poole came up big in the national title game. Tykee Smith is nearly back from his knee injury. Across the unit there are 11 freshmen and sophomores who could develop during the season. Javon Bullard and David Daniel-Sisavanh will fight for playing time at star and safety. Malaki Starks could be tough to keep off the field. If Georgia has issues up front with pressure, the secondary will be tested more this year. There’s enough talent among the underclassmen that seniority alone might not cut it.

21) Should we be concerned about punting? Georgia was among the best in the nation last season in starting field position. Of course the defense had its role, but Jake Camarda overcame inconsistency in previous seasons to become a field position weapon and a mid-round draft pick. You never really notice punting until things (and punts) go sideways. Georgia will likely look to a true freshman, Brett Thorson, and hope that there’s not a huge drop-off.

22) Is the return game settled? That elusive punt return touchdown remains just out of Kearis Jackson’s grasp; he’ll have one more season to get in the endzone. Georgia was an average kickoff return team, and Kenny McIntosh was usually the man to bring it out of the endzone. Both Jackson and McIntosh are capable returners, but it might be their experience that keeps coaches from shaking things up. Although long returns are great job #1 is cleanly fielding the kick each time. Georgia knows it has two men who can do that. Younger speedsters like Malaki Starks are waiting but might not get their chance for another year.


Post Stegeman’s unchanging banners an opportunity for Josh Brooks

Thursday March 10, 2022

It’s unfair to say that Josh Brooks has had an easy first year as Georgia’s athletic director. He’s already had to appoint three new head coaches under very different circumstances. He’s supervised the ongoing expansion of the Butts-Mehre facility to serve the football program and other sports. He’s listened to fans and made incremental improvements to the fan experience at Georgia sporting events. Brooks has been a busy man and a visible administrator.

It’s also true that Brooks came into the job at perhaps the best possible time. The school’s flagship football program is the best in the nation. Happy fans are buying tickets and merchandise, and the Hartman Fund donation numbers should be a sight to behold this year. Brooks, as befits his role as athletic director, was right there to join in all of the back-slapping and celebrations that went along with the national title. The months since the national title haven’t been as cheerful for Georgia’s winter sports, and Brooks might soon have to transition from posing for pictures with the CFP trophy to less pleasant duties and press conferences.

Stegeman Coliseum’s banners hang from the west end of the arena, and you can’t help but notice them while facing the flag during the performance of the national anthem. As you’d expect, Georgia’s historically strong gymnastics program claims most of the accomplishments (and only national titles) celebrated on those banners. The women’s basketball program adds its five Final Four appearances and eight SEC crowns. We know that championship seasons for men’s basketball have been few and far between, but they too have their place with a Final Four run in 1983 and three SEC titles.

What stands out is that none of the banners have needed an update since 2009. Stegeman’s winter occupants haven’t brought home an SEC title, much less a national title, since the GymDogs sent Suzanne Yoculan into retirement by rallying for another national championship in 2009. The only other schools without SEC titles in basketball or gymnastics since 2009 are Arkansas and Missouri. Are any of these sports close to adding to their banners?

Stegeman Banners

Men’s Basketball

The fate of the 2021-2022 men’s basketball season was sealed last spring. Tom Crean was retained after an unremarkable year. Nine players transferred out. The current roster was cobbled together from a few remaining players, a low-impact signing class, and whatever Georgia could scrape together from the transfer portal. The nature of Crean’s contract buyout essentially placed the program in hospice for a year. There was little doubt how it would end. The only questions were “when will it end?” and “how bad would it get?” We know the answers are “now” and “historically bad.”

Success in men’s basketball has been the white whale of Georgia athletics. Everyone has an idea how to fix things, but they all boil down to recruiting. Almost every year someone points out the Georgia natives enjoying postseason success elsewhere. This year we’ve been reminded weekly how several key members of the 2021 Georgia team have important roles for contenders. Recruiting is more than getting an isolated signature: it’s a sustained process of assembling and retaining a competitive roster year after year. Anthony Edwards was a recruiting coup for Tom Crean, but no one followed. Sahvir Wheeler and KD Johnson were above-average guards who left for better opportunities when a more competitive frontcourt couldn’t be built around them. Just assembling a quality roster and holding it together long enough to build something has been too much to ask.

Because of the transient nature of the 2021-2022 roster, the next men’s basketball coach won’t start out in a good position. There won’t be much of a splash in the spring recruiting period. There will be some typical attrition. Perhaps a handful of contributors from the current squad stick it out through the transition. Georgia will again be reliant on incoming transfers for a good chunk of its roster next season while the new staff gets its recruiting operation into gear. It’s likely to be an ugly, messy situation for a year or two – and that’s the lower limit if the next coach can gain recruiting traction within a year. Will that challenge make Georgia a less-attractive destination for a promising coaching prospect?

Gymnastics

North Carolina women’s soccer. Iowa wrestling. Arkansas track and field. Few schools are fortunate to host a college sports dynasty, and Suzanne Youculan’s ten national titles from 1987-2009 made Georgia gymnastics a national powerhouse. Yoculan went out on top with five straight national titles from 2005-2009 before she retired. Dynasties end, and it’s never easy going replacing a legendary coach. Jay Clark struggled to sustain the program’s success and has had much better results at LSU. Danna Durante managed three Super Six appearances from 2013-2016 but couldn’t bring home titles. With Yoculan’s blessing, Courtney Kupets Carter – one of Georgia’s superstars during the five straight titles in the 2000s – was brought in to recapture Georgia’s former glory and has been at the helm for five seasons.

Unfortunately Kupets Carter hasn’t returned Georgia to the level of the Yoculan era. The program has even slid from Durante’s time. Georgia finished 2021 ranked #18 and will finish the 2022 regular season out of the top 20. Meanwhile, programs like Florida, LSU, and even Auburn have taken steps forward. Top-ranked Oklahoma will be joining the SEC soon.

There is much more sentimental attachment to Kupets Carter than there is to someone like Crean. Kupets Carter is a beloved figure in Georgia sports history and one of its most accomplished athletes. She took over with a hearty endorsement from Suzanne Yoculan. Yoculan even assisted for a season while Kupets-Carter found her stride as head coach. There has been some bad luck with injuries, but the program shows no signs of returning to SEC contender or national Super Six status anytime soon.

Women’s Basketball

The women’s basketball program might present the most difficult situation for Brooks. Joni Taylor took a team to the SEC tournament final in 2021, was named SEC coach of the year, and is headed back to the NCAA tournament for the second straight season. That’s not a floundering program. Yet, due to Dennis Felton’s improbable run to the SEC tournament title in 2008, the women’s basketball program has gone the longest without adding to its Stegeman Coliseum banners. It’s been over 20 years since Kelly Miller’s buzzer-beater gave Georgia the 2001 SEC tournament championship. Georgia got as far as the NCAA Regional Final in 2004 and 2013 but came up just short of the Final Four. They haven’t returned to the Sweet 16 since.

Taylor’s results have been inconsistent over her seven seasons. This year marks just the first time she’s been able to string together consecutive NCAA tournament bids. Georgia has earned two top 16 national seeds in Taylor’s seven seasons, but they’ve been unable to sustain that level of play in the subsequent seasons. Last season’s SEC final appearance fizzled out in the second round of the NCAA tournament. A promising 2022 season that had Georgia approaching the top ten ended in an early-round exit at the SEC tournament. Recruiting seems to be on the upswing: Georgia will welcome the #7 signing class after inking the #14 class a year ago. Getting more out of these signing classes must be a priority.

The trap is complacency. The program has not come close to the futility of the men’s program, but neither has it met the standard Taylor embraced when she took over from Andy Landers. Georgia’s staff has remained unchanged since Taylor took over for the 2015-2016 season. The rest of the SEC has not stood still. Georgia shows signs of stability and even some progress in recruiting, but you also don’t want to plateau as a program that just makes it into the NCAA tournament and struggles to finish in the SEC top four. That was the state of the program when Landers decided it was time to step aside. Taylor’s program might be the closest of the three to adding another title, but are there steps Brooks can take to help Taylor get her program to the next level? How do you send the message that good should be better?

A common thread?

