If it’s Signing Day, it must be time for points and counterpoints about the value of recruiting services and rankings. I can understand the doubts (but, really, how many times do we have to hear Thomas Davis’s name in these discussions?), and I can understand why many journalists don’t care to touch the subject. Following recruiting can be borderline obsessive, harassing, and at times straight up creepy. It used to be the province of subscription newsletters and 900 numbers. Now it’s big business online and into the mainstream. Did you think ten years ago that the ESPN crawler would be flashing a commitment by some 3-star cornerback who picked SMU over Central Florida and Maryland? Me neither.

Doc Saturday does the work – with actual math – and finds out that top-rated prospects are much more likely (per capita) to become All-Americans. Not all of them do – not even half of them or even most of them. That’s the basis of much of the criticism of recruiting rankings, but, as Brian Cook reminds us, those critics often < ahref="http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sporting_blog/entry/view/53433/when_evaluating_recruiting_services,_dont_forget_to_divide" onclick="javascript:urchinTracker('/outbound/www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sporting_blog/entry/view/53433/when_evaluating_recruiting_services_dont_forget_to_divide');">forget to divide.

With 120 FBS schools signing 20 or more prospects each year, that’s at least 2,400 guys entering Division I. The Rivals 100 or whatever list of top prospects you use makes up less than 5% of the incoming class nationwide. It’s reasonable that you’re going to have several individual success stories from among that 95%. 50 of the 93 All-Americans Dr. Saturday examines – the majority – were rated 3 stars or lower. That’s impressive until you do the math and see that those three-star or lower prospects make up the long tail which contains over 85% of incoming players.

The recruiting rankings might not be able to identify which specific prospects will make it big, but if they could they’d be several steps ahead of even the best coaches.

By now this is pretty well-worn ground, but I’ll just add the points I try to keep in mind during recruiting season:

• Recruiting ratings aren’t perfect. Neither are the evaluations of coaches who are paid much more for their expertise.
• Ratings can’t take into account intangibles like academics, an enjoyment of firearms, or brooding over that girl back home.
• Since not every top prospect pans out, you’d rather have more than fewer and increase your odds.
• Ranking players gets sketchier the greater the geographic area covered. High school football is just too big to see everyone out there.
• Need matters as much as talent. You can fill your class with top-rated receivers, but not filling needs on the offensive line or in the secondary will lose you games.
• Highlight videos are just that. You notice how they never show anyone fumbling or missing a tackle?
• If you ever find yourself saying or agreeing with the statement “give me a bunch of 2-and-3 star guys who bleed [team colors] over some 5 star prima donnas,” don’t operate heavy machinery. Yes, of course we’d all like a fleet of 5-star guys who grew up reenacting in the backyard our team’s most famous highlight, but prospects choose schools for any number of reasons, and not all of them are warm and fuzzy. Give me the best talent every time.
• When in doubt, look at the offers. Again, the enormity of high school football makes it possible for many guys to fall through the Tim Jennings-sized cracks and become the exceptions to the rule. But on the whole you’d rather be competing against your peers for a prospect and not the teams you schedule for Homecoming. There might be a reason why your Top 10 program is going after a guy also considering Akron and UMass, but it should be a good one.

Congratulations to Mark Ingram. He’s as good a choice as anyone this year, and his reaction to winning the Heisman was a great and genuine moment.

Ingram is barely home from New York, and he already faces the question faced by any underclassman winner: can he do it again? It would be a tough order, and history won’t be on his side. The previous two Heisman winners won as underclassmen and neither was able to repeat. In the case of Bradford, injury cut short any repeat talk before it could get started. In the case of Tebow, the phenomenon of Tebow fatigue and declining stats since that 2007 season kept him from repeating. Tebow still managed to become a rare 3-time finalist, and Ingram can still match that feat.

I don’t expect there to be nearly as much “Ingram fatigue” as there was Tebow fatigue. As star football players go, Ingram’s still relatively anonymous. He’s not the outspoken leader that Tebow is/was. With such teammates as Cody, McLain, and Julio Jones, it’s possible that Ingram isn’t even the biggest name on his own team. That will change almost immediately. The Ingram media blitz is underway, and he’ll be the centerpiece of the championship game coverage as well as every preseason publication next year. I still think it won’t be as obnoxious or overbearing as what we saw out of Gainesville, but that was as much the media’s creation as anything, and Ingram will only have so much control over his own image going forward.

If someone other than Ingram is going to win the 2010 Heisman, he’s likely going to have to come from relative obscurity (much as Ingram did). 2009 was unusual with established stars like Tebow, McCoy, and Bradford all returning, but that won’t be the case next year. Of the top 10 from this year’s results, only three – Ingram, Boise’s Kellen Moore, and Houston’s Case Keenum – might be back next year. That number might dwindle further as Keenum explores his draft options.

You’re sure to hear some specific names come up next year. There are the stars from traditional powers: Pryor for sure will at least be in the preseason discussion and given every chance to win it. Even young players like Barkley and Forcier could come into play if their teams have strong seasons. Then there are exciting players from the next tier of programs: Dion Lewis at Pitt is bound to draw some attention. Kellen Moore could launch his candidacy with a BCS bowl win this year. Ryan Williams at Virginia Tech and LaMichael James at Oregon were phenomenal freshmen. The Pac-10 will have several high-profile quarterbacks (Luck, Masoli, Barkley, and even Locker). Finally there are the gaudy stat guys. Keenum would be the head of this class if he returns. Ryan Mathews at Fresno put up over 1,600 yards rushing despite missing a game. Ryan Mallett had a strong season for Arkansas and could put up big numbers in Petrino’s offense, but turnover on the staff and general questions about the quality of Arkansas could hurt his Heisman chances.

