It didn’t take long after Brian VanGorder took the defensive coordinator job at Auburn for people to notice that his former secondary coach Willie Martinez was available. Sure enough, it looks as if Batman and Robin might be joining forces again.
Before we get all hah-hah-WillieMart, let’s distinguish between what Martinez did as a position coach and what he did (or didn’t do) as a coordinator. Since Martinez arrived in Athens in 2001, we’ve been in what should be considered the golden age of Georgia defensive backs. The Dawgs have had periods of outstanding defensive backs before, especially in the early 80s, and there has been the occasional Ben Smith or Champ Bailey. But I don’t think we’ve seen this kind of sustained run of quality from the position, and its legacy of producing professional-grade talent continues today with guys like Boykin.
If you care to, think about the state of the defensive backfield in the 1990s. You know – the one against which Ben Leard and Ronney Daniels played catch for three hours. In the entire span from 1991-2001, there were only four Bulldog defensive backs drafted: Carlos Yancy in 1995, Champ Bailey in 1999, Jeff Harris in 2000, and Jamie Henderson in 2001. Things were improving at the tail end, but the new coaching staff introduced in 2001 poured gasoline on the ember. In the comparable 11-year Mark Richt era, there have been eleven members of the UGA secondary drafted – twelve if you include Paul Oliver’s selection in the supplemental draft.
Better talent? Sure. That group also included some longshots. Jermaine Phillips and Bruce Thornton started out on the other side of the ball before becoming NFL-quality defensive backs. Thomas Davis was a find, and Tim Jennings remains the ultimate diamond in a rough. Tra Battle was thrown onto the field as a walk-on and developed into not only the hero of the 2006 Auburn game but also a good enough player to have a cup of coffee with a few NFL teams. There was some coaching and development going on.
That’s nice history, but the question going forward is whether Brian VanGorder and Martinez can catch lightning in a bottle and do it all over again. Will they be able to turn Auburn’s defense around to the extent that the Georgia defense improved from 1999 through 2002? The coaches might be the same, but several factors are different.
Returning talent. The Georgia defense really wasn’t the problem in 2000. The collection of talent on that side of the ball was the primary reason for Jim Donnan’s damning “55 years” enthusiasm. A good bit of that talent went pro after the 2000 season, but there was plenty left to work with. Auburn returns 9 defensive starters in 2012. That’s a good starting point, but it’s a group that didn’t improve very much during the season or perform well against good teams.
Mojo. In 2001, both BVG and Martinez were plucked from relative obscurity by Mark Richt. They were unproven on the big stage and hungry. Within four years they had established themselves as coaches on the rise, and it was a matter of time before each went on to bigger and better things. Both come to Auburn on different trajectories. VanGorder returns to the college ranks after an unsuccessful brief stint as a college head coach and a lukewarm few years as an NFL coordinator. Martinez is back as a position coach after struggling as a coordinator, and his Oklahoma secondary wasn’t a strength last season. That history and the need to prove themselves once again might be motivation, but there can also be an awful lot of pressure on two guys who now have very public track records.
It’s not the same SEC. SEC offenses are more diverse and productive than they were during VanGorder’s time at Georgia. There’s an interesting discussion about the future of SEC offense that will impact this environment of offense. Martinez wasn’t particularly successful at adapting. If there is a “Sabanization” trend away from the spread, does that put things back in VanGorder’s comfort zone?
The supporting cast. VanGorder and Martinez won’t be the only defensive coaches. Jon Fabris’s bizarre kickoff rituals aside, Fabris and Garner put together some very talented defensive lines whose reserves were good enough to leave early for the NFL. A weak link on the rest of the defensive staff could be damaging.
None of those are reasons why the duo can’t succeed again. They’re both accomplished coaches. We can and should expect certain familiar fundamental traits to carry over to go along with wrinkles they’ve picked up over the past decade. VanGorder will likely remain strong at in-game adjustments. We can count on pressure. The level of success VanGorder and Martinez enjoy will depend on the details: can they work with the returning players, can they recruit at a high level, and can they thrive in a different SEC?
Greg McGarity’s ridiculous defense of the 8-game conference schedule was unfortunate. We know that money is driving expansion and realignment, and those changes will have implications in the schedule. McGarity could have just put it out there: we like home games. Home games mean additional revenue and often mean wins. A ninth conference game comes at the expense of a home game, will spread additional losses around the league, and will require some tough scheduling choices that could impact revenue.
It needn’t be more complicated than what Auburn’s Jay Jacobs says. The current schedule is working, and there will have to be a significant financial incentive to deal with the risks and costs. Those incentives will determine whether the conference slate can be expanded to accomodate expansion or whether the new teams will be shoehorned into the current 8-game format.
But more conference games are better, right?