Recently ESPN’s Mark Schlabach went in-depth about the persistent issues with Georgia men’s basketball. The points are familiar ones to UGA basketball fans, but the details about Georgia’s recruiting approach in particular are still bewildering. Schalabach also brings up Georgia’s facilities. The practice facility was state of the art when it opened 15 years ago and is still a strong resource with dedicated practice, training, and locker space for all three programs. Stegeman Coliseum itself received a major facelift just a few years ago with improvements to the seating bowl and concourses. There is only so much that can be done to Stegeman without replacing it completely, and Georgia is close to that limit. A new facility is a separate discussion, but Georgia has invested quite a bit in capital improvements for these sports over the past two decades.

But capital spending is only one type of investment in the programs. The annual budgets provide the resources to operate day-to-day in those facilities. In 2015, Georgia’s football expenses were about $2 million below the SEC median. By 2020 Georgia was spending $7 million more on football than the median SEC school. Kirby Smart led a significant increase in the football support staff, recruiting resources, and other expenses to go along with capital projects like the West Endzone, indoor practice facility, and Butts-Mehre expansion.

Spending has increased on Georgia’s basketball programs, but they still lag relative to their SEC peers. For the reporting year 2020, Georgia spent $8.3 million on men’s basketball. LSU spent $9.3 million, Tennessee spent $13.1 million, South Carolina spent $8.2 million, and Kentucky blew everyone away with $19.1 million in men’s basketball expenses. For women’s basketball, Georgia spent $4.4 million. LSU spent $4.7 million, Kentucky spent $5.3 million, South Carolina spent $6.9 million, and Tennessee spent $7.3 million.

It’s not about the head coach’s salary. Crean earned $3.2 million, making him one of the 20 highest-paid coaches in the nation in 2020. Taylor likewise is paid well relative to the market. As with football, the annual budget allows a program to increase the support staff, have a larger pool of funds with which to attract better assistants, and provide better meals, travel, and other quality-of-life benefits for the players. Of course there’s not a direct relationship between spending and success, but Georgia’s relative thriftiness here isn’t done out of virtue. It’s no surprise though that Kentucky men’s basketball and Tennessee women’s basketball are among the biggest spenders. Kirby Smart made the case for an expansion of the football budget when he took the job. Will the athletic administration be as receptive if a new basketball coach makes a similar case?

The fans are already there

Tom Crean implored fans to pack Stegeman during his first two seasons, and they responded with sellouts in an unmistakable show of faith in the new coach. Georgia basketball was a hot ticket during the Anthony Edwards season even without a winning team on the court. Support has waned as the program failed to live up to its end of the deal. The GymDogs still draw large crowds and sold out a recent meet with Auburn as the large fan base built by Yoculan’s tireless showmanship persists through some lean years. Even women’s basketball drew large crowds during their championship and Final Four seasons. Georgia is indeed a football school, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a large number of Georgia fans who would like to see more from the winter sports and who are willing to show up and support those programs.

Fans will be watching how Josh Brooks handles the men’s basketball transition. It’s not only an opportunity to reverse the decades-long fortunes of that program. It’s also going to be a signal to fans of all of Stegeman’s occupants. What will be the standards for success? What level of investment and support can these programs expect? Can the same combination of institutional vision and resources that led to a title in Indianapolis also align to finally add more dates to Stegeman Coliseum’s banners?


Post What it takes to get us off the couch

Thursday May 20, 2021

Couldn’t describe my 2020 viewing habits better:

A number of fans were introduced to the pleasure of attending Man Cave Stadium last season and found easy access to things like restrooms and refreshments to be something of a pleasure.

As much as I hated to break my home game streak and go without one of the things I enjoy most, I have to admit that it was nice to set up in the backyard with all of the comforts of home steps away. Can’t even begin to calculate how much money I saved, too.

So why am I so excited to get back? I wrote this about opting out last fall:

For many of us the social element of gameday is as important as the action on the field. It’s an opportunity to bring together friends and groups from around the state (and beyond) and rekindle family bonds and traditions that span generations.

That’s the advantage the in-person experience has over watching at home. With the social aspect of gameday significantly (and necessarily) curtailed last year, it made it a fairly easy decision to watch from home. Now that it’s looking like 100% capacity and a fairly normal experience on tap for the 2021 season, I’m more than ready to be back.

I do agree that Barrett Sallee might be stretching it a bit saying fans will “never take the joy of watching a game in person for granted again.” It might not take that long either – ask me about joy around the second half of a hot September guarantee game against UAB.