But, yeah. There don’t seem to be many sure-fire candidates – as it stands now – to challenge Ingram. That’s the story of Ingram’s improbable season though. If someone other than the Big 3 quarterbacks was going to win the Heisman this year, hardly anyone mentioned that it could be the sophomore tailback from Alabama. Coming into 2009 Reggie Bush was the only non-quarterback to win the award this decade. Ingram himself was barely on the Heisman radar at midseason. A lot of players had some very good seasons, but the lack of a real focal point (think Tebow in 2007 or Bush in 2005) opened up the race to a group of nontraditional candidates like Gerhart, Suh, and of course the first Heisman winner from Alabama. As stark as the Heisman landscape might look entering 2010, we know there will be several players who emerge.

Ingram’s biggest obstacle to repeating might be sharing a locker room with him. Even playing behind a Heisman winner true freshman Trent Richardson managed 642 yards and 5.1 YPC. I’m not suggesting that Richardson will beat out Ingram next year, but they will split time. It’s a fact of life as a tailback. Will Ingram get enough carries to put up Heisman-type numbers, and can he match his 6+ YPC number again? The presence of another capable back isn’t necessarily a death sentence for Heisman hopes though – Ingram won it this year despite Richardson’s impressive freshman season, and Reggie Bush managed just fine alongside another NFL-quality back.

What does Ingram have to do to repeat? At the bare minimum, he’ll need to:

• Stay healthy. Ingram played through some pain late in the season, but anything more serious could have cost him valuable exposure and stats in a tight race. It was only two years ago that Dennis Dixon had his legitimate Heisman chances stopped cold by injury.
• Put up far better numbers. Ingram’s 2009 stats were enough for him to win a close vote this year, but they were the fewest rushing yards by any Heisman-winning back since 1975. He can’t hope to repeat if his stats drop or even stay constant – the bar has been set. The challenge will be getting his numbers while playing alongside Richardson and a maturing passing game that features McElroy, Jones, and Maze.
• Feature on a winning team. Bama still figures to be strong, but just dropping a game or two along the way could derail a Heisman candidate. Alabama will play Penn State and Florida in addition to the usual SEC slate in 2010.

It’s official – the Dawgs are going to meet the 6-6 Texas A&M Aggies in the AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl on Monday Dec. 28 at 5:00 ET.  The game will be televised on ESPN2.  Georgia is 1-3 all-time against the Aggies.  Georgia dropped the first three meetings – including a postseason loss in the 1950 Presidential Cup Bowl.  But the Dawgs took the most recent game – a 42-0 win in Athens in 1980.

If you wanted to find the least ideal opponent for a team that was short three defensive coaches, it would be a team that was near the top of a major conference and rated among the top 5 nationally in total offense.  That’s just what Georgia is getting in Texas A&M.  Through all games, the Aggies led the Big 12 in total offense and were third in scoring offense.  Isolating only conference games A&M was second in total offense and still third in scoring offense.  They got there primarily behind a rushing offense that was second-best in the league with 180 YPG, and they also averaged 245.4 YPG passing against Big 12 competition.

The Aggie running game is led by a duo of backs Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray.  The two have similar stats, but Michael leads the team in touchdowns and has been getting the bulk of the carries lately.  The running game is augmented by a mobile quarterback.  Jerrod Johnson is an efficient passer who torched Texas for 342 yards passing and 97 yards on the ground.  For the season Johnson has an impressive 455 net yards and 8 touchdowns rushing along with 28 TD through the air against just 6 INT. (By contrast, the Georgia record for passing touchdowns in a season is 25.) 

The Georgia defense and its hodgepodge of coaches will have a tough job first containing the triple running threat while paying attention to a diversified passing game that has seen nine Aggies (including both featured tailbacks) record at least 15 receptions during the season.  They convert third downs at nearly a 50% clip, thanks no doubt to Johnson’s ability to create.

There’s a silver lining of course and a reason why such a potent offense led to a 6-6 record.  The Aggies were the Big 12’s worst defense in terms of scoring defense and total defense.  They gave up over 460 YPG to conference opponents.  They were dead last in passing defense, and their rushing defense is also among the bottom quarter of the Big 12.  Against bowl-eligible Big 12 teams, the Aggies gave up an average of 42 PPG. 

As you might expect, that volatile combination of potent offense and toxic defense has led to A&M being on both sides of some lopsided scores.  They got blown out by Arkansas and Kansas State but rebounded to put up at least 35 points in wins over bowl-bound Texas Tech and Iowa State.  They followed those wins up by losing to a bad Colorado team and getting destroyed 65-10 by an Oklahoma squad that limped to a 7-5 record. 

Many saw A&M’s most recent outing – a 49-39 loss to Texas on Thanksgiving night.  The Aggies, led by Johnson’s incredible performance, kept pace with the #2 team in the nation but had their back broken by a 95-yard kickoff return.  The Aggies put up a prodigious 532 yards but allowed 597 (plus 186 return yards).

