DawgsOnline
Since 1995 - Insightful commentary on the Georgia Bulldogs

Post Potential talent drain adds urgency to 2017

Friday April 28, 2017

It was a good night for the SEC at the NFL Draft with the #1 overall pick and a record 12 first round draft picks. Half the conference (seven teams) contributed at least one player to this haul. Of course Georgia wasn’t one of them. Seth Emerson reminds us that Georgia’s absence isn’t a bad thing, though it is a necessary consequence of the fallout from the class of 2013 and finishing unranked in consecutive seasons. It’s worth remembering that several players who would have been likely draft picks (though not necessarily first rounders) chose to return and contribute to the 2017 team.

Emerson concludes that “it should be a good year numbers-wise for the Dawgs in the 2018 draft,” and he’s also right that there doesn’t seem to be a first round lock among them. I’ve thought that Michel projects as a higher pick because of his versatility, but Chubb could also do a lot for himself by playing a full, productive, and healthy 2017 season. Trenton Thompson has a very high upside among the defenders. Still, it’s likely to be a deep class, and you don’t have to look far to find ten eligible players from the 2017 team who should expect a serious look from the NFL.

The flip side of Emerson’s piece is an added urgency to produce in 2017. All eyes are on the incoming freshman class as Kirby Smart restocks the roster, but the potential loss of anywhere from 5 to 10 NFL-quality players (depending on the decisions of underclassmen) would leave plenty of holes around the depth chart. When you combine the returning seniors and the rising juniors, the team is perhaps as loaded at the upper end of the experience curve as it is at the lower end. After this season, the demographics of the team change to favor Smart’s first three classes and the 2017 class in particular. The extent to which the program is able to reload for 2018 depends on the progress of Smart’s first two classes as well as whatever the team is able to add in 2018, but that uncertainty makes it more important to show results with this current group.

A part of us wants to be patient with Smart’s process and recognize that there are still holes on the team where playing freshmen might be necessary even with so much top-end talent. At the same time, you don’t want the “throwaway season” label within miles of a team with that many potential draft picks. Seeing so many talented players come through without so much as an SEC East title would be as big of a shame as Stafford, Moreno, and Green also leaving without a trip to Atlanta. It’s going to be a lot harder to enjoy Draft Day 2018 if we don’t have much to enjoy in 2017 first.

(Is it unhealthy to already be anticipating the “well, we’re a very young team” line in 2018?)


Post You had to bring up the 2013 Auburn game

Wednesday April 26, 2017

Almost four years later and it still hurts. Bill Connelly is looking back at the games of the year for his 50 best college football teams (“best” usually meaning “most interesting” – buy the book.) 2013 Auburn is one of those teams, and you can guess what this featured game was. I agree with him – the Kick Six was a remarkable and unforgettable moment, but this Georgia-Auburn contest was a better game. For whatever reason I’m not the type to try to forget games like this…it’s the opposite, really. There’s so much to unpack from this game, and because I’m a masochist we’ll do some unpacking.

I like to start with the comeback. Georgia trailed by 20 twice. They were down 27-7 in the first half, trailed by 17 at halftime, pulled to within 10, and then Auburn responded with 10 points of their own to take another 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Instead of folding Georgia responded with three straight scoring drives and forced their only three-and-outs of the game to salvage enough time to take an improbable 38-37 lead inside of two minutes left. That’s how it ended, right? Go Dawgs.

I still marvel at the gift that was Auburn’s playcalling. Protecting a 37-31 lead inside of six minutes remaining and reeling after two Georgia scores, Auburn went away from the running game that had baffled Georgia’s defense. Nick Marshall threw incomplete passes on first and second down, presenting Georgia’s defense with a rare opportunity to get after the quarterback. Ramik Wilson chased down Marshall from behind, Auburn shanked the punt, and Georgia was set up in Auburn territory with plenty of time for the go-ahead drive. Too much time as it turned out.

Todd Gurley made his biggest mark on this game catching passes. A big part of Auburn’s early success came from bottling up Gurley in the running game. He finished with 79 yards on 15 carries – not awful, but not enough to make much of a difference in the game. Auburn’s large lead meant that Georgia was going to have to throw anyway, and Murray ended up attempting 49 passes. The wrinkle was that Gurley caught 10 of those passes. Those receptions only accounted for 77 yards, so they weren’t big gainers, but they were effective in sustaining the drives that enabled Georgia’s comeback and kept Georgia’s defense off the field. Murray came to rely on Gurley as a reliable check-down to counter the Auburn pressure that often left the tailback open. Gurley’s role catching the ball wasn’t new – we had seen him devastate Florida with a long catch and run just a few weeks earlier. He had 37 receptions in 2013 (third-most on the team!), but more than 25% of them came in this game.

