There are two firsts of note as the SEC Women’s Basketball Tournament gets underway on Wednesday: it’s the first time the event will be held in Jacksonville, and it’s the first time a team other than Tennessee has navigated SEC play without a loss. South Carolina repeats as the regular season champion, and they improved on a 15-1 record in 2015 the only way you can: a perfect 16-0 mark. That record might hint that everyone else is playing for second, but several teams came close to knocking off the Gamecocks, and anything can happen in the tournament. The #2 and #3 seeds lost to South Carolina by 1, 6, and 7 points during the regular season.

It could be a fun first few rounds. Each of the four bottom seeds has knocked off at least one of Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, and Missouri. Tennessee will be looking to make some noise from the #7 seed. Even Auburn or Missouri coming from the 8-9 game won’t be an automatic win for the top seed. While South Carolina’s dominance has been the story, all other teams have at least five conference losses. Almost every team has been vulnerable in some way, and each team has a quality win under its belt.

There’s been quite a bit of mobility in the standings from one year to the next. Florida, Auburn, and Georgia all took a step up this season. Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU took a tumble. That’s made for some unexpected scores during the season, and it could lead to some new faces in the semifinals. Nine teams are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, so fans should expect competitive and quality games with a few surprises.

Georgia’s Path Through the Tournament:

Wednesday: Bye
Thursday / Second Round: #6 Georgia vs. #11 Vanderbilt or #14 Ole Miss: ~8:30 pm ET. SEC Network
Friday / Quarterfinals: vs. #3 Mississippi State: ~8:30 pm ET. SEC Network
Saturday / Semifinals: ~7:30 pm ET. ESPNU
Sunday / Finals: 2:30 p.m. ET. ESPN
Complete Bracket Here

The Field:

1) South Carolina (16-0, 28-1): Three straight regular season titles have established Dawn Staley’s program as the newest SEC dynasty. They followed a regular season title in 2014 with the tournament title in 2015 and carved out a little more history for themselves this year with the perfect conference record. It hasn’t been a cakewalk – 7 of their 16 conference games were decided by fewer than 10 points. It’s to their credit that they’ve learned how to grind out those close wins, and only a handful were really in question at the end. That experience should serve them well during the tighter competition in the postseason.

The Gamecocks feature arguably the nation’s best frontcourt, and it’s no surprise they lead the league in rebounding and blocked shots. That interior defense and the ability to hold opponents to one shot is a big part of what they do. Wilson and Coates would be enough for any team, but the depth provided by Imovbioh and others puts South Carolina over the top. Tiffany Mitchell is a versatile scorer from the wing and is the leader of the team. I could go on – Sessions, Roy – there are contributors up and down the roster which is what you’d expect from a national contender.

2) Texas A&M (11-5, 21-8): Team Courtney is once again back near the top of the standings. Seniors Courtney Williams and Courtney Walker are the only Aggies scoring in double-figures, and they’ve been enough to lead A&M to a second place finish. The Aggie formula hasn’t changed in a few seasons: they don’t shoot much from outside but rely on defense, transition, and a ton of mid-range jumpers (which happens to be the Walker’s specialty.) Two of A&M’s four conference losses have come to South Carolina, and no SEC team has come closer to knocking off the champs. A pair of close road losses to Arkansas and Florida were their other setbacks, but on a neutral court A&M could be considered a slight favorite in Jacksonville to earn a third shot at the Gamecocks.

3) Mississippi State (11-5, 24-6): Vic Schaefer’s rebuilding project has reached maturity. Despite the departure of a talented senior class, MSU has posted consecutive 11-5 seasons and third place finishes, and their best player is only a sophomore. Victoria Vivians has taken over leadership of the team and at 6’1″ can score from anywhere in the offense. Chinwe Okorie has established herself inside, but the Bulldogs also have a dangerous outside game with six players hitting at least 10 three-pointers. Morgan William, another sophomore, has become an effective point guard with a knack for getting to the foul line. They’ve lost six games all season, and all six have been to likely NCAA Tournament teams with only one bad blowout loss to Kentucky.