As fans, we’d much rather see another conference game instead of a cupcake game. Of course we’d also schedule like a video game and make our custom conference that goes from playing LSU to Ohio State to Oregon and back for the WLOCP. I’d like a ninth game if only because I believe that membership in a conference should have some meaning beyond revenue-sharing (silly me!), and that means playing the other members as often as possible. But the additional game comes with some big considerations.
You lose a home game every other year. That means five conference road games in some years. Georgia is currently committed to a neutral site game every year and a road nonconference game every other year. Georgia would have to do some creative scheduling gymnastics to get more than six home games in a year. Once you’re used to seven home games, taking one away can be painful.
Seven SEC teams will have an additional loss. Actual math! We can assume that most of those losses will be shared among the lower half of the league, but that extra loss could mean the difference in bowl eligibility for a team or two. At a higher level, it could cause the league to lose that second BCS bid now and then. The amount of money at stake is not a hard, quantifiable number and would vary from year to year, but it does introduce an element of risk in the SEC’s finances.
The pressure for a ninth game is more likely to come from the conference than any individual school. Schools like the extra cash from more home games, and they like the scheduling flexibility to chase a bowl bid or remain in the national picture. The conference has to pursue more money from the broadcasting rights in order to make the finances of expansion work. In exchange for those additional dollars, the networks will demand a larger inventory of games, and there’s your push for a ninth game. The conference will have to sell the schools that the additional money they’d receive from the networks would more than cover the expenses of fewer home games and the risk of diminished revenue from lost bowl or BCS bids.
What are Georgia’s options with an 8-game SEC schedule
Play the six division opponents, play a permanent West opponent, and rotate the remainder of the rest. This schedule maintains the current permanent opponent, but it will take over a decade to rotate through the rest of the West.
Drop the permanent opponent and rotate two West opponents each year. This schedule maintains the current rotation, but it eliminates the permanent opponent (Auburn).
Personally, I’m fine with the first option. Playing Auburn is an important part of Georgia’s identity as a program. I can live with fewer trips to Starkville and most of the other destinations in the West. We’ll pour one out for Baton Rouge, but no one said this process would be without sacrifice. If the conference can accept some flexibility, I like Clay Travis’s idea giving teams the right to opt out of the permanent opponent. Not a bad idea if you can get past the certain cries of unbalanced schedules.
What are Georgia’s options with a 9-game SEC schedule
Here the focus changes to the out-of-conference schedule. The 9-game schedule allows for the current permanent opponent plus two-team interdivisional rotation to continue. The loss of a home game every other year has to be accounted for (not to mention the possibility of an additional loss). You’ll see the counterbalance come in the quality of the nonconference schedule. At the least, those two games must be home games. Georgia can just about kiss goodbye the idea of a home-and-home nonconference series.
Would moving the Florida game to campus help?
In terms of the raw scheduling logistics, yes. But since our focus is on money, Georgia and Florida will likely fight to keep this a neutral-site game as long as possible. When we covered last May the coming increases to GA-FL ticket prices, we noted that the two-year haul for Georgia could be as high as $7 million by 2017. No way can either school make $7 million from the game over two years in a home-and-home arrangement.
Touching the third rail here, but what about Tech?
Yes – Georgia already has a permanent home-and-home nonconference deal. We’ve seen conference realignment wreck other longstanding series – Texas-Texas A&M, Kansas-Missouri, and even South Carolina and Clemson have looked at legislative options for protecting their annual meeting. Could it happen to Georgia and Georgia Tech? It would certainly free up wiggle room in Georgia’s nonconference schedule and allow for the occasional home-and-home.
Is it a good idea? Not to me. Even moreso than Auburn, playing Georgia Tech is what Georgia does. Control of the state is fought for and renewed annually. It would not be a good thing for Tech to exist and maybe even build its brand in some shadow parallel universe next to Georgia. The annual meeting is essential to Georgia’s standing in the state.
At this point in the season it’s pretty clear that, barring another improbable SEC Tournament run, the postseason isn’t in the future for this Georgia basketball team. They’re left to build for the future, get what wins they can, and maybe even play spoiler.
The spoiler role is exactly what fell into Georgia’s lap on Wednesday against Arkansas. Georgia was fed up with losing and looked for a fight. The Hogs were about as good of a matchup as Georgia could have asked for. Like the Dawgs, Arkansas is a guard-dominated team without a strong inside presence. They don’t rebound well, and they struggle on the road. We knew all that, but was Georgia in any kind of position to do anything about it?
Georgia’s start, and particularly the start of Robinson, showed that they were. Robinson and KCP hit from outside early, and Robinson’s shooting and driving soon opened things up inside. Nemi, Thornton, and Williams were able to be active inside as the Georgia perimeter game drew plenty of attention. Georgia’s offense was helped by their work on the other end – Arkansas’ struggles on offense meant that the Hogs couldn’t set up their press. That made it easier for Georgia to work the ball quickly up the court where they could set up in the halfcourt offense and attack Arkansas’ weaknesses.