Post 20 disjointed thoughts about a disjointed 2020 season

Saturday September 26, 2020
  1. Nothing is guaranteed. It wasn’t a given that we’d get here, and each of the ten games we’re able to see is a gift. I’ve written plenty about my personal decisions regarding the season, but I’ve always been more optimistic about the season itself. That’s not because of some cold indifference to the realities. The SEC has the resources to study and minimize the risks; many other conferences and teams do not. That doesn’t mean that the league has avoided localized outbreaks. It just means that the protocols have been put in place to manage those outbreaks. In doing so the SEC is in a position to forge ahead with a compelling schedule while being in a position to take advantage of the improved testing and other advances that have allowed other leagues back in the pool.
  2. I’ve been especially impressed by Kirby Smart’s navigation of the offseason. Georgia has had coaching changes, attrition, injuries, and of course positive tests. At no point did you ever get the sense that he was out of step with the moment. Smart’s statements about player safety and the program’s response to social issues have avoided the tone-deaf missteps we saw at other programs. Georgia has had its share of positive tests, but the response was to follow the protocols in place, avoid panic and hysteria, and push forward. The result is a team that has largely held together since early June and been able to prepare as much as SEC and NCAA guidelines allowed.
  3. In a way, the uncertainty of this season is a bit thrilling. We’ve never done a season like this before, and there’s no analogue for what we’re about to see. There’s a single bye week but no break at all from the SEC grind. In Georgia’s case, that’s especially true through the first half of the season. Things could get wild, and that’s before we talk about more serious matters like canceled or postponed games and rosters thrown into chaos by quarantine.
  4. In strictly football terms, I’m excited for this season because of the format: ten SEC games. If the league is able to make it through the schedule, we should see something special. The plan is to return to scheduling-as-usual next year, but hopefully we’ll get too much of a good thing this year to ever want to go back. People talk about an asterisk for this year’s champion, but the team that emerges from a 10-game SEC slate will be more worthy than any previous team.
  5. I will miss playing Tech. I know that game means less to an increasing number of fans, but it’s a series that needs to resume after this season.
  6. With several other conferences announcing their return, the playoff committee will have quite a job. They’ll have to weigh teams playing a different number of games at different times of the fall with few intersectional games to aid comparison between conferences. If we get to that point, there will be enough outrage and talking points to fuel weeks of punditry. Just enjoy the season. The ten-game SEC season is the main course. If there’s more beyond that, great.
  7. D’Wan Mathis will start at quarterback.
  8. I’m less confident that Mathis will finish the season as the starter. That’s not a knock on him. We’re still waiting for J.T. Daniels to be cleared. Mathis could take the decision away from the coaches ala Jake Fromm in 2017. We could see shared playing time like 2018, though hopefully Monken’s rotation would have more purpose and tactical reasoning behind it. If we do see multiple quarterbacks, the best case is that Daniels can be slowly worked in. Even if he’s cleared, he’s still a year removed from knee surgery (and has had cleanup work since.) It’s much better if he can be used when and if it makes sense and not because the team’s hand is forced. Worst case is Mathis flops and Daniels must be rushed along. Scratch that – worst case is that Mathis struggles, Daniels isn’t cleared or ready, and Georgia must turn again to a true freshman.
  9. Count me among those who expects Monken to be an upgrade. I’m not looking for anything specific scheme-wise from Monken. He’s been around long enough to have a varied toolkit. I’m most interested to see how the pieces come together. Is he able to run what he wants with new starters at every position but center? Is he making the most of Georgia’s talent advantages and doing what he can to compensate for disadvantages? Does so much change on offense manifest itself in turnovers, sacks, penalties, or miscommunication with players and coaches not on the same page?
  10. Monken’s not the only new coach on offense, and I’d like to see the differences Matt Luke brings to Georgia’s offensive line. For the bowl game his only concern was cobbling together a functional line. Now he’s had some time to get to know and evaluate his unit. Pittman was a wonderful coach and recruiter, but he also had a preference for a large, physical line that suited Georgia’s straight-ahead power style of play. The pendulum might swing back under Luke towards a lighter line that might work better with Monken’s more open and faster-paced offense. This isn’t so much a good/bad question as it is curiosity about how a new coach tries to solve a slightly different set of problems.
  11. I’m bullish on Zeus. He has the skills and size to be a powerful SEC tailback, and the second year after an ACL surgery is almost as bankable as the second-year coach effect. I’m not as sold yet on Cook. We’re told he just hasn’t been used properly, but he’s also had several opportunities to make big plays. It hasn’t clicked yet. With the changes to the offense, there aren’t many excuses left. Hopefully he thrives, but younger backs like Milton are waiting for their opening.
  12. Georgia lost six defensive linemen from last year’s roster, and there’s still more excitement about that unit than I’ve seen in years. I see why – there’s a ton of experience, bona-fide stars like Herring and Davis, and Travon Walker was one of last season’s top freshmen. Any list of newcomers to watch in 2020 leads with Jalen Carter. Tray Scott has quietly upgraded the defensive front year after year.
  13. The overall talent on defense is staggering. The questions then become about roles and the best ways to deploy that talent. Roquan Smith and J.R. Reed became invaluable not only for their individual contributions but also for their roles orchestrating the defense on the field. Even among a galaxy of stars, someone like Nakobe Dean might shine brighter this year. The bright middle linebacker saw plenty of time behind Crowder and Rice as a true freshman and is in a position to become that next defensive leader.
  14. One thing I’d like to see from the defense is for one or more of the outside linebackers to emerge with an all-conference season. The depth is ridiculous with Ojulari, Smith, Johnson, Grant, Anderson, and now Sherman. These are all special players with unique skill sets (just watch how Anderson is used when he’s in the game.) I’d just like to see someone have the kind of season where it’s tough to take them out of the game.
  15. I’ve already mentioned Jalen Carter, but we’re also hearing good things about freshmen receivers Jermaine Burton and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint. Georgia will need early contributions from those freshmen receivers as Blaylock is out for the season and the tight end position unsettled.
  16. Why is the TE position unsettled? We’re still not sure of its role in Monken’s offense. This might be one of those instances I mentioned above where what Monken wants to run is constrained by personnel. Tre McKitty is out in the short term. Seldom-used John FitzPatrick as the likely starter. Great expectations came with the signing of 5* Darnell Washington from Las Vegas. He’ll play, but he’s still getting into playing shape.
  17. I’m not as concerned with the offensive line as I am other areas of the offense. There’s plenty of experience despite four new starters. It’s still a big job to replace two first-round tackles. Salyer has the pedigree to be just fine at left tackle, but there aren’t many options if he’s not up to the job.
  18. “Explosive” is this year’s “havoc.” After last year’s South Carolina debacle, I noted that “not all successful plays are equal.” The explosive runs that had defined Georgia in 2017 and 2018 disappeared. Though the running game could still get nearly 5 yards per carry, the lack of explosive runs meant that the offense had to work its way down the field in smaller chunks. That was too much to ask, and we all saw the results. With no real threat to break big plays in either the running game or the downfield passing game, the offense suffocated.
  19. It looks as if Jack Podlesny has won the placekicking job (again, for now.) It’s good to see some special teams coverage in among the daily QB updates. We’ve seen some spectacular special teams failures in the first three weeks, and Georgia is only replacing the placekicker, both returners, and the special teams coach. These are the areas that might seem like a nuisance at Arkansas but can turn games against Auburn or Alabama.
  20. I admit it’s been tough at times to get my head around the upcoming season and to put nearly the same energy into it especially knowing that I won’t be there in person to see it. There are enough reminders that nothing, including our beloved college football, is close to business as usual. I’ve come to grips with that – there are circumstances, issues, and causes that can’t and shouldn’t go away just because the season is going forward. In a year where we’ve been forced to take things a day at a time, I’m grateful that this day is finally Game Day. May we have many more.

Post Not a 2019 season preview

Friday August 30, 2019

It’s here! Time to load up the car for a road trip to Nashville. An invasion by Georgia fans is almost expected now for any road game, and Nashville is usually happy to accommodate. This isn’t a preview – there are plenty of those elsewhere – but more of a dump of things on my mind as we head into the season.

There haven’t been many surprises over the offseason, and any concerns have to do with the incremental improvements that turn a playoff contender into a champion. In other words, we more or less know the cards Georgia is holding, and we know they’re good ones. That can make for boring blogging at times as there are only so many ways to say that Georgia has a good team.

Kirby Smart touched on an obvious but important point at SEC Media Days in July: how weird is it for Georgia to be measured relative to a team not even on its schedule? As Smart reminds us, the Dawgs have a 12-game row to hoe first. The assumption of a postseason date with Alabama implies a couple of things: first, anything short of another division title would be a serious setback. Second, Georgia is nearly to the point as a program that Georgia advancing to face Alabama is expected as much as Alabama advancing to face Georgia. The Georgia program is now measured in all things relative to Alabama, and that in itself says quite a lot.

The Grown-Up in the Room

It seems as if he was hired yesterday, but only four SEC head coaches now have more experience at their current school than Kirby Smart. Entering his fourth season Smart has created a team and program largely of his own making. There are a handful of redshirt seniors (Blankenship!) and others who committed to Mark Richt for the 2016 class, but 68 of Georgia’s 83 scholarship players are juniors or below.

Smart, for the first time, is welcoming new coordinators. Replacing just a single coordinator has been enough to trip up other Georgia coaches. Hiring from within might lend itself to some continuity, but was that taking the easy way out? That’s no disrespect to Coley or Lanning who have earned their roles, but Georgia didn’t seem to conduct much of a search for its coordinators outside of the 706 area code. Why would they? Both the offense and defense were doing well, and these men certainly had their hands in that success.

There were two things keeping Georgia fans from worrying too much about two new coordinators. First was, again, the Alabama factor. Bama loses coaches all the time and chugs on, so why shouldn’t Georgia? That’s assuming quite a bit though about the state of Georgia’s program. Alabama has earned that benefit of the doubt; I’m not so sure Georgia has. Second is the presence of Kirby Smart. We know what kind of offense Smart prefers, and we know this team is meant to run that certain style. Coley might introduce his own wrinkles, but this isn’t Auburn bringing in Tony Franklin for a wholesale retooling of the offense’s identity. It’s a similar story on defense. It’s unfair to Mel Tucker (and Lanning) to call them figureheads running Smart’s defense just as it was wrong to say that about Smart and Saban at Alabama. What’s true though is that Smart will set the tone in both the players the program recruits and the insistence that the defense meets the same standards of composure and physicality he’s set for the entire program. Certain aspects – like this season’s emphasis on havoc – might change from year to year, but you’re never concerned that Kirby Smart doesn’t know what he wants from his defense.

But if our faith in the new coordinators lies largely in the belief that they’re instruments of Kirby Smart’s preferences, Smart’s own role in decisions deserves greater scrutiny. That doesn’t just mean fake punts late in the SEC championship game. If Coley gets away from the run a little too soon, will Smart be willing to correct? Hopefully it won’t take a Chubb/Michel type of meeting. If an opponent makes adjustments to attack Georgia’s offensive line as LSU did, will Smart be quick to recognize it and help craft a response? Can Smart step in when the defense isn’t getting lined up properly against hurry-up offenses?

The results on the field and on the recruiting trail show that Kirby Smart can build a winning program and culture. Will we see how Smart himself has improved with three years’ experience at the helm? This might be a harsh way of putting it, but will the coaches prove to be at the level of the players they’ve brought in?

Return on Investment

Smart has been the beneficiary of a tremendous investment in the program. Both donors and administrators have aligned to provide Smart with an impressive coaching and support staff, a jewel of an indoor facility, and an eye-popping West endzone addition to Sanford Stadium. We’ve seen the pockets opened for recruiting to the point where no program spends more to attract top talent. Soon the program will begin raising funds for the next capital project – a football facility and much larger weight room adjacent to the Butts-Mehre building. Will donors be as generous as they have been, or do they need to see at least another playoff appearance first? Is this an important year for Smart – not in terms of job stability but in terms of sustaining the no-questions-asked investment that has fueled his first four years?