4) Florida (10-6, 22-7): The Gators have been a surprise this year bouncing back from a losing record a year ago. This is a young and athletic team that likes to run, but their pressure defense can be feast or famine. They lead the conference in steals thanks to that pressure, and their transition offense puts them at the top of the league in scoring with 79 points per game. If teams can handle that pressure, they can find some easy scoring opportunities, and that’s been an issue in Florida’s losses. Ronni Williams is an impressive wing made to play in this up-tempo system. Freshman guard Eleanna Christinaki made an immediate impact, and the team benefits from the experience of senior guards Carlie Needles and Cassie Peoples.

5) Kentucky (10-6, 21-6): It’s been an odd season in Lexington. Kentucky spent most of the season in the top 15 nationally, but it took a late push to finish this high in the SEC standings. An early February loss to South Carolina left the Wildcats at 4-6 in the league after an undefeated nonconference run. They’ve won six straight to enter the tournament as one of the hotter teams in the SEC, but even that momentum wasn’t enough to carry them to a top four seed after the slow start. Junior Makayla Epps helped the Wildcats overcome the loss of a deep senior class, and JUCO Evelyn Akhator has been an impact newcomer inside. But what makes Kentucky dangerous is the ability of almost any player, including Maci Morris, Alexis Jennings, and Janee Thompson, to stand out. That, combined with Kentucky’s trademark frenzied defense, makes them a team that can advance in the postseason. Their path to the SEC finals though likely goes through two teams, Florida and South Carolina, that handed Kentucky 3 of their 6 conference losses.

6) Georgia (9-7, 21-8): It’s largely been the same cast of characters for a couple of seasons, so what Georgia tries to do shouldn’t surprise anyone. It’s still a team that leans heavily on defense and doesn’t shoot especially well in the halfcourt offense. First-year coach Joni Taylor has made sure that the Lady Dogs are self-aware when it comes to their strengths and weaknesses, and the need to create offense from that defense has been an emphasis all season. The result has been a defense that’s top 20 nationally and a record that surpassed the preseason consensus.

For the second straight season, the Lady Dogs will enter the postseason without their leader Shacobia Barbee. Her injury just a week before the end of the regular season leaves Georgia without one of the nation’s best rebounders and defenders, and that’s a big concern when Georgia relies on rebounding and defense to generate offense. Georgia is actually without two starters – forward Mackenzie Engram, a 2015 SEC All-Freshman team member, hasn’t played since early January. Engram’s absence has tested Georgia’s frontcourt depth, but one of the positive developments has been the emergence of freshman post Caliya Robinson. Robinson has won SEC Freshman of the Week honors multiple times and is beginning to show confidence in her range and defense.

Georgia, even without Barbee, starts a trio of seniors who have been in their roles for multiple seasons. Hempe, Griffin, and Butler all need a good tournament for Georgia to advance. Griffin has been shooting well but was bottled up by Tennessee. Hempe and Washington must watch their fouls as they work inside. Butler must handle defensive pressure and look to attack. The injuries have left Georgia thin on the bench, but minutes from Robinson and reserve guards Clark and Armbrister will have to be productive.

7) Tennessee (8-8, 16-12): The Lady Vols get credit for playing the nation’s toughest schedule, but eventually you have to win some of them. Though they took a big hit during conference play, Tennessee likely won enough during the early part of the season to secure an NCAA bid. Losses to bottom four teams Alabama and LSU had the Lady Vols in some peril before they found some answers against Georgia (of course.) There’s plenty of talent – former #1 prospect Mercedes Russell, phenom Diamond DeShields, experienced seniors Bashaara Graves and Nia Moore, and steady role players like Andraya Carter. For whatever reason, that talent has had trouble meshing this season, and scoring can be tough to come by. Still, Tennessee’s eight conference losses have been by an average of 4.5 points. This is a team inconsistent enough to lose their opening game to Arkansas, as they did in Fayetteville in January, or compete with 2-seed Texas A&M in the quarterfinals, a team they played to within five points on the Aggies’ home court. As usual, we should expect a partisan Tennessee crowd to give their team a little edge.