Auburn didn’t punt until well into the third quarter. They got into scoring range on every first half drive. It was bad enough to be down 27-10 at halftime, but the only thing that kept Georgia in the game was that four Auburn scoring chances ended with FG attempts rather than touchdowns. The Bulldog defense was hanging on by its fingernails, but the game could have easily been over by halftime had Auburn turned half of those opportunities into touchdowns. The Tigers converted three of those four FG attempts, but another was blocked in the second quarter and kept Auburn from delivering the knockout blow. Limiting Auburn to a FG attempt early in the fourth quarter was key to Georgia’s comeback – it extended Auburn’s lead to 37-17 but still kept Georgia within three scores.

I’m glad Bill mentioned this – Georgia nearly had a response for the ages. Facing 75 yards to go with 25 seconds left, two long completions and an offsides penalty gave Georgia one shot from 20 yards out. That was about the situation for Michael Johnson’s catch in 2002, but it was Auburn’s year for miracles. I was still impressed that Georgia could do anything resembling football after what had just happened.

Aaron Murray came so close to several career-defining moments. The final drive of the 2012 SECCG is at the top of the list. But like Mason-to-Mitchell against Tech in 2014 or Eason-to-Ridley against Tennessee in 2016, Murray’s tough run to get every inch of five yards for the go-ahead score at Auburn was eclipsed seconds later and ultimately became a cruel glimmer of hope in a heartbreaking loss. Murray’s Georgia career ended a week later with a non-contact knee injury on a run against Kentucky with the game well in hand. That go-ahead score at Auburn was Murray’s last great moment in a Georgia uniform, and hopefully it won’t be forgotten as we try to put the end of the game out of memory. (Bat it down!)

The loss saved Georgia fans from a lesser disappointment: Georgia went into Auburn with faint hopes of an SEC East title, but they’d need to win out and have Missouri lose at least one more. That Missouri loss never came, and we were spared the gut-punch of being denied an SEC East title by Vanderbilt.

UPDATE: For a happier ending, Bill also features the 1980 South Carolina game in which Herschel Walker has no time for geometry.


Post “We wanted to see if we could throw the ball some.”: G-Day 2017

Wednesday April 26, 2017

[G-Day Stats]

When a team with a healthy Nick Chubb and Sony Michel trots out Brian Herrien as its featured tailback, you knew right away that the running game wouldn’t feature much in Saturday’s scrimmage. We saw enough of #1 and #27 to reassure us that, yes, they really did come back for another season, and that was plenty.

Herrien didn’t get a chance to break many runs against the first team defense. Blocking wasn’t great, but the first team offense also faced some of the crowded fronts we saw last year. Establishing some credible downfield threats as the offenses did in the scrimmage will help loosen things up for Chubb and Michel. Holyfield had a little more success against the second team, and he demonstrated why there’s some chatter about his value in the red zone. We saw no runs for the receivers or much beyond the basic sets and plays in the ground game.

This G-Day was all about the passing game. I’ll say only this about the quarterback depth chart: we should feel fairly at ease if the backup has to come in the game, and Fromm appears as if he’ll be ready to play if needed. That in itself is a relief. Fromm’s was as talented as advertised, but he also made some of the decisions that terrify you about putting a freshman quarterback on the field. It’s a growing process you’d rather not see play out in live action, but Fromm was worth getting excited over. He showed good composure, ran the offense well, didn’t make many glaring mistakes within the context of what he was asked to do, and only took a couple of risks you’d expect a freshman to take. Georgia has a good situation at quarterback, and it’s a much better idea to enjoy the bounty of talent at the position rather than make the competition a negative story. The only ominous sign was obvious during warmups – it’s not a crowded QB meeting room.

Eason did struggle out of the gate. Protection was some of the problem, but there were a handful of “sacks” on which Eason held the ball a little long. Things settled down for him in the second half, and the arm is just fine. Eason’s weaker throws came when he was on the move. He was especially shaky with timing and accuracy of some of the check-downs. Some good gains were there to be had with better throws, and he and the backs will have to continue to work on those short passes.

What was as disappointing at times as the line play was protection by non-linemen. Holyfield didn’t square up well to take on pass rushers. Payne had a poor block that aided a Natrez Patrick sack. Yes, linemen have primary responsibilities in pass protection, but most protection schemes feature roles for some combination of tight ends, tailbacks, and fullbacks. When these players miss an assignment, it often gets lumped in with “line play” because the results are the same – a sack, a hurry, or a quarterback running for his life.

I don’t see much use spending a lot of time on the offensive line. I don’t believe the August depth chart will look much like what we saw Saturday, so there’s not much use dwelling on the combinations. That position more than any other could see quite a bit of movement between now and the start of the season. About the only thing to take away is that the door is open for the heralded incoming class to compete for playing time and even starting jobs.