Arkansas has had some bright moments this year with high-profile wins over teams like Michigan and Vanderbilt. Their road record is the glaring weakness now, and they missed out on what might be their best chance for a road conference win. Unfortunately for the Hogs, they don’t play the NCAA Tournament in Fayetteville. And Georgia is pretty much the definition of a “bad loss” right now.
This was Georgia at their best, and it was the blueprint for what Georgia would have to be almost every night for the team to have much success this year. The shots haven’t always fallen that way for the guards, and that’s led to some tough nights. Other teams like Ole Miss have had the inside presence to control the boards and turn Georgia into a stagnant jump-shooting team. The Dawgs won’t find many more matchups as favorable as they did Wednesday, but anything can happen if the guards are bringing it like that.
Georgia won’t have many chances left to play the spoiler; there are only three home games left on the schedule. A home date in a couple of weeks against Vanderbilt looks like the best shot. Georgia still needs three wins to match the 5–11 SEC record in Mark Fox’s first season in Athens. The Dawgs have a couple of winnable games against South Carolina remaining, and LSU could be a toss-up though it’s a road game.
Lady Dogs
Andy Landers’ squad is enjoying a bye week at the moment, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. This team is so banged up that substitution patterns are dictated by deciding who is less injured. Jasmine James and Krista Donald were the key injuries over the past few weeks. Just as James was ready to start working back in, Meredith Mitchell took a knee to the forehead and had to miss all but the first two minutes of the Alabama game. The plan had been to give James a few minutes of playing time to shake off the rust against Alabama, but Mitchell’s injury meant that James came right back off of her injury to play 32 minutes. She accepted the challenge and led the team with 18 points.
The Lady Dogs currently stand at 18-6, 7-4 in the SEC. They’re in 4th place, but a game either way could have them anywhere from 3rd to 8th place. As usual, there’s a pretty tightly-contested pack in the middle of the league. The good news is that Georgia has already run the Tennessee and Kentucky gauntlet. The not-so-good news is that four of the team’s final five games are against good teams fighting for position in that same pack of teams. It starts with a rematch against Vanderbilt this Sunday. Vandy has been hit or miss this year, but they used a blistering outside attack and a tough matchup zone to blow past Georgia in Nashville last month. Vandy is one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment and just knocked off Tennessee. Georgia should at least be as healthy coming off the bye week as they’ve been in over a month, and they’ll need every player during the last stretch.
The gusto with which Grantham has approached recruiting has been noteworthy. It’s especially so if you think about how foreign and distasteful recruiting can seem to someone coming from the NFL. Recruiting isn’t pleasant – if you believe the talk, it’s a part of the reason why Van Gorder left the college ranks. I don’t know if it’s unusual or not, but it surprised me to see Grantham jump out there with enthusiasm shortly after he took the job and start laying the groundwork for the Dream Team class. I’m sure it registered that he’d need players to make his system successful, but becoming a recruiter again still had to be an adjustment.
Entering his third season, Grantham now has a couple of things working in his favor that he didn’t have when he arrived: first, he can point to results to establish legitimacy. It was one thing to connect the dots to DeMarcus Ware and NFL success, but now the current Georgia defense is its own advertisement. Second, he now has the lay of the land. He spent a lot of time in first year visiting high schools across Georgia. The relationships are in place, and he needs no introduction now. He should have a better idea where the players are that he’ll need to run his system.
With a strong recruiting staff including Garner, Bobo, and Lilly working alongside him, Grantham should be expected to remain one of the top recruiters in the nation and keep the Georgia defense stocked with talent. Given the needs of the 2013 class, it’ll be his biggest recruiting challenge yet.
Georgia has dismissed three players from the football team: redshirt freshman receiver Sanford Seay and freshman defensive backs Nick Marshall and Chris Sanders.
I’ll leave the gory details and the finger-wagging to others – we’ll move on to the impact on the team. Seay wasn’t likely to break into the receiver rotation any time soon. You don’t want to write off the contribution of someone who hadn’t seen the field yet, but the program was already recruiting above him.
The losses of Marshall and Sanders are more significant. To begin with, say a little prayer that Rambo and Williams (not to mention Smith and Commings) decided to return as seniors. Georgia’s secondary should be in decent shape for 2012, but it can’t absorb many more losses or injuries. (This assumes Sanders Commings remains with the team, and that’s an unsettled situation.)
Georgia’s defensive backfield becomes even more of a priority for 2013 recruiting than it was. Once the seniors leave, these are the only remaining scholarship defensive backs:
Fr. Sheldon Dawson
RFr. Devin Bowman
RSo. Marc Deas
So. Quintavious Harrow
So. Corey Moore
So. Damian Swann
Yikes. Marshall and Sanders were quality players who earned time as true freshmen. Their voids in the pipeline really hurt the present and future depth chart.
