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Post Georgia 33 – Samford 0: Regression toward the mean?

Tuesday September 13, 2022

Georgia’s first home game as national champions could have been a bit more festive both on and off the field. But on a drizzly day with an FCS opponent in town the dominant theme was just getting it over with. Fans were late to fill in and early to leave. Tailgating was subdued. Even the teams agreed to shorten the game, and so we experienced the rare college football game to finish in under three hours. About the only party not interested in getting on with it was the SEC Network which was duty bound to empty its advertising inventory.

That dreary and disinterested setting carried over to the Georgia offense. It wasn’t a washout: Georgia scored on all six first half possessions. Some things were just a little bit out of sync. Three of the six first half drives ended with short field goal attempts. Georgia’s reserves couldn’t cross the goal line in the second half. The running game had difficulty getting to the second level. Stetson Bennett’s accuracy wasn’t as sharp as a week ago (if Darnell Washington has to extend to make a catch, the pass might be a touch too high.)

We were all blown away by Georgia’s offense in the season opener. The offense looked like an efficient machine reaching the end zone on every possession led by Stetson Bennett. It was impressive enough to vault Georgia past Ohio State in the polls and significantly shift the odds in the nascent Bennett Heisman campaign. That success was fueled by a bit of a statistical anomaly: Georgia was 9-for-10 on third downs against Oregon. I’m sure Todd Monken put the offense in some very good plays that were executed well, but we know that a 90% conversion rate isn’t sustainable. Against Samford the Bulldogs came back to earth going just 5-for-13 on third down. Outside of the three touchdown drives Georgia was just 3-for-11.

It’s fine to examine those third down plays to see what went wrong, but often third down is determined by what happened on the first two downs. Georgia’s offense under Bennett’s guidance is better when third downs aren’t a big part of the picture. In last season’s Orange Bowl Georgia faced nothing longer than 3rd-and-1 on their first two scoring drives. On the final two drives that took control of the national title game Georgia again faced nothing longer than 3rd-and-1. On the season Bennett was 65% on first down, 74% on second down, and just 53% on third down. His yards per attempt fell by over four yards from first and second down. Even his rushing yards per attempt fell on third down. Georgia’s offense was at its best when it was humming down the field on first and second down.

I expect most quarterbacks find it tougher on third down – you’re usually in passing situations with less of the playbook available and the defense knowing that a pass is coming. Still, third downs were a big reason why the quarterback controversy was slow to go away in 2021. The Oregon game was a hopeful sign of progress. Bennett was in control, accurate, and making good decisions. “That’s what I’m most proud of, it’s the third downs,” he said after the Oregon win. The Samford game was a return to more familiar patterns. Georgia faced just two third downs on its three touchdown drives and only one of any distance (Bennett found Kearis Jackson for a 17-yard gain on a 3rd-and-6.) Georgia wasn’t as effective on early down on its other drives, and the Bulldogs didn’t convert a third down after halftime.

That’s not to bag on Bennett; it wasn’t just an issue for the passing game. Georgia ran five times on third down and only converted once. Against Oregon we were dazzled as Georgia scored on sweeps and bootlegs to the outside, but maybe Georgia wasn’t confident in more conventional running plays between the tackles. The running game wasn’t exceptional with just 127 yards on the ground and 4 yards per carry against an overmatched defensive front. Georgia’s line, particularly at guard, hasn’t been great at getting a push, and only one Bulldog ballcarrier had a gain longer than 8 yards. Getting to the second level and opening the holes that lead to explosive running plays requires a coordination that isn’t quite there yet. It’s great that Georgia has enough skill talent and playcalling creativity to move the ball in other ways – we saw plenty of plays in the first two games on which passes were little more than extended handoffs. In areas like the red zone where the field becomes more compact it’s nice to have a little Manball in the arsenal.