8) Missouri (8-8, 21-8): The Tigers made a splash this year thanks to the arrival of SEC Freshman of the Year Sophie Cunningham. They quickly earned a spot in the national rankings and stayed there for much of the season. Cunningham’s biggest impact has been to transform Missouri from a team that relied almost exclusively on the outside shot. They’re still second only to Ole Miss in three-pointers attempted, but opponents have had to respect other elements of the Missouri offense like junior forward Jordan Frericks. Missouri has become more well-rounded and, as a result, more consistent and dangerous.

9) Auburn (8-8, 18-11): Auburn was 3-13 a year ago but was one of the surprise teams of 2016. They posted impressive wins over Kentucky and Florida en route to an 8-5 SEC start. Junior Katie Frerking has emerged as a dangerous scorer to go along with Brandy Montgomery. Their press and matchup zone has them among the best in the nation at generating steals, and the transition points can come in waves. Those two upsets were enough to separate Auburn from the lower half of the conference and keep them in contention for a top-four finish until the final week of the season. The Tigers have hit a bit of a wall though and have dropped their last three games. Their game against Missouri could be very important for Auburn’s postseason fate.

10) Arkansas (7-9, 12-17): The Hogs were also a surprise team after a poor nonconference showing. They pulled off an unexpected surge in January with four wins in five games that included some impressive scalps: Texas A&M, Missouri, and Tennessee. That momentum cooled down a bit in February, and Arkansas, like most teams, proved to be a little less potent on the road. Junior wing Jessica Jackson continues to be an impressive and dominant player able to score inside or step outside. Senior forward Melissa Wolff is another frontcourt player who can stretch defenses outside, and quick guards like Devin Cosper and Jordan Danberry can create off the dribble. This is a young team with only one senior that should be improved next season.

11) Vanderbilt (5-11, 16-13): As the program awaits the arrival of a heralded recruiting class, they’ve suffered through a second-straight difficult season. There have been some noteworthy successes including road upsets of ranked Kentucky and Missouri teams, and they’ve been frustratingly close in several losses to quality opponents. Consistency has been an issue, and only one player, Christa Reed, averages in double-figures. Guards are the team’s top three scorers, and Reed and Rebekah Dahlman are two of the SEC’s top seven in three-point percentage. Post Marqu’es Webb can cause problems if teams pay too much attention to the perimeter game. Vandy lost eight straight down the stretch until ending the season with a nice road win at Missouri. Was that enough to reverse their momentum heading into Jacksonville?

12) Alabama (4-12, 15-14): Alabama doubled their SEC win total – a good sign. They were 4-4 at home, including wins over Georgia and Tennessee, and a controversial call at the end of the Texas A&M game cost them another home win. The bad news of course is that Alabama has been winless on the road, and they’ll have to leave home to play in the tournament. Hannah Cook leads the team in scoring and steals, and she’s second only to center Nikki Hegstetter in rebounds. Alabama can be effective with their tough interior defense but struggles when opponents are knocking down outside shots.

13) LSU (3-13, 9-20): The Tigers plummeted from a fourth-place finish in 2015 to match the program’s record for most losses in a season. The team can point to injuries, starting with All-SEC guard Raigyne Moncrief. Another All-SEC guard, Danielle Ballard, was dismissed from the team. The depleted roster is led by forwards Alexis Hyder and Akilah Bethel, and much of the offense flows through guard Rina Hill who has played an astounding 1,000 minutes this season (nearly 35 min/game). Wins over Tennessee and Georgia show they can be a threat in the early rounds.

14) Ole Miss (2-14, 10-19): The Rebels fell quite a bit from their 17-12 WNIT campaign a year ago. They haven’t been able to replace some good talent from that team, especially forward Tia Faleru. The highlight of their season was an upset of then-#9 Kentucky in January, so even the last-place team has some punch. The Rebels depend on the outside shot – no team, not even Missouri, has attempted more three-pointers. The bad news is that they’re only tenth in three-point percentage. If the outside shots are falling, they have the ability to steal a win.

