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Post Weekend hoops

Monday November 20, 2006

The men got an expected easy win over Valdosta State on Saturday. The story of the game was the debut of Takais Brown, and he shook off some early rust to really make an impression. A consistent player who looks to score inside is a big hole filled for this team. UGASports.com has a nice interview ($) up with Brown.

If there’s a red flag this early in the season, it’s wing defense. Courtney Lee lit up Georgia from the wing earlier this week, and on Saturday Valdosta State had two 20+ nights from the 2/3 spots. I understand that most teams have big scorers at those positions, but that makes it even more of a point of defensive emphasis. The Dawgs will have to get better at guarding the swingmen.

The women had a scare on Sunday and had to overcome a six-point second half deficit to beat Davidson. Davidson is picked to win their conference and has a senior-heavy lineup comfortable in a sound system, so Georgia expected a challenge. I doubt they expected this result though. Davidson played a good defensive game, choked off Georgia’s inside game, and made it back-and-forth for much of the afternoon. Cori Chambers kept the Lady Dogs alive time after time, and freshman Christy Marshall showed up in the second half with some devastating mid-range shots. Defense and rebounding finally made a difference down the stretch, but this was anyone’s game with two minutes left. Kudos to Megan Darrah – she had her first career double-double on Wednesday night and followed that up with another against Davidson. Her rebounding was a difference-maker in Sunday’s game, and she’s come such a long way in just a year.


Post Great game, but no rematch

Monday November 20, 2006

Going into Saturday’s Michigan-Ohio State game, I gave the Wolverines the slight edge. I thought their run defense would be good enough to make the Buckeye offense rely too heavily on the pass. I also thought that a healthy Hart would give Michigan the balance they needed on offense. I was right about Michigan’s offense. Hart ran well, and Henne played a fair game. But he and the Michigan passing game were not spectacular, and Troy Smith and his receivers were.

But what I really missed on was discounting Ohio State’s big play threat at tailback. Antonio Pittman has been a dependable back this year, rushing for over 1,000 yards. Chris Wells is a typical freshman superstar – electrifying but inexperienced and mistake-prone. They’re both very good players who would probably be standouts on other teams. I, and probably many others, just didn’t expect them to be able to gash a top rush defense. Each had a touchdown run of over 50 yards, and those two touchdowns plus a solid afternoon from Smith & Co. were too much for any team to overcome. Credit Michigan for even coming close.

The final margin ended up being three points, but this felt like a two-score win for Ohio State. After Michigan’s initial touchdown, the Buckeyes grabbed control of the game early in the second quarter. Each time Michigan scored and found life, Ohio State responded to keep the Wolverines at a comfortable distance. Even when Michigan scored late and brought it within three points, you never really felt the urgency because you knew, if it really mattered, Ohio State would simply answer again.

Michigan is a fine team. The score doesn’t bother me – it was a slugfest just as last year’s Rose Bowl was, and it doesn’t mean that anyone’s defense is suddenly terrible. Ohio State simply had the means to attack Michigan and keep the foot on the gas. If your team has a Heisman front-runner at QB, an elite receiving corps that runs three or four deep, and two tailbacks who can take it to the house, you might too.

The talk quickly turned to a rematch in the national title game. Those on Michigan’s side claim that the Wolverines showed that they are worthy of the #2 spot and another shot on a neutral field. I’m sure that Ohio State fans feel that they’ve already proven that they can beat Michigan. And of course others in the Florida and SoCal camps claim that it’s wide open now and time for another team to get a shot. Though the BCS standings disagree with me, I have to side with those who don’t want to see a rematch.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with a rematch for the national title. It happens all the time in playoff systems. It even happens sometimes in college football, especially in conferences which have championship games. Georgia and LSU met during the regular season in 2003 and also played for the SEC title. Had Georgia won the December game at the Georgia Dome, they’d have been SEC champs despite losing earlier in the year at Baton Rouge. That’s a fact of life that we proponents of a playoff system must live with. Does it make the regular season game "meaningless"? Not really, in that regular season games determine the shape of the postseason. We recognize though that the postseason is a different stage on which teams have to prove themselves again.