The same can be said for kicking – Blankenship started well and showed he had the leg to kick from 50 yards out, but focus and consistency left him in the second half. The door is open for competition there too. Punting is also up for grabs. Marshall Long was unavailable as he recovers from surgery, but grad transfer Cameron Nizialek was good enough to be considered for the role during the season.

I’m liking the skill set Georgia is developing at receiver. Wims had the usual JUCO adjustment year but is settling in as a favorite target of Eason’s. It took Godwin a little while to make an impact on Saturday, but I saw flashes of the improvement he’s said to have made in the offseason. Godwin’s ability to stretch short completions into longer gains is becoming an advantage. I didn’t see anything to make me think anyone other than Wims and Godwin will be the top two receivers. Chigbu and Stanley are in that limbo as upperclassmen where they must become more consistent or risk being passed over by the younger players that were on display. All that’s without Riley Ridley or Mark Webb, another promising incoming receiver.

There’s no denying the talent that Holloman and Hardman showed, though Holloman’s size advantage was exaggerated against a smaller walk-on defensive back most of the game. The hands and the routes will work against any most coverage, but we’ll see if he can be as physical against bigger and better coverage. Hardman didn’t get much of a chance to get the ball in space, but he made a nice move for extra yards on one such catch late in the game. We didn’t see any of the runs or gadget plays that could feature someone like Hardman – or, for that matter, Simmons. Simmons had a rough start with a fumble and a couple of early drops, but he rebounded well to make some tough catches and show off his speed on a long touchdown reception. I’m high on Simmons if only because there has to be a role for that kind of speed, and he was also able to take his lumps as a straight-up receiver in this game.

Yes, Hardman looked the part at receiver. Yes, he spent a lot of time there this spring. We don’t know what percentage of time, but it was enough to play him there exclusively at G-Day. At the same time, the Holloman-Hill matchup told you plenty about Georgia’s cornerback depth. I can’t picture a permanent move to receiver until we get a better idea in August about needs in the defensive backfield.

If you were expecting this to be the game in which Georgia showed an expanded role for tight ends, this wasn’t it. Blazevich was held out with a knee sprain. Jackson Harris caught a pass. Nauta’s only reception was a dump-off by Eason that resulted in a loss. Eason’s connection with Woerner in the fourth quarter was the only significant play to a tight end. Woerner split outside in the slot and found a hole about ten yards downfield. He shed a few tacklers (something which won’t sit well with Smart) and got a chance to show off some speed by outrunning the defense to the endzone. Tight ends were targeted a handful of other times, but for better or worse it was more of the same for the position.

The defensive front looked capable even without Thompson. Atkins’ pursuit and tackle for loss was one of the highlights of the day. Ledbetter, Walker, Bellamy, and Carter provided constant pressure. The defense had a bit of an advantage knowing that there wouldn’t be much of a running threat, but generally they did well to limit big plays on the ground and focused on getting to the quarterback. Eason in particular faced stacked fronts similar to what he saw last season and what he’ll likely see again in 2017 until the offense can loosen things up with explosive plays downfield. Juwan Taylor seemed to have a good game at ILB for the second team defense and was among the overall leaders in tackles.

Deandre Baker had a challenging afternoon – he was beaten deep a couple of times, shaken up on a minor injury, but he also had his share of wins. Malkom Parrish made some plays on the other side, and Tyrique McGhee had good coverage on one pass in particular to the endzone. Richard LeCounte was active and led his team in tackles, though, as Smart noted, it’s not a great sign for a safety to be making so many tackles. That was a result of Fromm’s success and Holyfield occasionally getting upfield. It is a positive sign, though, for an early enrollee to display such a nose for the ball. He and Gibbs should become quite a tandem in the secondary. If the first team defense needs to be humbled, Eason’s Black team ended up with a handful of explosive plays through the air.


Post G-Day Prep: Defense

Friday April 21, 2017

Interior: With Trenton Thompson and Roquan Smith sidelined, we’ll see deeper down the depth chart at defensive line and inside linebacker. If the offensive line is performing well and Georgia’s tailbacks are, well, Georgia’s tailbacks, those defensive units will have a tough test in stopping the run. If the first team offense struggles to run the ball inside without Thompson and Smith on the field, that wouldn’t be encouraging.

Shining star: Georgia didn’t lose much on defense, but Mo Smith leaves a big void after a successful one year stint at star. The position can be anything from a nickelback (third cornerback) to a hybrid LB/DB used to counter modern wide spread offenses. Senior Dominick Sanders began his career in this role, but he’s since settled into the safety position. Georgia is currently looking at a trio of defensive backs for the star role: early enrollees Richard LeCounte and Deangelo Gibbs along with sophomore Tyrique McGhee. McGhee, at 5’10” and 180 lbs., might be the smallest of the three but has a little bit of an edge thanks to his experience. All three bring a little something different. Gibbs is the biggest of the three at 6’1″ and just over 200 lbs – that’s closest to Mo Smith’s 6’0″ / 195. That could get him on the field in certain situations. As Kirby Smart put it, “I mean, you’re out there playing on Charlie Woerner and he comes to block you, do you want a 160-pound guy or do you want a 205-pound guy? It’s pretty obvious that we’ve got to have a big guy.” LeCounte, at about 5’11” and 180 lbs. He’d be considered undersized at safety and even at star, but his athleticism and power could help him win his share of battles against larger targets.