There are common opponents. Two weeks after losing to Georgia in Fayetteville, Arkansas put a 47-19 beating on Texas A&M at a neutral-site game in Dallas. Arkansas trailed after the first quarter but put up 23 points in the second quarter to break the game open.  The Hogs were able to move the ball on the ground as well as through the air, and their dominance of the game let Mallet have a relatively reserved 17-27-271 day with 4 TD passes.

The Aggies fared slightly better against Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys won by a close 36-31 margin in College Station. Georgia lost 24-10 in the season opener at Oklahoma State.

Georgia’s defense will have its work cut out, but the offense will be under pressure to put points on the board and keep the ball away from a potent Aggie attack.  The Dawgs led their conference in scoring (in conference games), but they’ve also done themselves in with turnovers. They’ll need the strong running game we saw at Georgia Tech to control the clock and keep the Aggie firepower on the bench.  There should also be opportunities in the passing game, and the return of A.J. Green could provide a big spark for Georgia.

As we wait for the BCS and bowl picture to shake out this afternoon…

• The final week of the regular season proved to be one of the most entertaining of the year.  From Fresno-Illinois to the big championship games, there was no shortage of drama, amazing individual performances, or great finishes.  It was also the week of the botched extra point.
• What has Texas done over the past two games to make their case as the presumptive opponent for Alabama?  Take another look at that non-conference schedule. Scheduling a championship season is something we talked about as soon as last season ended, and it looks as if the Longhorns are going to get there. 
• Most of the best individual efforts in yesterday’s game came from the losing side.  Suh, Spiller, Keenum, and Dion Lewis were all standouts in their games but were let down by those on the other side of the ball.
• Good news: Charlie Strong might be headed to Louisville.  Bad news:  Florida might join a crowded market for defensive coordinators.  Georgia’s under a lot of pressure already to make an impact hire, and, in the hyper-competitive SEC, you know that Georgia fans are going to measure their choice of coordinator against Florida’s.
• Speaking of which, I think we can safely remove Kevin Steele from Georgia’s list.  A lot of teams look bad against Tech’s offense, but that wasn’t the best audition last night. Given two shots against Tech this year Clemson’s defense actually looked worse last night than back in September.
• Will Tech be among those making defensive changes in the offseason?  Paul Johnson can’t like grinding out touchdown drives only to give up a quick score going the other way.  They’ve come out on the right side of most of their shootouts this year, but that’s mostly due to his offense’s ability to control the clock at the end of the game.
• I’m hoping for a Tech-Cincinnati matchup in the Orange Bowl.  We’d get to see whether that scoreboard has a third digit.
• Welcome Zander Ogletree to Georgia football.  UGASports.com broke the news ($) yesterday that the twin brother of safety Alec Ogletree would join the recruiting class of 2010. 
• Georgia’s defense is going to be short on coaches heading into the bowl game.  I can’t blame the departing coaches; their top priority now is finding their next gig.  Mark Richt and Rodney Garner will direct the defense with help from graduate assistants.  Hopefully the offensive scheme of the bowl opponent will be pretty straightforward – I wouldn’t be too excited about playing a team like Missouri.
• Congratulations to Alabama.  Incredible effort and plan on both sides of the ball.  Florida’s running game has been a storyline for several years now, and it was glaring yesterday. 

1. You have someone in mind who’s the obvious choice to head up Georgia’s defense.
2. There’s someone else who thinks that would be a worse hire than Mike Locksley at New Mexico.

I’m not even going to bother with a list because there’s a good chance few will be familiar with the coordinator (and definitely the assistants) Georgia ends up hiring. Mark Richt hasn’t had to make a lot of staff changes, but I don’t recall seeing names like VanGorder or Jancek or Searels before they were brought on. The world of college football is a much bigger one than the same three or four names you’re seeing everywhere.

So after yesterday’s fun it looks as if Shreveport and the Independence Bowl are the most likely postseason destination for Georgia. There’s enough griping about that, but it’s really not worth getting worked up over. I’ll still eat at Chick-fil-A (mmmmmmmm…Peppermint Chocolate Chip milkshake…..). Of course nothing’s official now until the conference allows bids to go out after the championship game, and it’s amusing to read all of the disclaimers and denials taking place since the announcements started breaking after Auburn and the Outback broke the logjam. “We haven’t extended an invitation to anyone yet. In fact, we’re still researching at this moment exactly which teams are in the SEC and ACC. Of course we’re still VERY interested in – what team are you calling about again?” said Chick-fil-A Bowl spokesman Gary Stokan.

So, at the risk of going against protocol, we’ll still assume it’s Shreveport for the Dawgs. And that’s life. As Texas Dawg noted in the comments yesterday, it could mean an interesting opponent from the Big 12. With teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, and Texas A&M in play a decent matchup does seem to be a possibility. I’m about over playing the Big 10 at this point. And at the very least, Georgia will be an answer to a trivia question as the bowl will sever its tie with the SEC after this season.

Still, Shreveport remains a bit of a punchline among SEC fans, and people seem in agreement on what this destination offers as a lesson for Georgia: take care of business next time against Kentucky. Actually, that’s not the lesson. Auburn lost 5 of its last six games against FBS competition including a home game with Kentucky but still finds itself headed for a New Year’s Day bowl. That’s the thing about a glut of 7-5 teams: we can beat ourselves up for losing to Kentucky, but any of our peers can be singled out for their blunders and missed opportunities too. The lesson is something Mark Richt has said many times in the past. When you don’t take care of the things you can control, you leave your fate to the whims of others. It’s not about what one team or another deserves or has earned. The same whims can set you up on New Year’s Day in Florida or banish you to Shreveport, and either fate can be justified.