But if we’re not going to have a playoff in college football, then rematches seem improper. Instead of a postseason where we reseed teams and start a new season, the college football regular season resembles one big game of "king of the mountain" that continues on for one more game in the bowls. A team starts the season at #1 and remains there until they are knocked off. There are a select few who get a direct chance to knock #1 from the top. If they can’t do it, they’ve had their shot, and it is appropriate for a different team to get the opportunity. People like to talk about a playoff diminishing the importance of the regular season, but let’s set up a BCS rematch that says Saturday’s loss by Michigan has no consequences.

Though he agrees with me, it’s amusing to hear the criticism of a rematch coming from Florida’s Urban Meyer. Though Meyer was not Florida’s coach in 1996, the Gators’ championship came in a rematch against FSU. Florida wasn’t even the #2 team entering their bowl (this was still pre-BCS). It took a combination of events including an upset in the Big 12 title game and an Ohio State comeback win over Arizona State in the Rose Bowl to make that UF-FSU rematch a default national title game. Meyer’s pretzel logic explaining why Florida has a better case than Arkansas is also good stuff. The Hogs will have their chance to say something about that in two weeks.


Post Schembechler dies

Friday November 17, 2006

Former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler is dead at age 77. We know this will hit the Michigan family hard, so our thoughts are with them.

It’s anyone’s guess how this will affect the game. Will Michigan be stunned, or will they ride the emotion? I think that something like this means a lot more to the fans and coaches than the players – Bo hadn’t had much of an official position at Michigan since the early 1990s. We saw this ourselves earlier this year when Erk Russell passed away. Fans still talk about it, but other than a helmet sticker it hasn’t had a tremendous impact on the team. But surely Michigan will get caught up in what the fans and media are going through, so they will have plenty of emotions to handle.

Before Schembechler’s death, I had a slight edge to Michigan in this game. I think they have the better defense and a more well-rounded offense (given the running game behind Hart). But Ohio State had the homefield and the ridiculously good WR corps and QB. Now…who knows?


Post On the air

Friday November 17, 2006

I’m a guest on this week’s UGASportsLIVE (Episode 39), talking about the Lady Dogs and their outlook for the season. My segment comes right before a nice interview with coach Andy Landers with his take on the early season.

I know I’ve said this before, and it’s not just because I’m on there from time to time, but this weekly podcast seems right up the alley for most every die-hard Dawg fan. Give it a listen – it’s free.

Think of it as the 60 Minutes of Bulldog sports. It’s professionally produced, and they get the news makers – coaches, players, media experts, and prospects. For everyone outside of Athens who has wished for a Bulldog-focused talk show, give this a try.


Post Bulldog frontcourt to get a shot in the arm

Friday November 17, 2006

JUCO forward Takais Brown has been cleared to play by coach Dennis Felton after serving a suspension to get his academics in order. “Obviously he has been doing better academically,” Felton said. Brown will hopefully add some firepower to a frontcourt that will have to pick up the slack at times this year from a talented but inconsistent backcourt.

I’m looking forward to seeing him in action. This Saturday’s game with Valdosta State will be his first.


Post Familiar problem plagues Hoop Dawgs in loss

Wednesday November 15, 2006

I know it’s still early in the basketball season – off the radar even for most Georgia fans – but last night’s loss to Western Kentucky was pretty disheartening. It’s not that the Hilltoppers are a bad team; they are the favorites in their conference. The disappointing part is that one of Georgia’s biggest issues last season seems to still be a problem.

Last year after a loss to Nevada, I wrote that Georgia’s biggest problem was the lack of a go-to guy. They certainly had some talent, but there was no one on the team they could trust with the ball when the game was on the line. Unfortunately, that same problem persists this year – at least for now. Billy Humphrey disappeared in the second half. Mike Mercer was likewise streaky. Terrance Woodbury, touted as a hidden gem, was nowhere. Veterans Stukes and Gaines were on the bench for much of the stretch run. Post play was better but still in no position to take over the game.