Red zone: There’s been an emphasis on improvement in the final 20 yards of the field, and revisiting 2016 red zone film was like “a kick in the stomach” to Lorenzo Carter (tell me about it, Zo.) This is one of those classic spring game Rorschach tests: the offense had their own red zone issues in 2016 and have been working through their issues. Elijah Holyfield, a physical “bowling ball” type of runner, has emerged as a possible red zone weapon. So if you see some scoring in red zone situations on Saturday, are you happy for the offense’s progress or dismayed for the defense?


Post G-Day Prep: Replacing the Joystick

Friday April 21, 2017

Isaiah McKenzie will be on campus Saturday, but he’ll be a spectator at G-Day like the rest of us. The unexpected unavailability of the Human Joystick – Georgia’s only underclassman to declare for the NFL Draft – leaves big shoes to fill across the team. He was Georgia’s leading receiver in 2016, but the returning roster plus some impressive newcomers should be able to absorb those receiving yards. He’ll also be missed in the return game. His biggest impact might’ve been as a gadget player (though maybe not on 4th-and-1…too soon?) His nine combined touchdowns (rushing plus receiving) tied him with Nick Chubb for team honors. Georgia is exploring options at receiver and returner, but it’s that utility role that most of us will associate with McKenzie. Who might we see running those sweeps?

Sony Michel: It’s tempting, isn’t it? It didn’t take two games into his freshman season to see Michel’s possibilities beyond tailback. He also had a kickoff return touchdown called back in the Belk Bowl as a freshman. His receiving touchdown in the Liberty Bowl was his first score in the passing game since the 2015 South Carolina game, but it’s no secret what Michel can do with the ball in space. At the same time, he’s still right up there with Chubb in the tailback rotation, and his readiness to step in as the feature back at a moment’s notice has to be considered.

Mecole Hardman: Getting Mecole involved was a priority entering spring practice. We didn’t see much of this heralded freshman beyond some reserve duty at cornerback, but there’s still enough hype for folks to wonder how much, if any, contribution he could make on offense. Kirby Smart cautioned that Georgia’s depth at defensive back might require Hardman to work primarily on defense, and Hardman’s role on offense could be determined by his ability to show the “sustainable focus” that’s necessary to handle the additional meeting time and work of two positions. Hardman saw work with the offense almost immediately in spring practice and will play on offense at G-Day, but his role beyond spring is still to be determined.

Tyler Simmons: Georgia flipped Simmons from Alabama on Signing Day 2016. He appeared in six games as a true freshman in a limited role. Simmons’s calling card is speed, and he was used in high school on the kind of sweeps McKenzie perfected. “Track speed” is always a plus. At under six feet tall, he’s going to have to rely on that speed to make an impact, and the McKenzie role could be a perfect fit.

Terry Godwin: Godwin might be too entrenched as one of the more experienced receivers to be considered for a utility role. Of course he’s always a threat to run (or throw) the ball, but I’d expect to see him continue in more of a traditional receiver role. Do we see the return of the Wild Dawg in 2017? If so, is Godwin still a top option to be behind center?


Post G-Day Prep: OL time crunch

Friday April 21, 2017

The offensive line took its share of the blame for the offense’s struggles in 2016, and fans will be watching G-Day for any signs of improvement up front. Reports out of practice are encouraging, but everyone would prefer to see the results for themselves.

While the current unit is improving, the line was also a focal point of the outstanding 2017 signing class. The Dawgs signed six offensive linemen (five high school prospects and a JUCO), and there is national top 100 talent at both tackle and guard.

The incoming class makes this a big offseason for a number of returning Bulldog linemen. Some veterans like Isaiah Wynn are in good shape to start and see playing time, and a couple of younger players, Solomon Kindley in particular, are getting noticed. But with a number of positions unsettled, freshmen will be competing for those roles. You’d prefer to not play many freshmen, especially on the offensive line, but several in this class are talented enough to merit immediate consideration.

For the rest, it’s an opportunity to stand out or risk being passed over by the next wave of linemen. You want to see growth out of a group that includes Pat Allen, Chris Barnes, Sam Madden, and especially former five-star prospect Ben Cleveland. The good news is that some of that growth seems to be taking place. Unfortunately Cleveland might not be able to showcase his work at right tackle at G-Day due to an injury, but a lot of eyes will be on the others watching how they and the line overall perform.