There’s another lesson, though. Would Georgia, at 8-4, be a more attractive to a bowl than a herd of 7-5 teams? Well, yes, that’s the point of the “just beat Kentucky next time” lesson. But Georgia is also the only one of the SEC’s six 7-5 teams to face three BCS conference opponents in their nonconference schedule, two of which were ranked. Where did that get us?

Tennessee and Georgia both finished the season with identical overall and conference records (7-5 and 4-4). The other four SEC teams with 7-5 records all were 3-5 in the league and got to seven wins with perfect nonconference records. Of those teams, only South Carolina played more than one nonconference opponent from a BCS conference. Would Tennessee or Georgia be more attractive bowl teams had they swapped UCLA or Oklahoma State for a generic mid-major to get to 8-4? It didn’t hurt Ole Miss, did it?

There’s another way to look at it of course. These trips to Tempe, Boulder, and – I suppose – Stillwater can be their own bowl trips within a season. Anyone who made the trip to Tempe can tell you that the scene felt just like a bowl (and a major bowl at that). The upside in a situation like 2008 is that you get a nice midseason bowl-like trip and get the win that builds your resume for a better postseason bowl bid. We saw the downside this year when a nonconference road loss to a quality opponent probably contributed (along with the whole losing 4 conference games thing) to missing out on a more attractive bowl game.

Damon Evans’ consistent message in his approach to scheduling is to “build the brand”. That brand took enough damage this year thanks to the results on the field, but the aggressive scheduling won’t be doing the brand any favors this bowl season.

It’s been over a month since the last game at Sanford Stadium. We left Sanford on the afternoon of October 3rd deflated after a heartbreaking loss to #4 LSU. Though Georgia did plenty to lose that game – impotent first half offense, allowing two 4th quarter touchdowns, and shoddy kick coverage – the officials served as a convenient lightning rod to draw criticism and blame away from the team.

Saying that the month away from home has been disappointing is an understatement. Georgia has suffered two decisive losses to divisional foes, and a team that headed for Knoxville confident of its ability to play with top 10 teams is now resetting its goals and aiming for bowl eligibility. We’re long past blaming the refs or anything else extraneous; it’s to the point that we’re starting to go overboard in eating our own. Such is the climate to which the Bulldogs return from their month on the road.

It’s pretty easy to guess what kind of reception the Bulldogs will receive at Homecoming: indifference. Questions about empty seats came up at the weekly press conference. The unspoken answer is that there will be many. Those who don’t unload tickets on the babysitter and still decide to come will make up the typically bland Homecoming crowd. The team might or might not play their best game of the year or might turn it over 3 more times, but a 1:00 kickoff, a 1-AA opponent, and a Homecoming game on pay-per-view isn’t going to make much of an impression. Forgive me if I look past this game.

I’m starting to buy in to the idea that the Auburn game in a week is the biggest remaining game on the schedule. That’s not to concede or discount the Tech game (that’s always the game that I circle personally), but I’m thinking more about the need to hold it together in front of a home crowd whose opinions have shifted quite a bit in such a short time.

It was 10 years ago that Georgia suffered a home loss to Auburn that led to one of the ugliest scenes I can remember at Sanford Stadium. The damage done by that loss shook the faith of the fans in a coach who was less than two years removed from a top 10 finish and a win over Florida. That coach wouldn’t last but another season at Georgia. You might argue that Richt is on much stronger ground now than Donnan was at midseason in 1999, and you’d be right. But does that ground seem as firm as it did as recently as a month ago?

Georgia fans drew praise in 2008 for sticking by the team at halftime and beyond during the loss to Alabama. For those of us who remember the 1999 Auburn game it was a remarkable contrast. At the same time there was an implicit caution not to go to the well of good will too soon and too often. Blutarsky talks a bit about that this morning. Richt standing on his record is certainly valid, but doing so "indicates that he’s already spent some of that good will…banked…as a result of his track record." When it comes to the support of the home fans, much of that good will was spent against Alabama and Georgia Tech last season, and not much has been put back into the till since.

The optimist in me doesn’t want to consider the fallout from another blowout loss at home. It was, in hindsight, fortunate that the Tennessee game was on the road. I’m not anticipating a loss, blowout or otherwise, to Auburn, but we do have to concede concerns going up against an offense that has looked great at times this year against a defense that hasn’t. A loss to Auburn isn’t a pleasant thing to consider – not only would it be a loss to Auburn, but I really do worry about the reaction of the crowd on a national broadcast. Fans are coming into the game with arms crossed, eyebrows raised, and in a foul temperament. It won’t take much to set them off. I hope we never find out.

Beating Auburn won’t salvage the season or prevent the uncomfortable post-season evaluations that must occur. A win sets up the possibilities of a 5-1 home record, a good-but-not-great 5-3 SEC record, and a 3-game winning streak going into Atlanta. That might seem like small potatoes (especially with the big game left to finish the season), but it would be an indication of a team that hasn’t given up on the season and is determined to finish it out.