It turns out Kirby Smart isn’t a miracle worker, but he and his new staff are damn fine recruiters. Given about six weeks with which to recruit, they turned in a top ten class that rates as the best in the SEC East. It was one of the most outstanding results for a first-year coach, and that Smart in this short time pulled off a class every bit as strong as the typical Richt class gives us a reason to expect even more from a full recruiting cycle in 2017.

• Credit is due to the previous staff – most of the prospects signed in this class were either commitments or had strong interest in Georgia due to the efforts of those coaches. Smart and the new coaches did an excellent job maintaining and strengthening those relationships.
• That said, there was some tweaking of the class by the new staff. They were able to pull off a few flips. They also won a few head-to-head battles for some uncommitted prospects. At the same time, Georgia lost a handful of commitments who might’ve been encouraged – directly or indirectly – to look elsewhere.

With Signing Day upon us, it will soon be time to start talking about how all of these new pieces will fit into the program. The larger trend – and our own 2015 experience – is for more and more true freshmen to see playing time. The combination of incoming talent and opportunities on the depth chart lead you to think that the trend will continue at Georgia in 2016.

Quarterback is one position where opportunity and talent have fans looking to a newcomer. Now that Jacob Eason has enrolled, the next question seems to be when, not if, he becomes the starter. There’s been some idle offseason talk on the radio and message boards about the best way to proceed – do you throw him to the wolves right away, or do we see a gradual transition (with the obligatory mention of 2006)?

At the same time, we’re all watching the recovery and rehab of Nick Chubb. While we have no indication that the process is anything but on-schedule, Georgia’s coaches might face a similar decision: even if cleared to play, do you ease Chubb back in with someone like Michel getting the bulk of the carries, or is Chubb the workhorse out of the gate?

Whatever your own thoughts on those topics, I think most of us would admit that there is a nonzero chance that Georgia begins 2016 without Eason and Chubb in the starting lineup.

How does that possibility affect your outlook for 2016? If you saw a backfield of Lambert and Michel trot out against UNC, would your expectations change? What if September – with UNC and two SEC road games – came and went before Eason and Chubb were starters?

The Chubb situation seems to be straightforward: if he’s physically able, he’ll be in there. That doesn’t just mean that the knee is sound – he’ll also be playing catch-up with conditioning. It could be, say, the Ole Miss game before he’s able to carry the load of 20+ carries. Knee injuries are unpredictable, and the range of possibilities is everything from a full recovery to the dreaded scenario where he never regains that highest level of performance.

Eason’s path to the starting job could be a little less linear. Fans expect it’s sooner than later. The process will play itself out in spring and summer. Coaches will use the term “best chance to win.” All quarterbacks – Eason, Lambert, and, yes, Ramsey too – will have a chance to impress the new staff.

Why might the coaches hold Eason back? Start with Greyson Lambert throwing just two interceptions in 2015.

If Brian Schottenheimer deserves credit for one thing, it’s this: Lambert went from a 10/11 TD/INT ratio at Virginia to a 12/2 ratio at Georgia. That improvement wasn’t accidental. Now it’s true that this improvement came at the cost of severely limiting the passing offense – Lambert wasn’t asked to make Aaron Murray’s throws, and the passing game wasn’t nearly as productive. He also threw a few suspect passes that would’ve/should’ve/could’ve been picked off, but they weren’t.

Given a good defense, the coaches chose and eventually settled on the quarterback who didn’t make the back-breaking mistake. It wasn’t enough to get Georgia a championship, but it did get them to 10 wins. That approach carried the team through the turmoil of the second half of the season and led to five straight wins to close out 2015.

So if you’re Kirby Smart coming over from the ultimate game-management program, you’re conditioned to appreciate a quarterback who won’t put your defense in a tight spot. (You also appreciate championships and quarterbacks who can make plays.) That’s part of the decision: if you think you can navigate Georgia’s tough early schedule by minimizing mistakes (at the expense of production) in the passing game and get by following the 2015 model, Eason might not be the best choice. If, though, you anticipate that the offense is going to have to win a couple of these games, you might risk the inexperienced gunslinger.