The bigger issue is one we touched on yesterday. Attrition is a rite of passage each offseason. Georgia has already started the year undermanned even after a nice signing class. The Recruiter’s Roster has been updated with the signings and dismissals, and the Dawgs are down to around 76 scholarship players. With 14 seniors, that’s 23 spots open for 2013 signees, and that doesn’t consider likely NFL entrants, the Commings situation, or future attrition.
Bret Bielema’s on about “gentlemen’s agreements” and unwritten rules. Urban Meyer has upset the applecart by daring to pursue and sign prospects that had committed elsewhere (and who were apparently quite receptive to listen to schools other than those to which they had committed.)
It would be useful to hear Bielema explore his ideas of gentlemanly conduct and just which unwritten rules he’ll follow. “Don’t recruit someone else’s commitment.” Check. “Don’t go for two up 25 with less than 5 minutes left.” Well…
Unwritten rules are for baseball. If they’re not written, they’re not rules.
There’s a tendency to equate a successful class with a frenzy of Signing Day activity. If you make more noise, you get talked about on the Signing Day shows, and the casual fan thinks, “job well done.”
While Georgia fans might mope about Avery Young or wonder what happened to all of the flips and rumors of mystery signees that always get people going leading into Signing Day, it’s useful to see what other people are saying about Georgia’s efforts:
Georgia’s 2012 signing class includes the top-rated prospect from Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and arguably Florida.
As Radi Nabulsi pointed out yesterday, ESPN actually ranks the 2012 class higher (relative to the rest of the nation) than it did the 2011 Dream Team class. Of the players who are rated less than four stars, you’re including a couple of kickers and a fullback – positions of need where even the best rarely get much attention from recruiting analysts. Pretty much every guy signed makes sense; you can see how each fits into the needs and identity of the program.
If there’s a flaw in the class, it’s in quantity rather than quality. If you put faith in the accuracy of the Recruiter’s Roster (and we do), you’re looking at about 61 returning scholarship players. Add the 19 members of the 2012 class, including early enrollees, and you’re right at about 80. Even if there were zero attrition between now and the start of the season, Georgia is well shy of the 85 scholarship limit. Zero attrition would be an extremely rare and exceptional offseason. So it’s likely that the Bulldogs will enter the season with between 75-80 scholarship players (before deserving walk-ons are placed on scholarship.)
Is that a big deal? After all, no team plays all 85 players. SEC teams aren’t even allowed to dress more than 75 (home) or 65 (road) for conference games. If it didn’t matter, teams wouldn’t get bent out of shape over losing a couple of scholarships in NCAA sanctions. If it didn’t matter, oversigning wouldn’t be nearly the issue that it is. This is where your future is developed. It’s the redshirts and the special teams contributors.
A total consistently lower than the limit means that the ones you do sign had better count. It’s how you end up with walk-ons at linebacker or safety after just an injury or two. Remember that this class is in the context of a depth situation that was already thin. Georgia hasn’t come close to the 85 limit for a couple of years. The Dawgs were around 80 scholarship players in 2010, even lower in 2011, and they start 2012 already in a position to make half a dozen walk-ons very happy. It’s a metaphor we’ve used before, but imagine a probation period of three years with a reduction of five scholarships. That’s Ohio State territory, and it’s a condition that’s more or less self-inflicted at Georgia.
A 2012 class with fewer than 20 signees wasn’t the intended strategy. You can identify 5 or 6 guys that the Dawgs would have gladly taken on Signing Day. One would have hoped, for example, for more than three offensive linemen – not only are you replacing the three seniors; you’re also plugging the hole left by Brent Benedict. The class wasn’t also heavy on defensive backs or interior linebackers, and those will be areas of concern sooner than later.
Of course the staff could have found a few guys to take those spots and make everyone feel better about the numbers, but there were no Plan Bs this year. That’s fine in that it gives the staff the room for quality players in the future, but sooner or later that room has to be used. Offensive line aside, Georgia met enough needs to be in good shape for the 2012 season. Looking much beyond the short-term shows the big job ahead.
The opportunity – and the need – is there for a big 2013 class. There is room for several early entrants that would count against the 2012 class. There are just 14 seniors, but you can pretty much count on a few juniors heading to the NFL after next season. With just a normal amount of attrition, the 2013 class should easily hold at least 25. Now can the staff – which did a great job identifying and closing on the 19 they did sign – widen their net and bring in that same quality to a larger haul in 2013?
It’s noon, and all of Georgia’s verbal commitments have signed. There have been two additions to the class so far, and they’re major. The news has been good enough to move the Dawgs’ 2012 class up to #5 on ESPN’s rankings, but there is still some drama to come. While we catch our breath and wait for the afternoon’s decisions, some thoughts on the events so far:
Cordarrelle Patterson signing with Tennessee. This was a mild surprise; many of us had expected Georgia to get the nod. For all of Tennessee’s problems, they’ll have a tremendous trio of receivers next year with Hunter, Rogers, and Patterson. It might be the best set in the SEC.
