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Post Preparing for an elite draft weekend

Thursday April 28, 2022

A year ago I watched the Alabama-Ohio State title game and came away wondering what Alabama and other recent champs had that Georgia didn’t. Georgia’s recruiting for several years had been on par with or better than championship teams. Georgia had caught up in the facilities race, and there was no resource that the program lacked. As LSU produced a Heisman-winning quarterback and Alabama a Heisman-winning receiver, I kept coming back to this question: how do you get peak performance from your best players? How do you turn good talent – which Georgia had in spades – into the best players in the nation who will lead you to a national title?

Similar questions helped to frame the 2021 season. Did Georgia finally have its elite quarterback in J.T. Daniels? Could the offense perform at a high level without George Pickens? Was Todd Monken’s system going to deliver the evolution that propelled Alabama and LSU to their recent success? Kirby Smart made the point more abstract and blunt with a phrase most of us could recite by heart now: “you’re either elite or you’re not.”

The mistake I and others made was thinking about these questions only in the context of offense. It’s been beat into the heads of Georgia fans for the past five years or so that its approach on offense was holding the program back. If Georgia wanted the success and titles enjoyed by Clemson, LSU, and Alabama, they’d need to find their Lawrence, Burrow, or Tagovailoa – not to mention the fleet of future NFL receivers on the other end of those passes. They’d need an offensive system willing to turn the passing game loose.

Defense, after all, had done all it could do. Georgia’s defense was rated #1 by ESPN’s SP+ metric after both the 2019 and 2020 seasons. If the top-rated defense couldn’t do much to slow down the 2019 LSU offense or the 2020 Alabama offense, it was clear that a stout defense wasn’t the key to reaching the top. Georgia’s imperative would continue to be the transformation of the offense into something comparable to those other recent champions.

I hadn’t really considered that we could see a defense dominate the way recent offenses had. Georgia’s had wonderful defenders from Azeez Ojulari to Roquan Smith, but even that didn’t prepare us for entire dominant defensive line and linebacker groups. These units were to the Georgia defense what the LSU and Alabama passing games were in 2019 and 2020: difference-makers not only in September and October but against the best teams on the schedule. Yes, they were top-rated by SP+ again, but that can’t quite capture what it was like to watch Jordan Davis track down a player from behind, watch Travon Walker drop back into pass coverage, or see Channing Tindall fly in to make a tackle like a missile. The defense, which only had one representative on the preseason All-SEC first or second teams, were talked about it ways we’d only seen used to describe offenses in recent years.

While we were focused on the quarterback and offensive scheme, Georgia’s defense became the elite unit that the program needed to put it over the top and claim a national title. ***

Of course within an elite unit there are elite individuals. Georgia got peak performance from several defenders and made names like Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean as recognizable as some Heisman finalists. “Elite” is a squishy superlative, and it’s not quite right to apply that label to just anyone who happens to have contributed to a national title. We can use stats or awards to attempt to make “elite” more objective, and maybe the NFL Draft is as good of a tool as any. There are draft misses all the time, but at least we have teams willing to put money on their evaluations. Georgia is in the middle of its best run of draft picks in program history, and that speaks to recruiting and the rising talent level in the program.

But even within the draft there are tiers. I wrote after last year’s draft that “the next step for Georgia is to have more of its players called even earlier in the draft and especially in the first round.” Again, there are first round busts every year, but on the whole these are the prospects judged most worthy of the NFL’s largest investments. LSU had five first round picks after their national title in 2019, and Alabama’s 2020 championship team produced six first-round picks. Georgia’s program-best three first round picks came after the near miss in 2017.

That next step is likely to happen this weekend. Georgia’s defenders are expected to come off the board early and often – perhaps as soon as the top overall pick. They might not match the first round totals of LSU or Alabama, but Georgia should still have heavy representation across the lucrative first three rounds. It won’t just be the defenders in the spotlight – offensive standouts like George Pickens, Jamaree Salyer, and James Cook will hear their names called.

After seven rounds we could see a record number of Bulldogs drafted. More importantly we could see records fall for Georgia players selected in the first three rounds. Georgia had twice as many early round picks (6) in 2021 as they had in 2020 (3), and there should be even more in 2022. As more Bulldogs move into the elite draft positions, it will be recognition certainly of their individual hard work but also of Kirby Smart’s recruiting and talent development. The top-rated classes that have enrolled since 2018 made the most of their college careers and are now among the top-rated draft prospects.

To bring it full-circle, perhaps the most gratifying development of the 2021 season for me was seeing a large number of Georgia players become the difference-makers that we had coveted in other recent champions. The national title was a by-product of those performances, and having that accomplishment in hand makes it much easier and more enjoyable to send these individuals off to the next level without the familiar pains of asking what might have been. Now it’s time for them to receive their individual recognition and reward at the sport’s highest level.

(*** – The defense’s special season shouldn’t be seen as a rejection of the need for change on offense. Georgia’s offense might have been overshadowed by the defense, but it still topped out as the nation’s #3-rated offense by SP+. Todd Monken stayed true to Georgia’s advantages in the ground game, but the passing attack wasn’t ignored. Monken found ways to use the versatility of James Cook and Kenny McIntosh, featured a new and unique threat in Brock Bowers, and put Stetson Bennett in positions to succeed and make the most of what Bennett brought to the position. The offense pulled its weight without the presumed starters at receiver and quarterback and the two players most would have considered key to the offense taking a step forward. If the defense takes a step back from superhuman to pretty damn good, I expect that the focus will shift somewhat back to offensive production. Fortunately Georgia is well-positioned to continue its evolution on that side of the ball.)



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