Western Kentucky did have such a player. Courtney Lee was the best guy on the court last night, and, as Fazekas for Nevada last year, provided a very good contrast and example of what it means to have a player who can be depended upon to make significant plays at the end of a game. A play in the final minute illustrated that perfectly. With the shot clock running down and Georgia still ahead by a point, Billy Humphrey tried to set up an isolation play and held the ball almost at halfcourt until the final seconds of the shot clock. Lee defended him perfectly, forced Humphrey to attempt a shot from at least 22 feet, and even blocked the shot enabling Western Kentucky to take their first lead. Forget the 20+ points – that’s a clutch playmaker.

Until Albert Jackson or even Takais Brown can show otherwise, this is still a guard-driven team, and they will continue to rise and fall with the inconsistencies of those guards. You can add depth, and you can turn the calendar and add another year of experience, but none of that matters if you don’t know who should have the ball with a minute left.

While Western Kentucky got big plays from their go-to guy, Georgia choked up, committed consecutive turnovers, took poor shots, and finished the game on the wrong side of a 15-2 run. How unfortunate on a night when the team paid tribute to the spirit of Kevin Brophy. This isn’t a year or two ago where we could hang our hat on the occasional nice play and pat the team on the head for a nice effort when we knew they were outmanned. This team led the entire game, held a double-digit lead with around five minutes left, and showed no urgency or response to the challenge that Western Kentucky gave them at the end.

Georgia expects, or at least hopes, to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth this year. With the challenges of the SEC schedule, there is so little room for error in the nonconference schedule. If the season comes down to the Bulldogs trying to make the case for the postseason with 17 or 18 wins, this one is going to really hurt.


Post Do we really need an extra “national title” game this year?

Tuesday November 14, 2006

If 2003 and 2004 were instances where some people said we needed one more game to decide things (the “plus-one”), is this year a case of needing one fewer game?

I mean if we’re not going to have a playoff, if the regular season means everything, and if the goal of the BCS is to match the two best teams, aren’t we pretty much done after this weekend? Is there something that the second tier of teams can show in the next three weeks that would convince pundits and pollsters that the two best teams aren’t playing in Columbus this weekend?


Post Georgia – GT set for 3:30

Monday November 13, 2006

CBS will televise the November 25th game against Georgia Tech. Kickoff will be at 3:30.


Post A product of this year’s experience

Monday November 13, 2006

If the Dawg fans you’ve talked to about Saturday’s win are anything like my friends, their first reaction to the win was probably, "FINALLY!". Georgia finally put a complete game together, didn’t blow a lead, didn’t make crushing mistakes, etc, etc. Finally. The next reaction was probably a question: "Where has that been all season?"

I have to ask though if Georgia was capable of that kind of game all season. I’m not sure they were. Were the pains of this year necessary in order to get to this point? Certainly some of it was. You actually saw Stafford learn and develop in this game. I disagree with Ching that Stafford didn’t make any "god awful throws" – there was a pass right before the touchdown screen to Lumpkin that was thrown behind and could have been intercepted. But that’s a minor quibble – Stafford was generally golden in this game, and two plays on the same drive show the payoffs of that experience.

  • After two forced fumbles while scrambling, Stafford slid safely once he had picked up another key first down late in the third quarter. He might have had more yards ahead of him, but he learned the lessons of the other two turnovers and didn’t get greedy.
  • Soon after that play, Georgia faced second down on the Auburn 9. The Dawgs lined up in the power "wham" formation with only Massaquoi lined up wide. The play was going to be a pass to MoMass isolated on the Auburn cornerback, but Auburn dropped the safety into coverage where the pass was heading. Instead of forcing the ball as he has so many times this year, Stafford saw that Auburn had perfectly defended the play, and he threw the ball out of the end zone. He strolled into the end zone on the next play to put the game away.

Stafford’s two fumbles hurt in that they cost the Dawgs two good scoring chances, but they weren’t fatal as many of Georgia’s turnovers this season have been. They were at least in the Auburn end of the field. More importantly, they weren’t interceptions. For the first time this season, Stafford didn’t throw an interception.