Home Turf

These Georgia players have been in plenty of big games, and the pressure of expectations is last year’s news. The difference this year is that a couple of the biggest games of the year are at home. None of these players were around for September 2013 (or the 2015 Alabama game, but the less said about that the better.) About the biggest home game these players have seen is the 2017 Mississippi State game. Georgia hasn’t dropped a game at Sanford Stadium since 2016, but they also haven’t faced opponents this good.

For road or neutral site games you can put on the “business trip” blinders and insulate yourself from most things other than the business at hand. That’s tough-to-impossible at home. When there’s a big game coming up it’s all anyone will talk about that week in class, on campus, and all over Athens. Media will come in starting with Kirby’s press conference on Monday, and it won’t let up. If Gameday is here, as it will likely be for Notre Dame, the broadcasts will start on Thursday. I want to see if the coaches – and, more importantly, the team leadership – can get the team to tune out those distractions and prepare. It’s something Georgia is going to have to deal with a lot more often if Kirby builds the kind of program we expect and Georgia becomes everyone’s biggest game.

Something to Prove

Beyond big game hype, the Notre Dame game will come with something a little extra. We all saw the tweets last December from Georgia’s players as they watched Clemson dismantle Notre Dame. That mindset carried over to the bowl game, and we saw what happened.

I’m sure Notre Dame’s coaches will remind their players what Georgia’s players think of them. I hope Georgia’s coaches use it too. You said it, now back it up. Notre Dame was in the playoff last year, and the Dawgs weren’t. Do something about it.

The Z-Factor

Georgia fans have been anticipating Zamir White’s debut since his pivotal commitment in 2017. Remember – at the time he was Georgia’s highest-rated tailback commitment of the internet era. Two major knee injuries have pumped the brakes on any next-Herschel (or even next-Chubb) hype, but the idea that someone that good is on the roster and might be able to contribute has been enticing enough to keep the what-ifs alive in the back of our minds.

Reports out of camp have been promising with White showing a physical running style and no lingering effects from his injuries. Nearly every Georgia back has been lauded this offseason for his pass catching ability out of the backfield, and White has held his own there. There’s no need to rush him into 20 carries per game, but there also seems to be no reason why he shouldn’t be a part of the gameplan from the start. We should be confident enough in Brian Herrien’s ability to give Swift some relief, but Zamir White anywhere near his original strength gives Georgia a legitimate 1A and 1B punch in the backfield and suddenly makes this unit look fairly deep. It would allow the coaches some flexibility with Cook, put less of a load on Swift (who himself has battled injuries), and let the coaches approach the tailback rotation strategically.

White’s 2019 could even have ripple effects beyond the current team. Georgia currently has one five-star tailback committed and, according to reports, is near the top of the list for a second. It wouldn’t be the first time Georgia signed two five-star tailbacks (White himself along with James Cook were such a duo), but it would be unprecedented with White and Cook still on the roster. It’s not unthinkable that any prospective tailback commitment will be watching White and Cook for a sense of how crowded things might be at the top of the depth chart in 2020 if D’Andre Swift goes pro.

Depth

Georgia, according to Rivals, has put together three straight top three signing classes (and two straight #1 classes). Quibble about the exact rankings, but there is arguably more talent now in Athens than at any point in the program’s history. How does that increased talent level begin to manifest itself? Georgia has always had standout players and NFL-quality talent. The difference now is in depth. We saw an example of that depth last year when a player of the quality of Cade Mays could step in when Andrew Thomas had to leave the South Carolina game. We saw defensive backs Eric Stokes and Otis Reese push and even unseat starters during the season.

Depth offers you both of those luxuries: options when inevitable injuries occur and continuous competition that reinforces standards. We’ve already seen competition shuffle things around in the preseason. Hopefully we won’t have to discover how resilient the team’s depth is to injuries.

Since we started with Alabama, we’ll finish there too. Georgia’s collapses on both sides of the ball in the fourth quarter have led to narrow losses in the past two meetings with the Tide. Key injuries – Wims in 2017 and Walker in 2018 – couldn’t be overcome. This is where you expect to see depth show up. Will the team be able to rotate players throughout the season to have something in the tank for the postseason? Will more position groups develop players ready to step in with minimal loss of production if a starter is unavailable? Georgia should now be deep enough that you don’t have to stretch to get the right 11 on the field for most any situation, and not many teams can say that.


Post Fromm is perfect for Georgia but not a Heisman candidate

Thursday July 11, 2019

Jake Fromm is an outstanding quarterback and the best possible person to lead Georgia’s offense. He’s beaten out and held off two higher-rated quarterbacks because he does exactly what Kirby Smart and the staff ask of him: run the offense efficiently, make plays to sustain drives, and avoid critical mistakes. He’s been a leader from the moment he took over from Eason, and he’ll likely be a high draft pick when he chooses to leave Georgia. The Dawgs aren’t going to go far this year without Fromm playing at least as well as he did in his first two seasons.

With that said, he’s not going to win the Heisman. Put another way, if Fromm is even in the Heisman conversation at year end, something has gone very, very wrong with Georgia’s offensive identity.

Individual moments of excellence are part of any Heisman season, and it doesn’t hurt to be on a winning team. Fromm checks those boxes. Fromm’s stats last season were more than respectable: 67.4% completion rate, 2,761 yards, 30 TD / 6 INT, and 9.0 yards per attempt. They’re comparable to the stats from his freshman campaign in 2017 during Georgia’s run to the national title game. But compared with the ten most recent quarterbacks to win the Heisman since Tim Tebow in 2007, those numbers aren’t competitive.

These ten Heisman-winning quarterbacks have met one of two criteria:

  • Gaudy passing numbers: 6 of the 10 threw for at least 4,000 yards in their Heisman seasons. Half threw for over 40 TD.
  • Dual-threat ability: 7 of the 10 rushed for at least 699 yards in their Heisman seasons. 7 accounted for at least 10 rushing touchdowns.

Of course most of them showed some combination of the two – that’s why they stood out over everyone else. All threw for at least 3,200 yards except for Cam Newton, and he made up for it with 20 rushing TDs and nearly 1,500 rushing yards. All rushed for at least 5 TD except for Jameis Winston, but he passed for over 4,000 yards and 40 TD. Kyler Murray set a ridiculous bar with over 4,300 passing yards, 1,000 rushing yards, and a total of 54 touchdowns.

Heisman quarterbacks are expected to be at least a credible threat to run the ball, and Fromm hasn’t shown that to date. Oh, he’s not a potted plant and has the vision and creativity to move around the pocket. But in two seasons, he has a grand total of 52 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Last year he had zero rushing touchdowns and negative rushing yardage. And that was with a five-star quarterback on the bench behind him. With an unsettled backup situation in 2019, how willing do you expect the staff to be to call many designed runs for Fromm?

If they’re not going to create Heisman moments on the ground, quarterbacks have to put up head-spinning numbers through the air. Sam Bradford only rushed for 47 yards in 2008, but he threw for over 4,700 yards and a whopping 50 touchdowns. Baker Mayfield had 311 rushing yards in 2017 but passed for 43 TD and over 4,600 yards at a completion rate over 70%.

With Fromm’s rushing stats, he’d have to have about 75% more passing yards and 15-20 more TDs this year than in either of his first two seasons to get into Bradford territory. Does that sound like Georgia’s offense? The Dawgs might have a new offensive coordinator, but there’s no chance that Kirby Smart will prefer anything but heavy doses of Swift and the other backs behind one of the nation’s biggest and best lines. (*) If Georgia is as successful as we hope they’ll be, think about how infrequently the Dawgs pass the ball when they’re salting away a comfortable second half lead. Consider also the amount of production gone from the receiver and tight end positions, and it might be an impressive feat just to approach 3,000 yards through the air.

Enjoy Jake Fromm for what he is and appreciate his mastery of his role on this team.

* – Is Swift a more realistic Heisman candidate? Georgia’s recent tailbacks haven’t been Heisman finalists largely due to how well-rounded the group has been. Sharing carries and production has been great for the team and the endurance of the individual backs, but no one back has been able to pile up huge numbers. That might change a little this year depending on how much Zamir White can contribute or whether Cook, Herrien, or McIntosh can prove themselves worthy of splitting carries with a healthy Swift.


Post Preseason pessimism? In 2019?