Chubb’s availability could also factor into the quarterback decision. With Chubb, the running game could be the focus of a fairly productive offense. Without Chubb, Michel and Douglas are the only returning backs with experience. There will also be some changes on the line. Michel proved himself to be a capable 1,000-yard back, but the offense wasn’t nearly as dynamic as it was when Michel’s versatility was on display in the first month of the season. Without Chubb and a deep pool of backs, you might need to ask for more from the passing game right away and accept the risks that come with it.

We often see teams change over the course of a season. Sometimes (2013) it’s for the worse as injuries or off-field incidents cut short a promising season. Other times (2007) teams find themselves and make a run late in the season. Unless the Dawgs get fairly lucky and both of these playmakers are ready to go on September 3rd, the identity of the 2016 team could change in a big way. How late (or early) in the season that transition occurs and how well the team and coaches manage it will have a lot to say about how we remember Kirby Smart’s first season as head coach.

Kirby Smart made a splash on Thursday with a helicopter tour of several top prospects, and the night ended with a high-speed police escort and the use of a live bulldog during a Periscoped in-home recruiting visit.

In other words, just another recruiting season.

The gimmicks get the headlines, but beneath the surface there is real work being done. Smart and his assistants are blanketing their top prospects and doing it in a very public way. Any new coach is in a tough spot – you have little more than a month to either establish or repair relationships with prospects that other programs and coaches might’ve cultivated for years. Georgia might or might not pull some big names on Signing Day, but it won’t be for lack of effort.

One thing to keep in mind though is that the tireless recruiting going on now just brings Georgia up to par. Within the past week we’ve seen Notre Dame park a semi truck in front of a prospects house. We’ve seen Nick Saban dancing. We’ve seen Michigan enlist Ric Flair – Florida fan – for some Signing Day wooooing. Again, the stunts aren’t really the point. It’s that other top programs and staffs have also been pulling out the stops, working around the clock, and sending some high profile coaches into the same living rooms. There’s not much new under the sun – Lane Kiffin was doing the helicopter thing six years ago.

On Sunday at a reception, retired Georgia basketball coach Andy Landers talked about the recruiting landscape. He pointed around Georgia’s state-of-the-art practice facility. Everyone has one of these now, he explained. Every school subscribes to the same recruiting scouting services to identify talent. Doing these things just gets you in the game, and it’s up to you to stand out among a crowded and competitive field.

It might be enough that Georgia is now in the ballpark with the rest of these programs in terms of effort and resources. It might be real progress just that Georgia is willing to spend on what might seem like extravagances in the name of recruiting. Georgia doesn’t get a particular edge relative to the elite programs, but it does allow Smart to make these recruiting battles competitive. The helicopters, the planes, the bulldogs, and all of the gimmicks open the door for Smart and its staff to get to what really matters: contact with their top prospects and the ability to discuss Georgia and the opportunities it offers.

2017 LB prospect Jaden Hunter committed to Georgia on Monday. That’s big in a football sense – he’s a 4* linebacker who chose Georgia over a long list of schools that included Alabama, Clemson, and FSU. It’s a significant commitment at a deeper level also. Hunter’s parents – Brandi Decker Hunter and the late Brice Hunter were both Bulldog standouts for their respective sports. Brice’s tragic death over ten years ago left Brandi as a single mother of three and Jaden without a father. A group of Brice’s teammates made it a point to be the male role models in Jaden’s life, and it was this strong bond with the Georgia program that led Hunter to commit as a tribute to his father.

The folks at Rivals put together a pair of incredible videos for this occasion. First is the commitment itself. That’s impressive enough, but the second video is nearly as good. Anyone who followed the program in the 1990s will be blown away by the collection of former players who stepped up in Jaden’s life and who explain in this video what Brice Hunter and Jaden mean to them. Give both videos a watch – you won’t find many commitments this well done, and kudos to the Rivals staff for working with the family to produce these videos.