Dalvin Tomlinson to Alabama. We considered it a longshot for Tomlinson to sign with Georgia, but it would have been nice. He’s a quality defensive lineman. You just got the feeling that this just wasn’t going to go the Dawgs’ way when it wouldn’t work out for Tomlinson to take an official visit to Georgia. The silver lining? He won’t be signing with Georgia Tech, and that was a very real possibility. Tomlinson heading to Bama means that Tech has lost their last and best chance for any kind of Signing Day splash.
Josh Harvey-Clemons signing with Georgia. He was the highest-rated prospect in Georgia according to several recruiting services. He’ll slide right in to the all-important outside linebacker spot, but Georgia coaches would love to use his athleticism in other ways – like a red zone receiver target.
Josh Dawson flipping from Vandy to Georgia. This one had been buzzing for a while, but, again, we know how accurate rumors of flips are. Ordinarily stealing someone from Vandy isn’t something to celebrate, but Dawson is a 4* prospect that was a gem in a solid Commodore class. Georgia coaches should watch their back…James Franklin can’t be happy about losing Dawson.
The flips that weren’t. Rumors of flips and “mystery signees” are rampant every signing day, but it’s so rare for them to pan out. Josh Dawson was a nice exception. But Brandon Greem, JaQuay Williams, and Kenderius Whitehead all stuck with their original commitments.
Dorial Green-Beckham to Missouri. The Tigers will enter the SEC with arguably the nation’s top incoming freshman. Green-Beckham is an outstanding receiver that will give SEC defenses problems for the next three years. Everyone down on Georgia’s 2012 schedule should take another look at that Missouri game. Mizzou will be pumped to host its first SEC game. They’re already a solid program, and now they add a threat like DGB to a potent offense. The timing of the game might be the good news for Georgia; he’ll still be raw and finding his way that early in the season. A big splash is not impossible though – Sammy Watkins had 10 catches for 155 yards and 2 TD in just his third game.
Georgia’s 2012 defense will be sponsored by Flying J. John, James, Jordan, Josh, Josh, and Jonathan join a defense starring Jarvis Jones and John Jenkins.
There are a ton of sites now with Signing Day pages, but we’ll focus on two:
The official Signing Day page at georgiadogs.com. Signings shouldn’t be considered official until the school posts them, and this is where they’ll do it. Most everyone else will be sourcing from this info anyway.
Twitter is perfect for the fast pace of Signing Day, and that’s where most of the news will break first. Rather than suggest dozens of people to follow, we’ll make it simple.
We’ve created a Twitter list of 20 or so of the media outlets and recruiting services/blogs that will have relevant content on Signing Day. Just follow this list, and you’ll see the tweets from all of those people whether or not you follow them. Follow @dawgsonline/UGASigningDay11
If all of the sites and analysis and rumors throughout the day are a bit too much and you just want to know who signed where, we’ve created a Twitter account for that, too. Just follow @uga_nsd. It’s a low-noise feed that will just tell you 1) when someone has signed with Georgia and 2) the Signing Day decisions of 8-10 key prospects where Georgia is heavily involved. It shouldn’t be more than 30-35 tweets throughout the day, so you can even sign up for mobile notifications on that @uga_nsd account and not be overwhelmed.
Of course you can keep up with the #signingday hashtag for nationwide recruiting news and talk.
Georgia held a press conference this afternoon to announce, confirm, settle, and resolve that Orson Charles would be the only early departure from the 2011 team. Much of this news leaked out earlier in the week, but a lot of that was second-hand information. Solid, but still second-hand. Flanked by several juniors and team leaders, Mark Richt was understandably “thrilled” to reveal that all draft-eligible underclassmen, save Charles, would be returning for 2012. He also announced that sophomore quarterback Hutson Mason decided against a transfer and will remain a Bulldog.
Georgia was smart to pull together an event like this. Such press conferences are usually held to announce departures, but it’s not uncommon for high-profile players to use an event to announce their return. Being able to present a group of rising juniors and seniors of this quality to speak about why they’re returning, the common goals, and their vision for 2012 is a rare opportunity. It’s a shot of positive press during the peak of recruiting season. It’s also a gauntlet thrown: everyone pledging to return recognizes what is possible in 2012, and they’re embracing the expectations along with the possibilities. It’s now up to them to make it happen.
The biggest impact of this news will be on the defense. Almost all of the players considering the NFL draft were on that side of the ball. Now that it appears every draft-eligible junior and sophomore will return in 2012, we’re able to start thinking about a defense that will return 9 of 11 starters.
The two departing starters are big ones: Georgia sure could have used the athleticism of Tyson in the postseason (thanks, Jay Finch!), and lack of depth at the defensive end spot didn’t help as LSU’s offensive line took over and Michigan State held off the Georgia pass rush. And Boykin – it could take as many as three or four (very good) players to try to do what he did for the 2011 team.