Any conversation I’ve had about the game took an average of 8 seconds to get to that disclaimer.  Look – no one’s claiming that the win healed all wounds and that the Dawgs have turned it around.  But Vanderbilt was the opponent, and – for a nice change – Georgia took care of business against a lesser opponent without much drama.  It was only Vandy two years ago when the Dawgs escaped by a field goal.  In 2006 the Dawgs followed up an ugly loss to Tennessee by imploding against Vanderbilt at home.  With so much negativity around the program this week Georgia responded by handing Vandy their biggest loss of the year and recording the biggest Georgia win in Nashville since 1993.

Even disclaiming the quality of competition, there was plenty to like:

• Georgia got out in front, held a lead, and put away Vanderbilt.  Sounds simple, but the Dawgs had found a way to make things interesting in each of their other three wins.
• Georgia gave Vanderbilt very few opportunities to get back in the game with field position, turnovers, or special teams mistakes.
• The Dawgs immediately answered both Vandy scores cutting off any chance the Commodores had of getting on a roll.
• Though the running game struggled for much of the game it showed up when it was time to put the game away.  Time-of-possession was in Vandy’s favor most of the game, but it ended up being nearly a five minute advantage for Georgia by the end of the game.  The nearly seven minute 4th quarter drive that ended with Munzenmaier’s touchdown was a thing of beauty.
• Georgia was an acceptable 7-for-15 on third downs while limiting Vandy to just 3-of-15.
• With the exception of the fake punt that proved harmless, Georgia’s special teams were strong in all areas. Even kick coverage was decent with no return longer than 20 yards, and the kick out of bounds at the end of the first half was good strategy if it was intentional and not a bad outcome if it was accidental.

It wasn’t a perfect result  – the running game still struggles, Vandy was more effective on offense than the score indicates, and even Cox and the receivers had a tough time getting on the same page at times – but the simple conclusion that Georgia did what you’re supposed to do against a weaker team is more than many of us expected heading into the game.

There’s a certain clarity that comes from games like Saturday’s loss. There’s no ridiculous penalty, no turnover, no play (unless you count 17 versions of the same bootleg play), and no specific coaching decision on which you can pin a loss like that. In earlier setbacks you could take some solace in the performance of the defense as the offense struggled, excuse points away to field position, or zero in on horrible calls against Rashad Jones or A.J. Green. You could look ahead to the next game thinking how things might finally click if we just stopped those pesky turnovers. That fog has lifted after a weekend that ended with Mark Richt admitting that “where we are right now is a culmination of everyone.”

HR Department

It’s not my place to be flippant with the careers and livelihoods of Georgia’s coaches. We’re customers and not shareholders or managers, and our choice is ultimately whether or not to buy the product (a fact which will be very evident come kickoff of the Tennessee Tech game). That doesn’t imply satisfaction or complacency. It’s Mark Richt’s job to manage his staff and team, not mine, and his program’s success will ride on those decisions. He’s certainly given us plenty of reason to trust his judgment when it comes to building a successful program, but the current competitive landscape and the state of the Georgia program are uncharted waters for this coach. At the very least he’s earned the opportunity to try to navigate these waters.

I will say one thing though to those who still maintain some sort of firewall between their feelings for certain assistants and their reverence for the head coach. If the start to this season has made any difference in the way fans view the program, it’s that their dissatisfaction can no longer be put on a specific area or assistant. There is a program problem now, and it’s Richt’s problem to address.

Calling for changes on defense is nothing new; some have been at it since the first half of the West Virginia game that concluded the 2005 season. Grumbling about special teams (and kickoffs in particular) is also a well-worn path. But aside from the occasional gripe with John Eason whenever a receiver dropped a pass or pointing out the offense’s role in some of the spectacular team meltdowns over the past couple of seasons, most of the vocal critics have been able to target the bulk of their criticism at one or maybe two assistants and reassure themselves that the one simple change is all that’s keeping Richt’s Georgia program from reaching its fullest potential.

Is that possible any longer? Is there an area of the program about which to feel confident apart from A.J. Green’s natural gifts or the legs of Butler and Walsh? I don’t mean that in an emotional fling-poo-blame-everyone sense. There just isn’t a part of the team performing at a high level right now. Even the offensive line – the supposed strength of the team – hasn’t been able to survive the loss of a single player. I’ve even seen calls for Richt to take playcalling duties back from Mike Bobo – a decision that was universally hailed as a success at the end of the 2006 season.

I don’t envy Richt’s position over the next couple of months. Fans would replace coaches weekly if they could with all the cold consideration of managing a fantasy football roster. Richt has to deal with some very difficult decisions regarding men he respects professionally and likes personally. Part of the current level of grumbling among the fans has to do with Richt’s unwillingness to make changes following last season in which some of the same issues manifested themselves. Instead an intact staff (except for voluntary turnover) plus an emphasis on the vague concept of “leadership”, a relatively healthy roster, and even a well-disciplined off-season haven’t added up to much. It could be argued that the program is currently living with the consequences of prior indecision.

You can see the weight of the situation pressing on Richt. It shows up in sharp postgame exchanges with reporters. It shows up in the bunker mentality that has Richt talking about the “honor in being in the arena.” It’s even more frustrating and concerning for the staff and players, but at the same time there are many fans and members of the media still willing to stay in Richt’s corner. Now’s not the time to push them away no matter how high the level of frustration.

