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Post Does Belichick make the same call as a college coach?

Monday November 16, 2009

The debate rages this morning over Bill Belichick’s unorthodox decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 from his own 28. Here’s the thing though – as gutsy as the call was, New England might get another shot at Indy in the playoffs. At worst, Belichick’s decision cost his team homefield advantage (not insignificant, I grant). The decision, which was probably the right one, ended up costing the game and homefield advantage, but it didn’t end his team’s chances at a championship.

Imagine if Belichick were coaching Texas and faced the same decision. A loss doesn’t just cost a game and a future advantage – it removes your team from the inside track to the BCS championship game. Does that change the parameters of the decision? Do you make the same call?

One Response to 'Does Belichick make the same call as a college coach?'

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  • AdvancedNFLStats.com broke down the numbers on the situation.

    There’s no “probably” about it. As they summed it up, “Statistically, the better decision [was] to go for it… and by a good amount.”

    The numbers would be different in college, but given offenses/defenses similarly better/worse than the CFB averages, the decision should be the same. Yeah, idiots that hate and/or can’t understand math are going to yell, but the better move is still to go by the cold, hard numbers.