The answer, at least at cornerback, seems clear. It’s Branden Smith’s to lose. Smith improved his coverage in 2011, and I’m entirely content with a secondary of Commings, Smith, Williams, and Rambo. The questions lie in depth. Swann played a good deal in 2011, and Marshall saw a lot of time on special teams. Chris Sanders will also play in a reserve role. Jordan Love would have helped, but he’s decided to transfer.
The picture at defensive end is a little less clear. You didn’t hear his name much in the list of players considering the NFL, but I’m thrilled to have Abry Jones back. You assume Garrison Smith has a good shot at the other end spot considering that he was first off the bench when Tyson was injured. Smith did well in relief, especially against Tech, but there wasn’t much behind him. Ray Drew, who spent much of his freshman season struggling with the transition to outside linebacker, might be more comfortable and effective on the line after adding a few added pounds.
The starting four at linebacker – Jones, Gilliard, Ogletree, and Washington – are outstanding. Washington’s consistency can be an issue, but otherwise there aren’t many weaknesses among that group. As we saw after Ogletree’s injury, depth here too is an issue. Herrera contributed well and lost playing time as the starters became healthy, but you expect his progress to continue. Having an experienced leader like Robinson to step in situationally is a valuable bonus. Ramik Wilson and other newcomers should have an opportunity to play.
I think that a lot of the depth issues we’re talking about were responsible for Georgia’s second half problems against some of its better opponents. Guys like Jenkins were able to step into immediate needs, but Georgia is still feeling the effects of a couple of underwhelming recruiting classes. No offense to guys like Jeremy Sulek who earned every bit of playing time they got, but it’s illustrative that the loss of a starter can throw the depth chart into such a crisis.
Will those depth issues be resolved in 2012? With minimal losses, it won’t be worse. Via the invaluable Recruiter’s Roster, we can see that Georgia adds in three redshirt freshmen. You expect a little development from the handful of true freshmen who saw action either on defense or special teams. There should also be a small number of true freshmen who are able to earn their way on the field, though the need for immediate contribution isn’t as strong as it might have been in 2011. So, yes, Georgia’s defense should be a little deeper overall.
There are a few gotchas about the depth. You assume a certain amount of development from one year to the next, but that doesn’t always work out. The defense will also be deeper at some spots than others. Another look at the Recruiter’s Roster reveals a scary picture on the defensive line – Mike Thornton is the only player standing between the junior class and any true freshmen. Again, it might take some position changes to help that situation while a nice 2012 haul of defensive linemen gets up to speed. Then there is always the possibility of injury. Georgia was fortunate to make it through spring and most of the season with few long-term injuries, but that’s not common. They were able to overcome the loss of Ogletree for the first half of the season against lighter competition, but they really missed Tyson and Gilliard in the postseason.
As good as the news was about everyone returning for 2012, it means that the turnover heading into 2013 is going to be brutal. This is the window when the “Dream Team” should be coming into its own, but it’s also going to require some very strong 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes to maintain the talent level on defense.
Georgia will miss Orson Charles, but if you told me a month ago that he’d be the only early departure from the 2011 squad, I’d have considered it foolishly optimistic. We feared that Charles’s announcement yesterday would open the floodgates, but only good news started to pour in.
It was, for the offseason, quite a day. Around noon on Wedneday, we were faced with both the impending departure of Charles as well as rumors about the Falcons reaching out to Todd Grantham. By the end of the day, yes, Charles had indeed announced his departure. But then word spread that Rambo was staying. Grantham smartly issued a statement to put an immediate halt to rumors about him leaving. We soon found out that Shawn Williams and Cornelius Washington had also decided to stay. By the end of the day, it appeared as if Jarvis Jones succeeded in his mission to return the entire group of eligible defensive early entrants.
These were smart decisions. I don’t ever begrudge anyone who follows their dream, but Charles was the only player considering the NFL where another year might not make a world’s difference. I admit there is some selfishness to seeing good players hang around as long as possible in Athens, but none of the defensive players returning (Jarvis Jones excepted) were probable high-round picks. It’s an indication that, despite the temptation, hangers-on looking to make a buck, and possible personal need of the quick payday, these guys had some good advice coming from somewhere that they were mature enough to heed.
“If you’re not a top 15 pick you should stay in school,†Grantham stated flatly. “If you’re a top 15 pick, the amount of money that you make you can justify it. But if you’re not, you should work to become that. Because if you look at the guaranteed money you make up at the top is so great, you can actually make money by staying. You go from being a middle second-round pick to a bottom first- or top-second-round pick, you’re talking hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. You can make that by working hard.â€
Of course that last sentence is the key. Take a guy like Bacarri Rambo. He entered the 2011 season as a wildcard. He didn’t have the best sophomore season, and he was suspended for the first game. Rambo put in the work to go from an iffy starter to a legitimate pro prospect. Now he’ll enter the 2012 season as a known entity, he’ll be on every relevant preseason watch list, and he’ll be playing on what should be one hell of a defense. If he continues to work, he’ll illustrate Grantham’s point and realize a windfall when he enters the 2013 draft in much better position than he would have in 2012.