This painful situation is of course the tradeoff of a program built on loyalty and family. That’s almost always a feature and not a bug. It’s proven to be a winning culture – a culture that was cited when sought-after assistants turned down opportunities elsewhere to continue on in this working environment. Is part of the appeal knowing that the pressure to produce is sometimes less in such a culture? That’s a question for Richt that will have to be considered even any staff changes that take place; any postseason assessment will have to look at the incentives and rewards within the program that guide and reinforce the culture, and it goes way beyond money. Those kinds of touchy-feely management issues can be some of the most difficult for technically proficient head coaches who excel at the principles of football.

What’s Next

Regardless of how you feel about the staff, we’re just not likely to see many changes before the end of the season. This is the team and staff that’s going to trot out there for the next six or seven games. We have the luxury of thinking about decisions that are months away, but the team still has at least six games left and can’t afford to become preoccupied over the last one.

Earlier in the season it was possible to talk about the team Georgia could be if they eliminated certain mistakes and played more efficient and smart football. Now halfway into the season we have to admit that those traits are more or less the identity of the team. Turnovers, questionable decision-making (fielding a punt on the 1? spiking the ball as the clock runs out?), and porous pass coverage remain and don’t seem to be going away.

It’s disappointing and frustrating for fans, and I know many people have already written off this season and will wait for significant changes before getting back on board. That’s understandable – it can be a big investment of time and money. For those willing to stick it out with this team and season, I hope you listen to Michael Moore. That seems much more honest – and also much more likely to be embraced by the fans – than the stone wall coming from the coaching staff. Following Saturday’s comments, Richt was much more open on Sunday about putting everyone on notice. “I’m pointing the finger at all of us as a whole. We must all improve, period,” he said.

Any time a program faces a crisis like this, you have to pay attention to recruiting. Georgia has the bulk of another impressive class already committed, but it’s reasonable to expect that even the most rock-solid commitment will be observing how Georgia finishes the season with special attention given to any changes on the staff. Lane Kiffin is going to wave this win in the face of as many recruits as he can find this week, and I don’t blame him; it’s the only thing on which he can hang his hat going into the bye week recruiting trips. The building frenzy of Georgia fans calling for a scorched-earth approach to the coaching staff won’t go unnoticed either.

2007?

We love our analogies. Towards the end of last week I began to hear a lot of Georgia-following-FSU comparisons to tie Richt’s problems to Bowden’s, and FSU’s shootout loss to Tech on Saturday certainly didn’t help things. Now we’ve started to see and hear a few people mentioning Georgia’s stunning turnaround in 2007 which followed a disappointing start and an ugly loss at Tennessee.

Is such a turnaround possible? Sure. Georgia stands a chance against all of its remaining components (and that includes Florida). The biggest difference between 2007 and 2009 is the lack of upward vectors on this Georgia team. In 2007, you had a sophomore Matthew Stafford coming into his own. Knowshon Moreno put up 157 yards at Vanderbilt in a game that transformed him from impressive newcomer to the supercharged star we all saw finish the season. Defensive end Marcus Howard also began to come on strong towards the middle and end of the season and gave Georgia the pass rush they needed to become a much more effective defensive team. There appear to be few players on those kinds of trajectories this year. Joe Cox hasn’t been a disaster at quarterback, but his floor and ceiling appear to be set. The tailback situation is as muddled as it was before the season. Justin Houston’s return did give the pass rush a nice shot in the arm, but the overall defense still struggles.

“Georgia is just as close to 1-5…”

One last thing: please – enough of this. It’s bad enough that Georgia is 3-3; let’s not start taking away wins or players. Yes, Georgia would be worse off without A.J. Green (duh). But he’s on the team. Georgia did come close to losing the South Carolina and Arizona State games, but playing the what-if game with those close outcomes does a disservice to the plays made by guys like Green and Rennie Curran to secure those victories. If this isn’t going to be a championship season, such standout plays might be the best things we’ll have to take from the season.

1. Is the absence of Dowtin and Dent going to be more important than we think? When you consider what Tennessee does best on offense – run the ball, screen passes, and short-yardage passes – not having two of your better linebackers available seems to be a pretty big deal.

2. “What’s wrong with Georgia’s special teams?” is a topic that can and has been discussed all week, but there’s one area I’ll focus on here: punt returns. Georgia’s 2001 and 2005 wins in Knoxville each featured a Georgia punt return for a touchdown. In 2001, that Damien Gary return enabled Georgia to get back off the carpet from an early deficit and prevented the game from following the script of so many trips to Neyland. Thomas Flowers’ return in 2005 came in a tight 13-7 game and gave a strong Georgia defense the cushion it would need to close out the game. Are the days of Flowers and Mikey Henderson that far gone? Did the fake punt by South Carolina rattle Georgia that much?

3. Is it likely that another big return will help Georgia this year? Not if current trends continue. The Dawgs are so frozen in nearly every element of special teams that even once-explosive units like punt return are stuck with trotting out a backup quarterback to field fair catches because “Georgia is using essentially its regular defensive unit to prevent a fake.” I understand situations where you’d want to play the fake, but it was disheartening to see Prince Miller call for the fair catch after LSU punted from its own goal line to start the second half.

4. Which development is going to make a bigger difference in the game – Washaun Ealey or Tennessee’s higher-tempo offense? Ealey was credited with being a second-half “spark” for the Georgia offense. (What does it say about the state of the Georgia running game that ~30 yards and a 4 YPC average is enough of an improvement to stand out?) Meanwhile Tennessee got things going with a little more pace towards the end of the game, and the words “no” and “huddle” are getting thrown around a bit this week in Knoxville. Then again, Tennessee’s success with an up-tempo offense came with the game pretty well in hand.