Thursday July 11, 2019

Preseason magazines have been out for weeks or even months, and we’ve had time to digest how the pundits view the Dawgs this year. (Short answer: pretty good!) Most expect at least another SEC East title, and more than a few have Georgia back in the playoffs. In practical terms, that either means an undefeated regular season (making the outcome of the SECCG more or less irrelevant) or an outright SEC championship. Not a bad year in either case.

We’re in that brief lull now between Independence Day and Media Days, the unofficial start of football season, so maybe it’s a good time for one last sober look at things before the preseason news machine really gets going. Seth Emerson’s got things started off with a painful reminder of some of the close calls and what-ifs ($) of the past decade. We’ll see whether this team joins that list. I’m actually pretty high on the team’s prospects, but it’s worth going through position-by-position and looking at some of the potential stumbling blocks that we would look back on as reasons why the 2019 team didn’t meet expectations.

Injuries go without saying, and all bets are off with a 2013-style epidemic. Still, Georgia is deep enough at some positions to weather the inevitable injury, and occasionally an injury can open the door for a younger player who just needed an opportunity. At other positions, depth *is* the story, and we’ll be sweating the health of a couple of starters all season.

Quarterback: With D’wan Mathis’s availability in question, Georgia’s quarterback depth is as precarious as it was last season. The difference is that you’re replacing Justin Fields with Stetson Bennett. Bennett has experience in the Georgia system but hasn’t seen more than mop-up duty. He’s earned the respect of teammates, and it’s likely he would have earned the backup role over a true freshman even if Mathis were cleared to play. Still, Georgia hasn’t had this much uncertainty in its backup QB since maybe 2015.

As for Jake Fromm, is there anything left to prove after two seasons at the helm? He’s been outstanding within Georgia’s system, and he improved his production and efficiency last season while maintaining a solid 9 yards per attempt. Fromm hasn’t been asked to do much more because, let’s face it, the run-heavy system has worked much more often than not. Has Fromm had his defining moment yet? I’ll always come back to this amazing play against Oklahoma or the pass to Wims that set up the winning FG at Notre Dame. This year I’d like to see Fromm put things on his shoulders when things aren’t going so well in the running game. Defenses will challenge him and the passing game by selling out against the run, and it will be up to Fromm to elevate an inexperienced but talented group of receivers. Let’s put it bluntly: Georgia hasn’t managed a point or even a drive longer than 28 yards in the fourth quarter of the past two games against Alabama. Can Fromm and the Georgia offense find a way to close out their biggest games this year?

Tailback: I can’t even feign pessimism about Swift, so we’ll focus on what would come after. Herrien has proven to be a solid role player especially as a receiver out of the backfield. James Cook turned heads in practice as a true freshman, but he found it tough to earn carries outside of garbage time behind Holyfield and Swift. Cook is also coming off ankle surgery. Kenny McIntosh is the lone incoming freshman – a big, physical back with purported pass-catching skills. Then there’s Zeus. Zamir White’s ability to come back from two ACL surgeries is the bellwether for how comfortable many fans feel about the running game. If he’s close to full strength, Georgia will have yet another formidable duo with considerable depth behind it. If not, the Dawgs will have to hope Herrien takes a big step forward as a senior, Cook turns the corner, or McIntosh is ready to go out of the gate.

Receiver: Graduation and the draft took its toll on the receiver position. Fortunately sophomore Jeremiah Holloman emerged as a favorite target in 2018. That would be reassuring if Holloman hadn’t been involved in an alleged domestic violence incident that led to his dismissal from the team. Without Holloman Georgia’s returning receivers accounted for just 12 total receptions last season, and nine of those were by Tyler Simmons. Two tailbacks (Swift and Herrien) had twice as many receiving touchdowns in 2018 as all of the returning receivers and tight ends.

Simmons and Trey Blount shouldn’t be overlooked especially when it comes to their important roles in the running game. Both were on the field as blockers in the Rose Bowl on the unforgettable winning play. Georgia has added size and speed at the position in the past two recruiting classes with multiple top-100 prospects, and of course Demetris Robertson is lurking there waiting to make an impact after a year in the program. Is Robertson’s adjustment period a cautionary example for the incoming talent? How long will it take them to get up to speed in the offense, and how physical are they willing to be on the perimeter? It might be enough just to ask freshmen to run the right routes, but you don’t get explosive running plays without downfield blocking.

Tight end: If you thought the receiver position was depleted, the tight ends invite you to hold their beer. Attrition leaves Georgia with only one returning scholarship tight end: senior Charlie Woerner whose career 25 receptions, 298 yards, and zero touchdowns by default make him a top returning target in the passing game. Georgia has added a graduate transfer (with 8 career receptions) but will otherwise fill out the TE depth chart with freshmen – one of which is coming off of knee surgery. Will Georgia have to dip into its deep OL talent pool to shore up the TE spot?

Offensive line: The OL is usually one of the more anonymous units on a team, but not at Georgia. Its position coach is a superstar, there are likely high NFL draft picks at both tackle spots, and there’s enough depth stockpiled that former five-star prospects will be fighting just to get on the field. Georgia’s line is its strength and its identity. So why should anyone be worried about the offensive line?

The 2018 LSU game is worth examining. LSU made adjustments after Georgia showed some success on the ground and was able to frustrate Georgia at the line of scrimmage. “Orgeron said the key adjustment involved changing up the defensive fronts, creating different angles, with Aranda expertly mixing in different personnel to create problems for the Bulldogs.” Not many teams had the talent LSU had up front, but those who do can use scheme to attack Georgia’s size up front if the Bulldog coaching staff isn’t prepared to make adjustments of their own. Texas had similar success getting into the backfield.

You also want to see the line step up when it’s time to get physical and the defense is expecting the run. No line is going to dominate when teams send more bodies than you can block, but it was incongruous to see Georgia’s offense struggle to punch the ball in down around the goal line. Until the passing game with all of the new receivers proves itself, expect this line to face stacked defensive fronts. The ultimate test for this line: Georgia hasn’t rushed for more than 4 yards per carry in the 2017 and 2018 losses to Alabama. It’s a tough ask to get the better of the good defensive lines of Auburn and Alabama, but this line (and its coach) won’t be judged by how good the running game looks against Murray State.

Defensive line: It’s one of Georgia’s more experienced units, but it’s also under the most scrutiny. Whether you put the lack of pass rush on the line or the linebackers or some combination, Georgia hasn’t been very disruptive up front. The defensive line has also been one of the few positions absent on Draft Day, calling into question the staff’s ability to develop players at this key position. We know injuries have taken their toll among the veteran linemen, and underclassmen Jordan Davis and Malik Herring took advantage of those openings to earn playing time. The defense’s mandate to create havoc plays begins by affecting the line of scrimmage. For that to happen Georgia has to have big seasons from seniors like Clark, Rochester, and Marshall while hoping that freshman Travon Walker has the kind of impact Davis had a year ago.

Linebackers: Georgia has recruited well at linebacker, but the outside linebackers face questions about their pass rush while the inside backers have something to prove against the run. There might be no more talented group on the team than the outside linebackers especially with Nolan Smith and Jermaine Johnson added to the group. This is the year you would expect to see all of the potential begin to turn into production in the form of a fearsome pass rush and general havoc behind the line of scrimmage. But this unit will depend on the line getting that initial push and occupying blockers. Can the coaches find the right mix of every-down outside linebackers and pass rush specialists?

The search for the next Roquan Smith continues at ILB. The group will be challenged to make stops near the line of scrimmage and improve the defense’s #53 ranking in rushing S&P+. A healthy Monty Rice should make a difference. Is experience enough for Tae Crowder to hold on to his starting role? The staff is waiting for Channing Tindall and Quay Walker to make a move, and few freshmen have more expectations on them out of the gate than Nakobe Dean. Still, it took a couple of years even for Roquan to become Roquan. Will Georgia rely on another year of experience to get the improvement it needs, or will it take a newcomer shaking things up?

Secondary: The big concern is replacing Deandre Baker. Eric Stokes emerged last year as one answer, but that still leaves the other side of the field. There are several candidates – Divaad Wilson was competing for a starting job a year ago until an injury sidelined him, DJ Daniel brings JUCO experience, and Tyson Campbell now has a year of experience under his belt. This is a battle we can expect to linger on into the season, and you hope there’s some kind of resolution before Ian Book and Notre Dame come to town. Coaches weren’t afraid to make midseason changes as the true freshman Campbell struggled, and they won’t hesitate this year either as there is no shortage of options.