It also helped that Auburn’s offense (under Sooper Genius Al Borges) hasn’t been as productive this year. They managed a single touchdown against LSU. LSU has a good defense, but even Alabama’s hapless offense managed two scores. They didn’t score an offensive touchdown against Florida. They were just as impotent against Arkansas. They were pedestrian against South Carolina. Right now, Auburn fans are tearing themselves apart trying to play the blame game (trust us, guys, we’re very familiar with that). Should they have run more? They only called 16 passing plays. But you can’t run or pass when you don’t have the ball. Auburn had no drives – zero – longer than six plays. They could not convert third downs, and Georgia’s defense ended other drives. Even their scoring drives happened quickly. Because Georgia was able to hold onto the ball themselves and create some drives as long as 14 plays, 16 passing plays probably seemed like 40.

This kind of win is a big deal if the Dawgs can handle the success. The mistakes were reduced for one glorious afternoon – will the same smart decisions be there in the next game? Without the benefit of foresight, some are calling this win the official start of the Stafford Era. If he (and his team) can keep it up and also beat Tech, I’ll agree.

But above all else, beat Tech!!!

Stafford

The Orange Sea parts for Stafford…again. (AP – Todd Bennett)


Post Landers headed to the Hall of Fame

Monday November 13, 2006

Georgia’s iconic women’s basketball coach Andy Landers has been selected as one of the 2007 inductees to the Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame. The ceremony will be held next spring. This is a long overdue recognition for Coach Landers, and I’m sure he was thrilled that it came on the same weekend as a very significant win over Rutgers to start this season.


Post 700

Monday November 13, 2006

Georgia’s 37-15 win over Auburn Saturday marked the 700th win in the program’s storied history. Very fitting that the win should come in the game known as “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.”


Post Ten years later – any miracles left?

Friday November 10, 2006

It’s ten years since the famous 1996 Georgia-Auburn game. So many storylines…the four overtimes, the comeback, the Hail Mary, Uga and Robert Baker….

Others have more to say about it than I do, but to me the story of the game was a fresh Robert Edwards. Edwards was benched to start the game but became a poster boy for fresh legs in the overtime. He had nearly 100 yards of rushing (98) – in overtime alone. With both defenses gassed by the long and emotional game, Edwards seemed a half a second faster and ran effortlessly. Had the game gone on, I think he might have had another two or three touchdowns in him.

Can we do it again ten years later? Along with 1996, we might need to invoke 2002. Injuries at the receiver position forced the Dawgs to start little-known receiver Michael Johnson, and he ended up becoming one of the biggest Auburn-killers in Georgia history (remember he also had a big part in the 2003 game). The situation is slightly similar this year – Georgia is without several wide receivers, and A.J. Bryant might not be able to go. Demiko Goodman was lost for the season last week. Will another Georgia receiver use this opportunity on the Plains to add his name to Bulldog lore?


Post The pure joy of winning

Friday November 10, 2006

We’re cynical and hardened here in SEC country. Where college football has become big business, every play and decision is scrutinized like a performance metric. Wins aren’t impressive enough, losses aren’t acceptable, and the CEO coach goes from hero to bum from week to week and season to season. It’s not an entirely irrational reaction – the investment put behind these programs is serious stuff, and the passion behind it all is second to very little. When a program with the capital and human resources, talent base, and expectations that Georgia has loses to a program with much less in all of those areas, it leads to questions about how well those resources are being used. Business metrics again, and every fan is a McKinsey consultant with an answer.

Every so often though we’re reminded that all of this overhead is about a game played by college students. Complex thought behind schemes, state-of-the-art training methods, millions of dollars in investment, and huge national audiences all come down to how well 85 college students execute. That unpredictability is a lot of what makes college sports so maddening and also so enjoyable and superior to anything else.