Nothing is 100% official until the deadline to enter the draft passes this Sunday. At least for now it looks as if Georgia will have one of its most experienced and deepest defenses heading into 2012, and they’ll still have their coordinator to continue the development that took place in 2011.
It’s a combination we were fortunate enough to see several times while the two played for Georgia, and it was nice to see Thompkins feed Leslie for Travis’s first NBA dunk last night. It’s great to see them both find a spot on an NBA roster.
Georgia lost only one player from last season’s Sweet 16 group, but it was a significant loss: Porsha Phillips was Georgia’s top rebounder and a big presence inside on both ends of the court. With Phillips gone, the Lady Dogs have gone just a little smaller. On the upside, they are able to have 4 players on the court with outside range. Anne Marie Armstrong nominally takes over for Phillips. Armstrong of course isn’t a power forward but has the size and jumping ability to play inside. As a natural wing, Armstrong can put it up from outside or make quick moves to the basket with a long stride.
Jasmine Hassell returns as Georgia’s inside presence. Hassell has continued to improve, especially on defense. She continues to have a nice scoring touch around the basket and was key to Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech. Tamika Willis can provide important minutes off the bench at center.
Georgia starting guards all return. Mitchell is the team’s lone senior and can play anywhere from the 1-3 spots. James and Miller hold down the traditional guard spots with James playing the majority of possession at the point. All three of these guards, in addition to Armstrong, are threats to hit from outside.
Two freshmen have worked into the rotation. Guard Erika Ford brings a refreshing attacking style on offense and has proved especially good at driving the baseline. Krista Donald is seeing time at small forward and has impressed me with her intensity and aggressive rebounding.
Though I’d argue that the team is as all-around strong as it’s been in several years, a few weaknesses stick out. Size is one of the obvious ones. Teams with well-developed frontcourts can give Georgia plenty of trouble. Turnovers can also be an issue. Georgia’s solid defense means that they enjoy a positive turnover margin, but the team is still averaging over 15 turnovers per game.
The Season So Far:
Georgia’s nonconference slate this year wasn’t incredibly challenging. Though they’ve lost only two games, the bad news is that those losses were against the only ranked teams on the schedule. The Lady Dogs were competitive but just short of a good Georgetown team. They led Gonzaga by 15 points late in the game, but a complete collapse with turnovers and missed free throws resulted in a shocking loss. The good news is that Georgia has avoided slip-ups against lesser teams. They have a handful of decent wins against quality opponents with Georgia Tech, TCU, and USC highlighting their resume. Georgia has been ranked in the teens for most of the season.
Around the SEC:
It’s a familiar landscape to those who have followed SEC women’s hoops lately. You have a top tier with Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia. Vanderbilt is pesky as always and can probably be considered a favorite to earn a top four position. Several teams have similar records at this point, but there’s a wide spread in strength of schedule. Mississippi State’s 10-3 is nowhere near the quality of Tennessee’s 10-3. That said, Tennessee – while still very good and probably still the class of the league – has shown some vulnerability. The problem is the relative lack of challengers. Kentucky has to be considered a legitimate threat to win the conference, but few others have the resume to this point that would establish themselves as SEC contenders.
A storyline this year will be the movement among teams in the middle tier. South Carolina has improved over the past several seasons. LSU is trying not to slip very far under a new coach. Arkansas has a nice collection of scorers. There are no truly awful teams – even Alabama has some nice results to their credit. It’s going to be a long year though for teams like Ole Miss, and Auburn is already 8-6.
The new year means that basketball season is about to head into conference play. For the women, SEC action is already underway. The Lady Dogs had an impressive win over Arkansas last Sunday, and they’ll be in Knoxville tonight. The men start things off with a familiar foe: the quirks of the schedule and SEC Tournament mean that Alabama will be the opponent for the third time in the last four conference games. That’s not necessarily good news: the Tide dispatched Georgia twice last year and will be favored to do so again this time. Playing Alabama has a tiny bit of added significance now: Georgia and Alabama replaced coaches at the same time, and in some small way Mark Fox and Anthony Grant will be compared and contrasted as long as they hold their current posts.
With the start of conference play nigh and the football season now over, let’s play catch-up and see where our basketball teams are over a third of the way into the season. We’ll start with the men.
Men
The Team:
You didn’t have to be an expert to get an early read on the 2012 Dawgs. The departure of Travis Leslie and Trey Thompkins in addition to the graduation of Chris Barnes and Jeremy Price meant that this year’s team would be woefully thin in the frontcourt. The only hope was for an impact newcomer, and that didn’t exactly happen. Georgia did bring in several young post players, but they’re understandably, well, young and are having to learn on the job.