Reed and LeCounte are established at safety, but the offseason development of LeCounte will be worth checking out. He’s been candid about his deficiencies a year ago and worked to address them though he was still the team’s leading tackler. Even if he is ready to be more physical this year, the fact that he and Reed were the top two tacklers by a clear margin suggests that too many plays, especially running plays, were getting into the secondary. If the safeties are that involved in run support once again, it’s a sign that things haven’t improved along the line and at ILB. As with cornerback, the coaches weren’t shy about trying Otis Reese and others when things weren’t working. Freshman Lewis Cine will be one of the first off the bench if physicality becomes an issue at safety.

Specialists: Rodrigo Blankenship has earned his celebrity status, though we saw in the 2018 SEC Championship how even one missed kick can open the door for a comeback. Blankenship’s most impressive step forward in 2018 was a big uptick in touchback percentage, but ho boy was it an adventure for the coverage team on the few kickoffs that were returned. With consecutive top signing classes, special teams units should be stocked with young talent. Can they improve on last season’s shaky coverage? Mecole Hardman’s departure means that Georgia must find a new returner, and ball security is a minimum job requirement. Jake Camarda had an up and down season as a freshman punter and was ninth among SEC punters. Will he be more consistent and productive with a year under his belt? Will Kirby Smart be gunshy about any more special teams trickeration after some high-profile disasters in 2018?

That’s enough hand-wringing for one preseason. On to the preseason happy talk.


Post Was 3rd-and-Grantham really a thing?

Friday September 22, 2017

tl;dr: Yes.

Have you heard? Todd Grantham is returning to Athens this weekend. I’m nothing if not a sucker for a good storyline, and this one…rates about a 2 out of 10.

Still, all of this Grantham returns! coverage got me wondering whether “third and Grantham” was a legitimate gripe or just more “run the damn ball Bobo” blathering where confirmation bias magnified any third down conversion. How did Grantham’s defenses really rank on third down?

  • 2010: 79th (41.86%)
  • 2011: 3rd (28.93%)
  • 2012: 37th (36.54%)
  • 2013: 64th (39.49%)

Grantham supervised the transition from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4, and 2010 saw some growing pains that began to pay off with consecutive division titles in 2011 and 2012. 2011 stands out. Georgia went from a 6-7 team in 2010 to the SEC championship in Grantham’s second year thanks in large part to a top ten defense which, as you might expect, did very well on third down (or on most any down.) The amazing first half against LSU in the 2011 SEC Championship game was Grantham’s defense at its best. The 2012 defense was stacked with talent – Jones, Ogletree, Commings, Rambo, and on. Though the whole 2012 team was probably more well-rounded and in a better position to compete for a national title due to a more potent offense, the 2012 defense showed a fatal flaw against the run. Georgia’s rushing defense dropped from an impressive 11th nationally in 2011 to 81st in 2012. The Tennessee game was a track meet, and we won’t discuss the South Carolina game. It wasn’t until the Florida game and November that the defense really began to look like the sum of its parts (thanks Shawn Williams!)

So, yes, Georgia’s defense was excellent on third down in 2011 and decent in 2012, but they were decidedly average or below-average in Grantham’s other two years in Athens. The slide from 3rd to 37th to 64th on third down didn’t do much to quash the “third and Grantham” meme. In the eyes of many fans, his departure after the 2013 season just saved someone from making a decision a year or two later.

“Third and Grantham” didn’t just come about because of third down conversions – it was about third and long. Is there anything behind that? For answers we can look at opponents’ performance on passing downs.
(Stats are from Football Outsiders who define Passing Downs as “second down with 8 or more yards to go or third or fourth down with 5 or more yards to go.”) In other words, how well does the defense do when they might reasonably be expecting a pass? Grantham’s defenses were never (relatively) terrible in those situations and were never ranked worse than 47th on passing downs. At the same time, with the exception of Grantham’s first year in 2010, the defense’s performance on passing downs was worse than on standard downs. In 2012 and 2013, it was much worse.

Year Std. Downs S&P+ Rank Pass. Downs S&P+ Rank
2010 38 29
2011 9 17
2012 23 47
2013 23 44

When you do a fairly good job on standard downs to set up longer conversions, you expect to be in good shape to get off the field. That didn’t happen. Again, Georgia did better than most on passing downs, but they were relatively weaker in those situations than on standard downs. In 2013, Georgia allowed conversions on nearly 40% of third downs and ranked in the mid-40s on passing downs. It’s clear why the “third and Grantham” meme that appeared during his first season really took hold towards the end of his time in Athens.

Did “third and Grantham” come along to Starkville? Not in the way we think of it. The MSU defense has been impressive on third down in 2017. They are currently among the top ten in the nation, allowing conversions on just 21.4% of third downs through three games. Their defensive success rate on passing downs is 10.7%, good for 4th in the nation. When you’re that adept at stopping drives, you give your offense more possessions, and it’s no surprise then that MSU is among the highest-scoring teams in the nation. If Georgia wants to slow Fitzgerald and his productive offense, there isn’t a much better solution than maintaining possession and moving the chains. Georgia’s challenge on offense is to find success against a defense that has, so far, made “third and Grantham” something to anticipate rather than dread.


Post A trip to remember

Friday September 15, 2017

It’s been a rough week without power and internet access since we returned from Chicago and South Bend, but I wanted to get a few posts out about the trip.

Our group arrived Thursday, and the flight up was reminiscent of earlier trips to Tempe and Boulder. Georgia fans in good spirits (and drinking good spirits) filled the plane, and that became a commonplace sight throughout the trip. We used Chicago as our base and did the Cubs/Dawgs/Falcons triple-header. For several of us, it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience to check off three of the most iconic venues in sports. It looked as if we weren’t alone, and many smiles, “Go Dawgs!”, and even a few barks were exchanged with thousands of fans throughout the weekend. The experience of being a Road Dawg is a treasure. It’s not always inexpensive, and it can be tough to leave family and other obligations for a distant football game, but it’s almost always worth it. I hope every dedicated Georgia fan can experience a big road game.

I was impressed with the folks behind the Dawg Days events in which thousands of fans participated. I can only speak for my group’s experience, but everything went smoothly – pre-event communication, registration, transportation, and of course the events themselves. It was a well-organized operation, and it even handled the sudden Cubs’ time change. Of course drink and bathroom lines can always be shorter, but that’s a fact of life when you offer free beer to Georgia tailgaters.

That brings us to the game and the campus. $400 million buys you some nice stadium improvements, and it showed. The exterior facade of the stadium blended into the surrounding buildings. Wide concourses had almost a vintage feel, modernized with all of the conveniences. It’s natural to compare the results of this renovation with the needs of Sanford Stadium, but that’s a whole other post for some offseason.

A friend called it “Masters Football.” The stadium wasn’t lit up with marquee boards, there was no find-the-leprechaun-behind-the-french-fries game, and in-game messages highlighted faculty achievements and other points of pride. The only blemish was piping in music, especially on opponent third downs, but that’s kind of a given now. (And with several of the music selections Atlanta hip-hop, perhaps they were just trying to make us feel at home.) The campus of course was immaculate with nearly every Georgia fan seeking out a photo opportunity in front of the Golden Dome or Touchdown Jesus.

The quantity of Georgia fans in South Bend shook a lot of us. Even Georgia fans who expected a large turnout were overwhelmed and didn’t expect it to be that big. I was giddy and immensely proud of the turnout, and I’m relieved that we left a fairly good impression. I don’t blame Notre Dame fans for being put off by an opponent taking over their stadium, but I agree with Michael that the Georgia turnout should be considered the highest compliment to Notre Dame. I don’t know that as many Georgia fans would travel to Penn State or Nebraska, though we’d have an above-average showing as we did for Arizona State and Colorado. Regardless of Notre Dame’s current relevancy, college football fans have to acknowledge the program’s place in our history. Most any program’s DNA has some common threads with Notre Dame whether it’s directly (Harry Mehre) or indirectly (Vince Dooley). If you want to go deeper than I care to here, you can explore Notre Dame’s embodiment of northern college football or even dive into Savannah Catholicism. For whatever reasons, we had to be there. A fun city like Chicago nearby added to the appeal, and the opportunity to take in Wrigley Field and Soldier Field as well as Notre Dame made the trip a must for me.