We saw the kind of innocence and pure joy that just comes from winning that those of us who treat each game as an exam forget about. The fans had fun, not giving up on their team after a 15-point deficit. They unashamedly sang "We Will Rock You" as if hearing it for the first time. The players swelled with pride and emotion.

We see that kind of environment a lot in "traditional power" land, perhaps enough to dull us. Georgia might be down this year, but the environment for the Tennessee game earlier this year was as good as it gets in college football. The West Virginia game last year was just another game, but to the Mountaineers, it was everything – and they played like it. The hustle and passion shown by Rutgers last night is what impresses people more than a complicated scheme or true superstars.

We see this kind of story a lot in sports when fans get treated to a rare taste of winning. Atlanta went nuts over the Braves in the early 90s. Now they yawn and barely notice when they don’t make the playoffs. Kentucky beat a 6-4 Georgia team, but they tore down the goalposts in jubilation as if they had beaten Ohio State. Georgia baseball fans made Kudzu Hill a household name in 2001. That kind of pure enjoyment in the new experience of winning is what we saw last night, and it looks great every time we see it because we remember when we’ve had times like that. It’s what it felt like to be at Auburn in 2002 or in Jacksonville in 1997. Over time, we become used to or harden to those experiences and lose just how much it meant to have that innocent and even naive moment of pure joy after a win. It will be interesting to see how Rutgers fans go through this process in the coming games and seasons.

But what few are talking about while enjoying the Rutgers movie-script season is the complete collapse and bed-wetting by Louisville. Their 25-14 halftime lead wasn’t insurmountable, but any team worth a spot in the national discussion can’t let that get away. Louisville’s most frequently-used play in the second half was "QB scramble for his life left". They had a double-digit lead and one half separating themselves from a good chance at a spot in the national title game.

How fleeting it all is. Lousiville has a staff full of Certified Offensive Sooper-Geniuses™, but their unit looked lost and impotent in the second half. Even Jeff Bowden was chuckling. This week, he Again, full credit to Rutgers and their coaches and players. They had to make the plays and, most importantly, not fold early when they got embarrassed a bit in front of the home crowd. Once they settled down and were able to channel the evening’s emotion, they were fine. Now Schiano is the "it" guy…enjoy.

How would this be – say home field holds and West Virginia beats Rutgers in the last week of the season. Who wins the Big East and goes to the BCS?

Last night’s events certainly gave new life to many teams and threw open endless national title scenarios. Florida especially has to perk up at the prospects of moving up to #3. But Mark May’s caution is very apt here – there’s a ton of football to play yet. Call it the Virginia Tech rule – how many times in recent years have we seen them start out undefeated and then swoon in November? Or name it after Tommy Tuberville whose Auburn team got drubbed the week after complaining about the BCS. Play the games. There’s likely to be controversy this year, and that’s a topic for another post, but the cast of characters will surely change and be thinned between now and then.


Post Women’s basketball preview

Friday November 10, 2006

We looked at the men’s team yesterday, and now we preview the Lady Dogs. Rated among the Top 10 in preseason polls, the team should be strong and deep if they can weather some early season challenges in conditioning and personnel. The season starts tough right out of the gate with a Sunday afternoon game against perennial power Rutgers (1:00, ESPN2).

When we last left them…

The 2005-2006 Lady Dog season ended with a heartbreaking loss to Connecticut in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. But the story of last season was written much earlier. Entering last year, the Lady Dogs lost four frontcourt players due to injury and attrition. Tasha Humphrey remained as the only true post player, and wing Megan Darrah was forced out of position into the power forward role all season. The injuries left Georgia small and without depth on the frontcourt. They rarely played more than seven people.

Despite that depleted roster, the team still had a strong season. They came up just short in several close games against LSU and Tennessee, but they dominated the rest of the SEC. The senior guards ran the show, and of course Humphrey continued her all-American pace. Cori Chambers emerged as one of the nation’s deadliest three-point threats, and defense was strong across the board. The ability of the team to overcome a major preseason setback and still finish third in the SEC and top 15 nationally was the legacy of last season.