I've always been a Dawg at Heart ! I'm doing it for you pops , #RIPDAD pic.twitter.com/JnRVF1KHzH

— jaden hunter . (@head9hunter) January 25, 2016

Georgia’s men’s and women’s basketball teams have each played three conference games, and the teams have a combined one win between them.

For the men it’s been a story of home and away. The Dawgs looked out of their element in the conference opener at Florida, and Ole Miss used the frenzied crowd of a new arena to pull off a mild upset. Georgia’s lone home game was a relatively easy dispatching of Missouri. Though there were some defensive lapses, Georgia’s shooting has let them down on the road. The Dawgs shot 35.6% at Florida, improved to 54.7% at home against Missouri, and dropped back to 36.2% at Mississippi. If there’s been one consistent good sign, it’s the play of Yante Maten inside. Freshman Derek Ogbeide has started to contribute also and should see his minutes increase.

Georgia’s next chance at a road win isn’t until next week at Missouri, and it’s definitely one Georgia should be expected to handle. The men enjoy two straight at home, and Saturday’s game against #21 Texas A&M will be an important opportunity for a quality win. It’s critical that Georgia holds serve at home against Tennessee and A&M. After this week’s homestand, the Dawgs will play three of four on the road including difficult trips to LSU and Baylor.

It’s been even tougher going for the women. The Lady Dogs began the season 12-1 in nonconference play and were on the cusp of the top 25. The SEC schedule hasn’t been kind: Georgia’s first three conference opponents were ranked, and the Lady Dogs weren’t able to notch any upsets. They came closest in Thursday’s loss to Missouri: Georgia fought back from a 10-point halftime deficit to take a 5-point lead in the fourth quarter, but the visitors closed the game on a run of their own.

The woes for Joni Taylor’s team are familiar ones. Georgia hasn’t had much from transition against SEC opponents and has had to get points from the halfcourt offense. That isn’t and wasn’t expected to be a strength of the team. When the defense leads to offense, as in the third quarter comeback against Missouri, the team shows signs of life. But that productive quarter was combined with first and fourth quarters in which Georgia bogged down in the halfcourt and scored 6 and 8 points.

Taylor’s players continue to fight, and they clawed back to make the Kentucky loss a competitive one. Their next attempt to get an SEC win will be a road trip to face a Florida team that has beaten FSU and Tennessee to earn a spot in the top 25. It would definitely be a quality win, but at this point any victory is important.

Tracy Rocker didn’t go into specifics, but he did confirm that there was something to all of those rumors flying around late in the season:

When you play a game like this and you have — I’ll call it — a bit of a mutiny; well, it IS mutiny — it’s important that you bring the kids together, and I thought it was important we did that.

It was obvious that there was dysfunction on the coaching staff. You don’t put out a tweet like this when everything is honky dory. Rocker’s comments help us understand why the status of a successful defensive coordinator was even in question. It’s also reasonable to conclude that this dysfunction was used against Mark Richt as justification for the coaching change.

Many of us would just rather forget the 2015 season and move on. There won’t be many highlight DVDs sold for this season. I’d like to remember it for what the players accomplished despite whatever was going on among the staff. Yes Rocker, McClendon, and the remaining interim coaches deserve credit for “bringing the kids together,” but it was those players who kept it together and closed the season with five straight wins while their coaching staff was imploding around them. The 10 wins and 40 wins for the seniors meant something to them even as fans and coaches chose to close the book on a season that went south fast. We thought that the motivation for the bowl would have to come from within, but it turns out that much of the second half of the season was played under those conditions. The guys paid six figures were able to plan their escape routes and soft landings as they squabbled, but the players with no choice but to stick it out did just that. They should be proud of that, and we should be proud of them for it.

While the rest of the program is rebuilt around them, the remaining Georgia players have one more game to play. It’s a meeting of two tradition-rich programs, and those of us old enough still have some old Sugar Bowl scores to settle.