Seeing the red was impressive enough, but the lights during the fourth quarter fanfare took your breath away. The colors were tough to pick out in far corners of the stadium, but there was no mistaking the breadth of the individual lights from nearly every section of the stadium. There were audible gasps, and you can hear the roar growing from the Georgia fans as they realized the magnitude of the Bulldog presence. I heard a Notre Dame observer on the WSLS podcast talk about how demoralizing that moment was for the home crowd, and I wonder what it did for the teams. Georgia’s players and coaches have been effusive with their praise for the road crowd, and I would bet that it took a little wind out of the sails of the home team.

I’ve been a proponent of keeping these big games on campus, though I realize it’s swimming upstream agaisnt the money to be made from neutral site games. Kirby Smart has expressed his preference for the big neutral site games. Fortunately this home-and-home was negotiated before the coaching change. It’s a fact that the interests of the fans don’t always align themselves with what’s best for the team. Georgia could have simply scheduled another lightweight home game as they will in 2018. Speaking for my wallet, a trip of this magnitude isn’t workable every year or even every other year (especially if Jacksonville is an annual ritual,) but I’m already looking forward to UCLA in 2025. Perhaps the rarity and uniqueness of these games make them so desirable. I don’t know that I would have gone to this game in, say, Dallas. I’m selfishly glad they took the risk to play this series.

I should close by commending everything about Notre Dame. From Chicago to South Bend, ND fans were cordial, welcoming, and gracious. Campus ambassadors and game day staff went looking for ways to help and point us in the right direction. There was some bantering of course, and maybe Notre Dame fans are more subdued than usual these days, but I hope they have at least half as good a time in Athens in 2019 as we did last weekend.


Post You had to bring up the 2013 Auburn game

Wednesday April 26, 2017

Almost four years later and it still hurts. Bill Connelly is looking back at the games of the year for his 50 best college football teams (“best” usually meaning “most interesting” – buy the book.) 2013 Auburn is one of those teams, and you can guess what this featured game was. I agree with him – the Kick Six was a remarkable and unforgettable moment, but this Georgia-Auburn contest was a better game. For whatever reason I’m not the type to try to forget games like this…it’s the opposite, really. There’s so much to unpack from this game, and because I’m a masochist we’ll do some unpacking.

I like to start with the comeback. Georgia trailed by 20 twice. They were down 27-7 in the first half, trailed by 17 at halftime, pulled to within 10, and then Auburn responded with 10 points of their own to take another 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Instead of folding Georgia responded with three straight scoring drives and forced their only three-and-outs of the game to salvage enough time to take an improbable 38-37 lead inside of two minutes left. That’s how it ended, right? Go Dawgs.

I still marvel at the gift that was Auburn’s playcalling. Protecting a 37-31 lead inside of six minutes remaining and reeling after two Georgia scores, Auburn went away from the running game that had baffled Georgia’s defense. Nick Marshall threw incomplete passes on first and second down, presenting Georgia’s defense with a rare opportunity to get after the quarterback. Ramik Wilson chased down Marshall from behind, Auburn shanked the punt, and Georgia was set up in Auburn territory with plenty of time for the go-ahead drive. Too much time as it turned out.

Todd Gurley made his biggest mark on this game catching passes. A big part of Auburn’s early success came from bottling up Gurley in the running game. He finished with 79 yards on 15 carries – not awful, but not enough to make much of a difference in the game. Auburn’s large lead meant that Georgia was going to have to throw anyway, and Murray ended up attempting 49 passes. The wrinkle was that Gurley caught 10 of those passes. Those receptions only accounted for 77 yards, so they weren’t big gainers, but they were effective in sustaining the drives that enabled Georgia’s comeback and kept Georgia’s defense off the field. Murray came to rely on Gurley as a reliable check-down to counter the Auburn pressure that often left the tailback open. Gurley’s role catching the ball wasn’t new – we had seen him devastate Florida with a long catch and run just a few weeks earlier. He had 37 receptions in 2013 (third-most on the team!), but more than 25% of them came in this game.

Auburn didn’t punt until well into the third quarter. They got into scoring range on every first half drive. It was bad enough to be down 27-10 at halftime, but the only thing that kept Georgia in the game was that four Auburn scoring chances ended with FG attempts rather than touchdowns. The Bulldog defense was hanging on by its fingernails, but the game could have easily been over by halftime had Auburn turned half of those opportunities into touchdowns. The Tigers converted three of those four FG attempts, but another was blocked in the second quarter and kept Auburn from delivering the knockout blow. Limiting Auburn to a FG attempt early in the fourth quarter was key to Georgia’s comeback – it extended Auburn’s lead to 37-17 but still kept Georgia within three scores.

I’m glad Bill mentioned this – Georgia nearly had a response for the ages. Facing 75 yards to go with 25 seconds left, two long completions and an offsides penalty gave Georgia one shot from 20 yards out. That was about the situation for Michael Johnson’s catch in 2002, but it was Auburn’s year for miracles. I was still impressed that Georgia could do anything resembling football after what had just happened.

Aaron Murray came so close to several career-defining moments. The final drive of the 2012 SECCG is at the top of the list. But like Mason-to-Mitchell against Tech in 2014 or Eason-to-Ridley against Tennessee in 2016, Murray’s tough run to get every inch of five yards for the go-ahead score at Auburn was eclipsed seconds later and ultimately became a cruel glimmer of hope in a heartbreaking loss. Murray’s Georgia career ended a week later with a non-contact knee injury on a run against Kentucky with the game well in hand. That go-ahead score at Auburn was Murray’s last great moment in a Georgia uniform, and hopefully it won’t be forgotten as we try to put the end of the game out of memory. (Bat it down!)

The loss saved Georgia fans from a lesser disappointment: Georgia went into Auburn with faint hopes of an SEC East title, but they’d need to win out and have Missouri lose at least one more. That Missouri loss never came, and we were spared the gut-punch of being denied an SEC East title by Vanderbilt.

UPDATE: For a happier ending, Bill also features the 1980 South Carolina game in which Herschel Walker has no time for geometry.


Post Third down progress

Wednesday October 28, 2015

Following a combined 7-of-31 conversion rate on third down against Alabama and Tennessee, Georgia made third down a focus in the week leading up to the Missouri game. The Dawgs were a much more respectable 9-of-19 in that game against a very good defense. Let’s have a look.

By quarter:

1Q 3-5
2Q 2-4
3Q 1-5
4Q 3-5

Georgia was at 50% or better in 3 of 4 quarters, but that third quarter should be no surprise to anyone who watched both teams sputter out of the locker room. Lambert was just 1-of-3 in the quarter with a sack, and the lone completion was a 2-yard pass to Michel when the Dawgs needed four yards. Things picked up after Missouri’s fumbled punt return; Georgia closed the game converting 4 of their final 7 opportunities including a couple of key fourth quarter conversions that moved them into position for the game-winning points.

Distance:

4 or less: 5-8
5-9: 4-9
10+: 0-2

As you might expect, Georgia converted at a higher rate closer to the first down marker. (That hasn’t always been the case this year.) If Georgia could get anything positive on first or second down, they moved the chains 9 out of 17 times.

Field Position:

Inside Missouri 20: 0-4
Inside Missouri 40: 3-4
Between the 40s: 4-7
Inside Georgia 40: 2-4

Now we’re getting somewhere. Georgia got most of their third down conversions between the 20s but got shut out in the red zone. That aside, the Dawgs moved the ball fairly well into good field position. That mattered as the second half wore on and it became obvious that points would be scarce. Georgia was only 2-for-4 on their own end of the field, but one of those failed conversions led to the fumbled punt.

Passing:

7-9 (5 converted), 64 yards, 7.11 YPA, long 16

That’s…not terrible? Georgia converted the first down on five of their nine passing attempts. (Add in two sacks though, and Georgia was 5-for-11 when Lambert intended to throw on third down.) Lambert continued to be unpredictable. His stats coming into the game indicated trouble between 4 and 9 yards to go, but that’s where he had most of his third down success against Missouri. He was just 2-for-17 at that distance coming into the game, but he was 6-for-8 with four conversions against the Tigers. Meanwhile the deep ball that worked well at Tennessee wasn’t a factor against Missouri. Reggie Davis injured himself on the opening kickoff, and that limited Georgia’s emerging deep threat.