Key losses:

  • PG Alexis Kendrick
  • SG Sherill Baker

You can’t underestimate the loss of these guards. Baker blossomed as a senior, setting SEC marks for steals and emerging as a prolific scorer on her way to a WNBA first-round selection. Kendrick wasn’t quite the threat on offense, but her presence as a dependable floor general gave the team stability and identity. They were the glue that kept the team together.

Key additions:

  • F/G Christy Marshall
  • PG Ashley Houts

Marshall is an outstanding wing from Savannah. She will be a good inside-out option on offense and an athletic defender. Houts is the program’s point guard of the future. Tough and quick, she will be stepping into the big shoes of Alexis Kendrick right out of the gate. The additions actually don’t stop there. The return of posts Rebecca Rowsey and Angel Robinson is huge and should make the team much more balanced. Georgia also has two newcomers who won’t play – Jaleesa Rhoden is a shooting guard from Canada who injured her knee over the summer playing for her national team. Lindsey Moss transferred in from Tennessee and will sit out this year due to transfer rules. It’s also possible that UGA volleyball player Maria Taylor (remember her?) will play for the Lady Dogs this year.

The competition:

As usual, Tennessee is expected to be the class of the SEC. They return Candace Parker and a slew of talented players. LSU without Seimone Augustus will rely heavily on center Sylvia Fowles, but her supporting cast will be tested. Anticipating a slight dropoff from LSU, the preseason selections had Georgia second in the SEC. Kentucky and Vanderbit should battle for that fourth spot. Vandy has their usual tough squad, and Kentucky took a big step forward last year with a fourth-place finish and a win over Tennessee. Florida and Ole Miss should also be competitive.

The schedule once again makes things difficult for Georgia. The quirks of the SEC rotation have them playing both LSU and Tennessee twice (just like last year). Georgia was extremely competitive in those four games last year, but they still lost all of them. Fortunately, they took care of business against everyone else and still had one of their better SEC seasons in a while. The same challenge exists this year. Georgia has little room for error against "everyone else" if they want to be right there with Tennessee and LSU at the top of the standings.

Georgia faces a couple of early-season contests that will be made much more interesting due to the six-game suspension of Tasha Humphrey. The season opener against Rutgers and a Thanksgiving weekend home game against Stanford are games that Humphrey will miss. Tasha will be back in time for an important early December game at Georgia Tech.

What to expect:

The Lady Dogs enter the year ranked in the Top 10. Replacing the backcourt combo of Kendrick and Baker will be job #1. Ashley Houts is the point guard of the future, and she’ll be thrown into the fire right away. I believe the play of senior guard Janese Hardrick will be Georgia’s key this year. Hardrick over her first three years has shown spectacular offensive skills and strong defense. She has all the tools to be a star, but the consistency hasn’t been there.

Once Humphrey returns from her suspension, Georgia will be as deep and balanced as it has been in years. Tasha will have help inside, and there will be multiple options on the wing. We’ll see a freshman develop at point guard bolstered by the experienced Hardrick and Chambers. Unlike the past few seasons where they were forced into mismatches, Georgia should be able to have some elements of customization in their lineups in order to counter opponent strengths and weaknesses.

The Lady Dogs should certainly expect to finish again among the top four teams in the league, but a second-place finish seems very possible. They’ll have to turn the tide against LSU and hold off the rest of the conference, especially Kentucky and Vanderbilt, but this team should be capable of remaining in the SEC championship picture. A favorable conference result could be very important with the SEC Tournament right down the road in Duluth.


Post Men’s basketball preview

Thursday November 9, 2006

Georgia’s men’s basketball team begins the 2006-2007 regular season on Friday night against Southern. The Dawgs look to show additional progress from the 15-15 mark they ended with last season. Today we’ll look at what to expect from the men, and the women’s preview will be up tomorrow.

When we last left them…

Georgia flirted with midseason dreams of the postseason last year, and an early February win over Alabama made a postseason trip seem all but certain. The Dawgs faded during the final month of the season as team after team exploited Georgia’s lack of an interior presence. In the end, they came up a win or two short and spent March at home.