If the offense was a little less focused from the first game, the defense showed progress. Let’s get the “but FCS opponent” disclaimer out of the way. It only takes a single broken play to lose a shutout, and the Georgia defense had very few busts. Samford’s best play was a fantastic catch against tight coverage, and the defense held fast to keep Samford from cashing in. The shutout was well-earned. Samford rarely crossed midfield, managed only three first downs, and had a single third down conversion in 13 attempts. This was an up-tempo spread offense that scored over 50 points at Florida a year ago, and Chris Hatcher knows what he’s doing on offense. Georgia once again handled quick passes to the perimeter, fought off blockers, and missed very few tackles. The Bulldog defense has held consecutive opponents who like to throw the ball under 5 yards per pass attempt, but it might soon get a different kind of test from SEC opponents who are more adept at running the ball.

  • Bennett of course had several excellent throws. One of the best came on a third down after an awkward sidearm attempt on second down fell incomplete. Bennett threw a dart right on the money across the field to Kearis Jackson along the sideline.
  • Bennett has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first two games, but he has negative rushing yards on the season (thanks to a bad sack taken against Samford.) You can excuse the coaches for not calling many designed runs so far that expose Bennett to contact, but the plays that have been missing are the runs that turn broken pass plays into positive gains. Instead Bennett has preferred to scramble in the backfield and look for a way to salvage the passing play. He was lucky to escape for a touchdown pass against Oregon, but against Samford the results were a sack and whatever that was before halftime. The line is thin between keeping a play alive and throwing it away to play another down, but Bennett has shown that he can do damage when he tucks and runs.
  • One of the bright spots in the running game was Kendall Milton. While McIntosh has flourished in multiple roles early this season, a healthy Milton might be the team’s best pure tailback. Milton had a career-high 85 yards on ten carries and had the team’s only running plays that broke longer than ten yards.
  • Young players getting their first significant action is one of the more enjoyable things about games like this, and Georgia began emptying the bench early. Since even prospective redshirts are able to play in four games, we were able to get a look at just about everyone cleared to play. Freshman receiver Dillon Bell caught a touchdown pass and had some nice moves in the open field. Mykel Williams notched the team’s first sack of the season. De’Nylon Morrissette had a pair of receptions. Daylen Everette was an early sub into the defensive backfield and gained valuable experience. On the opposite side of the inexperience coin Dominick Blaylock had a reception after years of working back from knee injuries.
  • The secondary led the team in tackling in the opener, but the front seven was more active against Samford. Smael Mondon led the team in tackles and had 1.5 tackles for loss. Defensive linemen like Walthour and Stackhouse were disruptive. Carter might not have stats that jump off the page, but his impact is obvious on just about every snap from the attention he draws.
  • There seems to be no shortage of playmakers in the secondary. Dan Jackson forced a fumble. David Daniel-Sisavanh continues to be a physical force in the middle and tipped a pass that could have been picked off. Javon Bullard had a perfectly-timed breakup of a fourth down pass. Last week’s defensive hero and leading tackler Malaki Starks had a quiet game statistically as did Ringo, but it’s not that they had poor games – there are just different guys stepping up.
  • Carson Beck again looked stable guiding the offense to Georgia’s final score of the game. He nearly had a nice touchdown pass to Bell, but his third down throw might have been better going underneath than forced into the endzone.
  • It’s interesting to see Ladd McConkey get the lion’s share of punt return opportunities whether or not the team was in punt safe. Kearis Jackson might not be 100%, but he did get to field a punt later in the game.
  • Can’t ignore Podlesny’s day. He just came up short on his long attempt but otherwise made sure each scoring opportunity resulted in points. A few bad misses, especially early, could have easily soured the impatient crowd.
  • It was unfortunate that the day’s light rain kept the Redcoat Band off the field. You’d hope that an off-and-on drizzle wouldn’t be too much for the drainage system of a professionally-maintained turf surface. Georgia is extremely supportive of the Redcoats, but keeping them in the stands just added to the scrimmage vibe of the entire day.
  • Most of the crowd was slow to filter in, but credit to the students for showing up early and in full voice.
  • It’s a shame many were scared away by the forecast. You won’t get many early September games with temps in the 70s, no glaring sun, and a cool east breeze. After a little early sprinkle it actually turned out to be a pretty decent day for football.


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