Rushing:

Michel: 5 carries, 3 conversions, 16 yards
Douglas: 3 carries, 1 conversion, 4 yards
Lambert: 2 carries, 0 conversions, -12 yards, 2 sacks

Sony Michel was clearly Georgia’s most successful rushing option on third down, but even he was just over 3 yards per carry. If Douglas is now the power back (he also carried on Georgia’s failed fourth down attempt), there’s some work to be done. We never saw Marshall on third down, and Hicks was needed at fullback. Perhaps the return of Christian Payne makes Hicks more of an option now in those short-yardage situations.

All better, right?

Nearly 50% on third down is definitely an improvement, but facing 19 third downs tells you the kind of game Georgia played. Without many of the explosive plays produced by the offense earlier in the year, Georgia had to drive in small chunks, and that required stringing together more than 2 or 3 first downs. When those methodical drives stall inside the opponent’s 20 without any long runs or deep passes, you end up with four field goal attempts.

Should the offense be encouraged? Sure – they moved from under 25% in the previous two games to about 50% in this game against a respectable defense, and moving the chains beats the alternative. Under 4 yards per play on third down is nothing to celebrate though when the team’s average on all downs is over 6 yards per play. The conversion rate is a positive to build on, but there are still problems closer to the goal line against a more compact defense.


Post 20 Years

Tuesday August 4, 2015

Late last year author W. Joseph Campbell published a book titled 1995: The Year the Future Began. He argues that 1995 was an especially significant year of cultural change: the O.J. Simpson trial popularized the 24-hour news cycle. The Clinton-Lewinski affair began. The Oklahoma City bombing brought home the reality of domestic terrorism. The rise of the Netscape browser brought the World Wide Web from an academic pursuit into widespread personal and commercial use.

1995 was also the year during which I graduated from the University of Georgia, began my first full-time job, and threw together a few web pages which would become this site. Somehow all of that was left out of Campbell’s book, but here we are 20 years later. Some of the old stuff still exists thanks to the Internet Archive. Those pages were cobbled together by hand and uploaded over an agonizingly slow dial-up connection that got cut off when someone called. Now these posts can be tapped out on my phone, pushed over a high-speed wireless network to a complex content management system, and broadcast to thousands of people in 140 characters or less.

Bulldog sports saw their own changes in 1995. It was the last campaign for Ray Goff, and his departure closed the book on the Vince Dooley era. The coaching change and the first spring under new coach Jim Donnan provided us with some of our first content. The basketball program was in transition after 17 years of Hugh Durham, and Tubby Smith would soon give us a brief taste of success. These were the first teams and coaches that would have to deal with the Internet, and it was fun to find our way along with them.

I did the retrospective for our 15th year, and not much has changed. The need for longer-form blog posts is less with Twitter and Instagram out there, but it’s still nice to have a place to write when the muse strikes. That’s the way I imagine things will continue. Blogs have become big business with nationwide networks hosting teams of authors. But there’s always going to be a place for the lone, unedited voice of the individual, and that’s all I’ve ever wanted from this site.

I want to echo what I said in 2010 – I’ve gotten far more out of having done this site than anything I could hope to give back. I’m grateful for the other writers out there keeping the conversation going, the professionals who give us something to talk about, and most of all for the readers and people I’ve had the privilege of meeting or just chatting with over these 20 years. I can’t imagine what things will look like in another 20 years, but I can’t wait to find out.


Post Going from good to great: outside linebackers

Monday July 13, 2015

Like a lot of you, I spent some of the holiday weekend enjoying Georgia’s takeover of the SEC Network. I have a DVR backlog now that should clear up just in time for the season.

One of the featured games was the 2005 SEC Championship – Georgia’s first game against Les Miles and the second SEC title in four years. The Tigers were slight favorites and the higher-ranked team, but Georgia jumped on LSU with a couple of D.J. Shockley bombs to Sean Bailey. Georgia’s defense knocked Jamarcus Russell out of the game, and Tim Jennings sealed the win with a late pick six. It was a great win that salvaged a season disrupted by the midseason injury to Shockley.

While Shockley was the focus of that team both in terms of leadership and performance, Georgia’s running game took a bit of a back seat. It was a transitional period between dominant feature backs: Musa Smith left after 2002, and Knowshon Moreno made his debut in 2007. The 2005 running game was a tailback-by-committee with four players (Shockley included) getting at least 65 rushing attempts. Thomas Brown, Danny Ware, and Kregg Lumpkin made up the trio getting most of the carries with Brown leading the way in both attempts and yardage.

These were good backs. You had a three-star Rivals.com prospect (Ware), a four-star (Brown), and even a five-star (Lumpkin). All three eventually spent time on an NFL roster. All three had at least 1,500 career rushing yards at Georgia. Brown finished his career as one of Georgia’s top 10 backs in career attempts and yardage.

It was still a period of Georgia football where you were left wanting more from the running game. The committee approach wasn’t bad, but neither was it greater than the sum of its parts. It wasn’t obvious until 2007 when Moreno (with substantial help from Brown) reminded us what a running game operating at a high level looked like. The 2005 running game, including Shockley, put up 2,108 yards. That total increased by over 500 yards in 2007 without a mobile quarterback (never mind 3,352 rushing yards in 2014). The trio of Brown, Lumpkin, and Ware put up 1,563 yards in 2005. Nick Chubb alone had 1,594 last season.

As I watched that great 2005 game and that group of capable tailbacks, my mind wandered to the present and to, of all things, Georgia’s outside linebackers. Again we have a highly-recruited group with obvious talent and pro potential that seems to be on the cusp of something more. Certainly there have been moments of individual brilliance, but there have also been several games where the outside linebackers have been non-factors or even weaknesses.

It raised some eyebrows in the spring when Lindy’s quoted an anonymous SEC coach who said,

I think those two guys at outside linebacker (Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkins) are talented, but not superstars. I think they are a product of the recruiting machine and hype.

While our first instinct is to get defensive about a quote like that, I admit I see where it’s coming from. The last bit about recruiting hype is inflammatory, but the “talented but not superstars” line hits a little too close to home.

Jenkins appeared to be the heir apparent to Jarvis Jones after a standout 2012 Florida game. His tackles have increased each year, but his sack totals haven’t. Floyd contributed right away as a freshman, but his numbers stayed level in his second season. Carter made the most of his time as a true freshman playing behind more experienced players, and he’s testing the creativity of the coaches as they try to get all of these talented linebackers on the field.

There have been injuries along the way, and Floyd especially was derailed by a shoulder injury towards the end of last season. That injury had a silver lining: selfishly, we are glad to see Floyd back for another year. It also opened the door for Carter to see much more playing time during the bowl game, and he didn’t disappoint. The players have also been used in different roles. Jenkins has drifted towards more of a traditional 4-3 defensive end role, leading one NFL scout to want to see more out of him as an edge rusher. Floyd has been that edge rusher, but he’s also been versatile enough to drop back into the difficult star position at times. He’s listed as both an outside and inside linebacker on the preseason depth chart.  Carter hasn’t had time to settle into much of a defined role, and he’s been lined up all over the place to cause mayhem in the pass rush.

Seth Emerson put it well last week when he concluded that “Jenkins and Floyd have to hear the time ticking on their chance to become stars.” They’re gifted players with certain NFL futures – the shoulder injury is probably the only thing that kept Floyd from entering the 2015 draft. We’re not going to get into ESPN “elite” territory by trying to define exactly what would meet Emerson’s definition of a star player, but Jarvis Jones and his 155 tackles and 28 sacks over two seasons wasn’t that long ago. That followed Justin Houston’s 10 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss in 2010.

Even ignoring specific numbers, a high standard was in place for the outside linebacker position, and all three of Georgia’s current OLB standouts have shown the ability to play to that standard. With Carter gaining experience, Floyd healthy, and Jenkins stepping into the leadership role of a senior, each is in a place for production to skyrocket and, more importantly, for the unit as a whole to carry an improving defense.