5. How many college players are being mentored or otherwise involved with Deion Sanders? Sanders has been a mentor and spokesman for former Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree. Sanders also nearly became the legal guardian of Noel Devine. Now he’s at the center of the Dez Bryant eligibility issue. I don’t question Deion’s motives or claim he’s doing anything but looking out for some guys with very troubled backgrounds, but all we need now turning up in related stories is M.C. Hammer. What’s that you say?

6. Is the kickoff scheme so complicated that even Georgia’s best players can’t get it right? Richt talked about the experience and youth factor on kickoff coverage, but was that the problem on Georgia’s last flawed kickoff? For starters, junior linebacker Rennie Curran appeared to go the wrong way and was the cause of the formation penalty. That left the Dawgs shorthanded on the right side of the field with just three players – Prince Miller, Baccari Rambo, and Nick Williams. Rambo and Williams aren’t the most seasoned Bulldogs, but they’re not exactly freshman walk-ons either. I don’t know where Blair Walsh was supposed to put the kick, but it was relatively deep (it would have been fielded on the 2 or 3 were it a normal kickoff), and the ball went to the center of the field from the right hash. It didn’t take long for the returner to head left towards the sideline where Georgia was shorthanded essentially putting most of Georgia’s coverage unit behind the play.

Assuming that Walsh didn’t put the ball exactly within the 3-inch landing zone prescribed by the strategy, two of the bigger mistakes on the play were made by 1) Georgia’s starting placekicker and 2) the SEC’s leading tackler. Is that really a question of experience?

7. Does the relative success (and I use that term very loosely) of Ealey play into the discussion of what’s wrong with the offensive line and specifically run blocking? I don’t mean to imply that the blocking has been there all along, but were the struggles of King and Samuel really mostly to do with the line?

8. Is this the week Crompton puts it together? Every pessimistic prediction this week has had a variation of this: “Our defense and Willie are going to make Crompton look like Joe Montana this week.” The problem with Crompton though hasn’t been one of coverage. He’s had his open receivers, and the broadcast of their Auburn game took pains to point out the open underneath crossing routes. Crompton just isn’t hitting them, or they’re being dropped. It’s possible that this is the week that he finally starts hitting open receivers in stride, but that would have a lot more to do with Crompton than the coverage. If Georgia’s pass rush continues to show signs of life, it’s reasonable to expect that passing game to continue to struggle.

9. Has Georgia had a touchdown drive this year without a play or return of 20+ yards involved? David Hale digs up the fact that “well over half of Georgia’s drives are five plays or less,” and those include a few scores. If you wonder why the offense bogs down for stretches, consider how feast-or-famine things have been. Of course sustaining drives goes back to the running game…

10. Does the news of Dez Bryant’s ineligibility affect Georgia? Heismanpundit thinks so – at least indirectly. Whether or not Bryant is able to regain eligibility, HP speculates that the incident “probably narrows the Biletnikoff Award field [for the nation's top receiver] to Golden Tate, Eric Decker and A.J. Green.”

How about this performance by an offense:

212 total yards.
208 yards passing.
4 yards rushing (net of 35 gained, 31 lost).
2 fumbles, 1 lost.
2-11 on 3rd downs.
4 sacks surrendered.
5 drives of 3 plays or less.
Avg. starting position: own 29.
No drives started in opponent territory.

Sounds like they went up against pretty good defense, doesn’t it? That’s what Georgia was able to do to Arizona State in last year’s game at Tempe.

The defense isn’t magically going to turn it around, but something approximating last year’s effort shouldn’t be too much to ask especially since we’re back on home turf. Of course last year’s defense started out much stronger with a big outing at South Carolina and Arizona State before the wheels came off against Bama. Can this defense come up with anything close to what they were able to do in the last meeting?

It’s also worth noticing that Arizona State had to start every drive last year on their side of the field. Georgia had zero turnovers and didn’t allow any kickoffs back across the 50. The Dawgs, meanwhile, blocked a punt and recovered a fumble in opponent territory to put the game away in the 2nd quarter. More of that would be nice, too.

There’s enough blood in the water after a disappointing loss, and it’s easy to panic over the perception of a program in disarray that makes for good column and sports talk fodder. The coaches (and even the players to some degree) seem fine with chalking a lot of problems up to execution, but getting the coaches on the same page, even in analysis after the fact, has been a story that won’t go away.

It wasn’t just the first start in three years for Joe Cox or the debut of Branden Smith; it was also the first game in which Tony Ball served as Georgia’s receivers coach. Not much went well for the offense, but Ball in particular seemed to have a rough go of it. Georgia struggled to get production through the passing game, and leaving two promising receivers on the bench for the entire game didn’t help matters.

“Coach (Tony) Ball’s in the box and he didn’t have direct contact with us,” (Michael) Moore said of Georgia’s receivers coach. “He kind of didn’t realize that until the end of the game. … We didn’t know what the rotation was going to be and we ended up sticking with basically three guys.”

“He said the game was moving so fast and he was trying to find out what plays worked and what didn’t work, and he said he just forgot, it slipped his mind,” (Marlon) Brown said.