Motivation
It’s become the mission of any bowl preview: figure out which team wants to be there and which has already cashed in. There’s no formula to follow and easy to get wrong – how many people expected Georgia to come out fired up last year after a loss to Tech and Richt rumored to be on the way out? Both Georgia and Penn State have gone through some changes since the end of the season, and I’m not going to guess which will have more to play for. But if Georgia is going to find motivation to play well in this game, it’s most likely going to have to come from within. Their new coaches aren’t in place yet. Their old coaches have largely scattered. Fans have been slow to buy tickets, and many have already moved on to the Smart era.

So it’s pretty much down to the guys suiting up. There are some concrete goals – a 10-win season and 40 wins for the seniors. Those will get the team so far, but the motivation that matters will have been what got the team through bowl practices. Are they prepared, on the same page, and willing to play for each other? If so, they’ll be fine.

Franklin Factor
James Franklin will be on the other sideline. He was annoying while at Vanderbilt if only because he made the games (in Nashville, at least) more competitive. His teams fought back several times against Georgia, and that’s a credit to Franklin for getting that response at a program used to losing. I have no doubt that we’ll see an opponent that continues to compete even if Georgia proves to be the better team. The Dawgs can’t sit on a lead.

One thing we also saw a lot of from Franklin’s Vanderbilt teams was trick plays, particularly on special teams. We’ve seen onside kicks, fake field goals, and the center-eligible fake punt. Offense could be at a premium in this game, and points or just sustained possession from a trick play could prove decisive.

Trenches
Line play is a key in most games, and it will be especially important in a game that features excellent pass rushing by both teams. Georgia seems to have the slight edge – the Bulldog offensive line has been inconsistent but is capable of a good game. There are two different challenges. First, can the Georgia offensive line play to form against Carl Nassib and his teammates? Penn State has racked up 44 sacks, but Georgia has allowed only 13. Which unit will flinch? The other challenge is for Georgia’s defense. Penn State’s offensive line has been a weakness all season, but can Georgia’s defensive front take advantage? This is a big opportunity for Jenkins and Floyd to leave a very positive impression before they head to the next level.

With such good pass rushes, the offenses will do their best to avoid obvious passing situations. Georgia’s running game is working with some good news and bad news: Michel and Marshall will be as healthy as they’ve been in a while. But Douglas and Hicks are out for the game. The Dawgs will have to dig deep at both tailback and fullback. We might even see the debut of A.J. Turman. Hopefully Georgia’s bowl coaches will continue the use of McKenzie, Godwin, and other skill players in the running game.

Penn State has found a tailback in true freshman Saquon Barkley. Barkley has posted over 1,000 yards and gone for over 100 in five games behind that suspect offensive line. Three of those five 100-yard performances came against ranked opponents: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Northwestern. Like Georgia, they’ve struggled to establish much depth behind their lead rusher.

If you thought Georgia was bad on third down (and they’ve been), Penn State has been worse. Only two FBS schools have a worse success rate on third down. Both teams will place an emphasis on winning early downs and then turning their dominant pass rushes loose against an opposing offense that ranks among the bottom ten on third down.

Bottom Line

The formula that’s allowed Georgia to finish the regular season 5-1 won’t change much for this game despite whatever wrinkles have been installed during bowl practice. Run, manage, defend. The Dawgs will have to sustain drives on the ground against a fantastic front seven. Both teams are fairly even in turnover margin – a swing either way would help a struggling offense as would any big special teams plays. The Florida game is a good reminder of how fast things can go south for Georgia’s formula with a few miscues. Of course any team wants to play with the lead, but it’s especially important for these two teams that they not have to play from behind and abandon the run.

Georgia’s first priority is to make sure strengths remain strengths. That begins with the outside linebackers and up front where they should have a relative advantage over Penn State’s offensive line. If Georgia’s pass rush takes the day off, the Penn State quarterback is more than good enough to make plays. But if the Dawgs show up on defense and take advantage of a struggling Penn State offense, the Dawgs should have the upper hand.