Donte Williams and Marcus Thornton have started most of the year up front. Thornton’s had to play a bit out of position – he’s a natural small forward and not really a post, and he’s been injured for the past few games. Still, he’s managed to be Georgia’s leading rebounder out of the gate.
Nemanja Djurisic is one of the newcomers and has started while Thornton is out injured. Djurisic is “raw” personified, but he isn’t afraid to drive to the basket or fight for rebounds. He also has nice range on his shot, giving the Dawgs a fourth outside weapon when he’s in the game. John Florveus and Tim Dixon are the other newcomers providing minutes in the frontcourt, and Connor Nolte continues to contribute off the bench.
Struggles on the frontcourt have had an impact on the guards. A lot was expected of returning senior starters Dustin Ware and Gerald Robinson, and it’s been tough for either to establish consistency. A weak frontcourt means that defenses can extend on the guards, and that’s been disruptive.
There have been two positive developments in the backcourt. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was Georgia’s first McDonald’s All-American signing in 20 years, and he hasn’t disappointed. KCP leads Georgia in scoring and has the ability to make the steal, the move, or the dunk that gets the crowd on its feet. He’s a freshman and still has a lot to learn and work on in shot selection and especially defense, but he’s off to a great start. The other good development has been the play of Vincent Williams. Williams has come on as a backup point guard and shows a lot more confidence in his shot. He’s even earned the start lately over Ware.
The Season So Far:
As expected with the turnover from last season’s NCAA Tournament team, it’s been a rough go of it for the Dawgs. Georgia is 9-5 going into conference play. If there’s one thing positive in the results so far, it’s that the team hasn’t had a truly bad loss – with one exception. The home loss to a poor Georgia Tech team was possibly the low point of the season and really highlighted the deficiencies of the Dawgs. To Georgia’s credit, they rebounded and have won five straight. The Dawgs don’t really have any marquee wins under their belt, but some nice wins away from from against Notre Dame and Southern Cal were impressive.
Around the SEC:
As shaky as Georgia has looked so far, they’re far from the worst team in the league. That says a lot about the state of the bottom tier of the SEC, but it could also help the Dawgs avoid the basement even with their shortcomings. If the guards can carry the team past a couple of lower-tier conference foes, they should break clear of the bottom third of the league.
As expected, Kentucky and Florida are off to strong starts. Kentucky is the clear favorite and a national title contender, but the Gators aren’t to be dismissed. Mississippi State had moderately strong expectations after a disappointing season a year ago, and they’ve lived up to the billing so far. The Bulldogs have stepped up their typically weak nonconference slate, and they’ve met the challenge.
Alabama has been a slight disappointment. The Tide started the season ranked and won their first seven. They lost three of four in early December, but they’ve since righted the ship. Their 25-point demolition of Georgia Tech this week was appreciated, but it’s also a warning to what awaits Georgia in their SEC opener. Vanderbilt has been the league’s real disappointment. They started the year in the top 10. Some early losses to quality opponents fell in the “close call, but no shame” category, but chance after chance to establish themselves among the top third of the league was missed. A convincing win over Marquette demonstrated what the Commodores can do, but they’ve missed that target more often than not this year.
Then there’s the bottom half of the league. Each division has three teams that are going to struggle to earn much postseason notice. The West might have the slightly stronger group: LSU and Ole Miss aren’t awful, but Auburn is. Georgia and a Tennessee program with their new coach could battle for 4th/5th in the East, and South Carolina should wind up on the bottom.
Remember that the SEC is going away from divisional standings this year. Though the schedule will still follow a divisional format (which doesn’t make much sense), the teams will be sorted on overall conference record. Under this system, Georgia could realistically finish somewhere around 7th-10th this year.
The backlash over Georgia’s 2012 schedule is well underway. I don’t deny that the schedule opens up some great opportunities, but let’s win them first and worry about impressing the critics later.
If Georgia does have a big year in 2012, it’s going to have to come with wins:
at a jacked-up Missouri hosting their first-ever SEC game. Missouri will likely finish 2011 ranked, is well-coached, and should have another competitive team in 2012.
at South Carolina to play a program that returns a lot of talent in a stadium where Georgia usually doesn’t win easily. Georgia has lost two straight to the Gamecocks, and South Carolina will likely see Georgia as their primary obstacle to winning the East.
in Jacksonville where, Florida down or not, the Dawgs haven’t put together consecutive wins since the Reagan-Bush years.
against a very good, likely top 5, team in the SEC Championship if the Dawgs are able to return to the Dome.
And all of that says nothing of traditional rivalries with Tennessee, Auburn, and Georgia Tech – teams that would give a lot to ruin our season, and teams that have spoiled some Georgia seasons in recent years.
Jon Fabris, call your agent
Comments
Dawg Media
RSS 2.0