It should be pointed out that this isn’t Ball’s first rodeo as a receivers coach. He’s had the job at before at a major program (Virginia Tech). Position coaches at Georgia have a lot of freedom to set their rotations. It’s possible that Virginia Tech handled things differently when Ball was there. Still, it was an embarrassing oversight, and I don’t blame the players for bewilderment over the news that a position coach with only six scholarship players available forgot about two of them.

This isn’t just Ball’s failure though. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo is sitting right next to Ball in the booth. With playcalling resting with Bobo and position coaches deciding on their own rotations, an experienced coach of offense like Mark Richt should be able to have a better big picture view of the offense and speak up when those in the booth get bogged down in the details.

I’m not the first to raise the communication issue, but it goes beyond getting a couple of freshmen on the field. Take another example from the game. Oklahoma State DB Perrish Cox, who was assigned to A.J. Green most of the day, was out of action for a series or two. Many fans noticed it, and the broadcast team did too. Georgia didn’t do much, if anything, to test that side of the field. It makes sense now – if Georgia’s coaches in the box didn’t have a good grip on their own personnel, how could they ever note the absence of a key defender and come up with a plan to test a possible weakness?

From player rotation to playcalling and even down to the approach to kickoffs, Richt delegates and yields to his assistants. That’s not necessarily a bad thing of course; you hope to hire a staff of professionals with the experience and skills to do their jobs, and the head coach cannot hope to micromanage every aspect of the program and game plan. I don’t mean to suggest that Richt is well down the Bobby Bowden path to oblivion. This is still his team though, and it does seem that some of the pieces are disjointed. We joke about Evil Richt and his various personalities…right now, the team could use a good kick from Assertive Richt.

• “Flying under the radar.”
• “Embracing the underdog role.”
• “The star of the team is the team.”
• Richt’s road record (always with an asterix for Jacksonville).
• Off-season discipline and distractions (which team looked as if it had just dealt with a week’s worth of distractions?).

When I hear people pat the defense on the back for a good job, it sounds like most are just relieved that it didn’t turn into a 2008-style meltdown. The defense did play well, and the stats back it up. At the same time, there’s this: Georgia was the only SEC team that didn’t force a turnover last week. If we’re going to bang on the offense for not making plays, we really can’t overlook that the defense did very little to change the momentum once it swung to the Cowboys.

When offseason talk invariably turns to strong and weak schedules, we’re almost always talking about the nonconference part of it. The conference schedule gets treated like a monolithic block that’s more or less the same for each team in the conference. The presumed strength of the conference serves as a proxy for the strength of the rest of a team’s schedule.

But with the exception of the Pac-10 and their round-robin nine-game conference schedules, the road through a single conference can look very different depending on the division and the luck of the rotation.

Take Arkansas for instance. After a gimme against Missouri State, the Razorbacks will run this gauntlet:

Sept. 19: Georgia
Sept. 26: at Alabama
Oct. 3: at Texas A&M
Oct. 10: Auburn
Oct. 17: at Florida
Oct. 24: at Ole Miss

The “easiest” game of the bunch looks to be a nonconference road game in College Station. Regardless, they’ll start the SEC slate by hosting a top 15 Georgia team and then must travel to play three preseason top 10 teams. They’ll start the season 1-0, but delivering on the hype surrounding Ryan Mallet and finishing 7-5 or better might require them to come out of that stretch at no worse than 3-4. A season-ending road trip to LSU is still out there, and the Tigers will remember last year’s meltdown.

LSU is the only other SEC West team that will face both Florida and Georgia this year. If the Tigers manage to regain the top position in the West, they’ll have more than earned it.

Ole Miss is a preseason top 10, and their SEC schedule lends itself to a promising year. Though they’ll have to face strong Alabama and LSU teams from the SEC West, they’ll host both of those games. The Rebels’ schedule doesn’t include Georgia or Florida from the East; they’ll play South Carolina, Vandy, and Tennessee instead.

Kentucky, though not a contender, might still find some success thanks to the schedule. They’ll face Alabama and Florida within the first four games of the season but will face only one more preseason top 25 team the entire rest of the season (Georgia). Though Alabama will have a tough opener against Virginia Tech, their only ranked SEC opponents will be fellow SEC West contenders Ole Miss and LSU. The Tide’s tougher SEC East games (Tennessee and South Carolina) will be in Tuscaloosa.

No one is calling Georgia’s overall schedule easy (especially the September part of it), but the Dawgs also get a bit of a break by avoiding SEC West favorites Alabama and Ole Miss. They’ll still have to play LSU, but they’ll get the Tigers in Athens. The Dawgs also get a bye week before playing Florida; last year they went into the WLOCP right off a trip to Baton Rouge. It’s still no picnic, but the SEC schedule looks slightly less difficult for Georgia than it did a year ago.

Lopsided conference scheduling isn’t just an SEC thing. Nebraska is the presumed favorite in the Big 12 North, and they’ll only face one of the top three teams from the Big 12 South (Oklahoma). Their top competition in the North, Kansas (Oklahoma and Texas) and Colorado (Texas and Oklahoma State), each have to play two of the three Big 12 South favorites.

Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, FSU, and Clemson are the preseason top four in the ACC, and only one of those four teams (Georgia Tech) will play the other three. Virginia Tech won’t face Clemson or FSU, but they’ll make up for it with a nonconference schedule that includes Alabama, Nebraska, and East Carolina.