The bright spot last season was the play of Georgia’s young guards. Sundiata Gaines matured as a capable point guard. Freshmen Mike Mercer and Billy Humpries had impressive first years. Still, the inconsistency and youth at guard could not carry the team past its frontcourt deficiencies.

A .500 record last year was a disappointment after the early part of the season teased at something better. Still, that result represented a solid improvement over the hopeless previous season.

Key losses:

  • PG Kevin Brophy
  • F Younes Idrissi
  • F Kendrick Johnson

The tragic death of Brophy puts a crunch on the backcourt with no true backup for Gaines at point guard. Johnson didn’t play much last year, so his departure (for academic reasons) is a wash. Idrissi developed over his two seasons at Georgia but still wasn’t anywhere near a physical presence inside. His experience will be missed, but the Dawgs should be able to absorb the lost production.

Key additions:

  • F Takais Brown
  • C Albert Jackson

Help is on the way for the frontcourt. Brown and Jackson are both bonafide post players who were courted by some very respectable programs. Brown’s debut will be delayed indefinitely because of an academic-related suspension.

The competition:

Even if a team is better and improved in absolute terms, that improvement has to be measured against the teams it will play. Unfortunately, the SEC continues to improve across the board. Florida returns as the defending national champion and preseason #1, and much of the same cast of characters is back. Alabama and LSU look strong after deep NCAA runs last March. Kentucky had a "down" year by their standards, but the young talent they have should be coming along now. Tennessee should also be strong, but a late-season fade has kept them from being a preseason favorite this year.

While Georgia should now have the depth and talent to compete with anyone in the league, their ability to beat the rest of the conference will determine the bulk of their success. Seven games against Vandy, SC, Auburn, and the Mississippi schools will hold the keys to Georgia’s SEC fortunes. When you figure that a minimum of seven and likely eight SEC wins will be necessary for an NCAA berth, Georgia must holds its own against this group and find a couple of wins in the nine games they will play against UK, UT, UF, Bama, LSU, and Arkansas.

The nonconference schedule isn’t terribly brutal. A game against Gonzaga in Duluth should be interesting, and a trio of ACC games against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Clemson will be very good December tests. The Dawgs should expect to win the remainder of their nonconference games.

What to expect:

The frontcourt additions alone make this team much better. Dave Bliss is healthy, and Rashad Singleton has bulked up. Consistent guard play still will determine the success of the team. Stukes and Humphries will have to be much more steady shooters, especially from outside. Humphries can’t be the guy who hits a few first half baskets and then disappears. Mike Mercer has to find a role. He’s not quite a point guard, but his shot was too streaky to play him for long stretches at other positions. Mercer has spent the offseason re-tooling his shot, so we’ll see what comes of that. If he can be anything close to consistent as a shooter, he is explosive enough to become a big-time playmaker. Gaines will be fine at point guard if he is not asked to carry the backcourt’s offensive production.

The wing position could be an x-factor for the team this year. As a junior, it’s time for Channing Toney to show that he can be a steady contributor to the team. Sophomore Terrence Woodbury missed most of last year with an injury, and he is an unknown that could really make a difference. Georgia really hasn’t had much of a wing/small forward since Jarvis Hayes left, relying on guards like Damien Wilkins or posts like Steve Newman to fill that role. Woodbury in particular is the kind of player you expect to see at this position.

December games against Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Georgia Tech should be good barometers for this team, and a split of those games would be a pretty favorable sign. It would be a red flag if the Dawgs lost other nonconference games.

The deficiencies of last season were understandable and easy to spot, but they’ve been addressed and won’t be excuses for much longer. The jump from winning 15 games to winning 18-20 seems small, but that would represent wins over some very good teams while eliminating the occasional dreadful losses to some bad teams we’ve seen over the past two years (Auburn anyone?). That kind of transition can come from maturity and experience, and there are now several players with two or three years of experience in the Dennis Felton program. Fans have understood the challenges facing the program and been patient as Felton built a foundation, but for the first time in a while some payoff from that investment will be expected.