The Senator says that the preseason talk around the Bulldogs has
an "uncharted territory" feel to it, and I have to agree. It’s
a challenge for the team, and excitement and optimism can seem like kryptonite
to a fan base full of Munson disciples.
But a high preseason ranking wouldn’t be a first for a Mark Richt team. The
Bulldogs were a consensus
#3 in 2004, and they even started #1 according to the Sporting News. The
outcome of 2004 notwithstanding, a lot was expected of the final year for Greene
and Pollack. The Senator’s right, though: there’s just a different feeling about
the hype surrounding this year’s team. Why the difference? I see two reasons,
and both have to do with the aftermath of the 2003 season.
- Momentum
- The post-2003 college football landscape
Momentum. Though Georgia played in the 2003 SEC Championship,
they didn’t finish the season well. They "won" the SEC East after
an obscure tiebreaker broke a three-way tie with Tennessee and Florida. Then
they got steamrolled by LSU in the Dome. Finally, the Dawgs escaped the Capital
One Bowl in overtime against an ordinary Purdue team after blowing a lead in
extraordinary fashion. It was 10-win season, and I’ll always consider that defense
one of the best of the modern Georgia era, but that was a pretty shaky way to
end the season. Though Greene and Pollack returned, there wasn’t much momentum
from 2003 into 2004.
Contrast that picture with the current state of the program. Georgia has an
active seven-game winning streak. They closed the season with double-digit wins
over rivals Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech. Finally, they finished the season
with a BCS embarrassment of Hawaii which earned Georgia the #2 ranking. The momentum
began building right away as nearly all of the first looks at the 2008 season
had Georgia at or near the top. The momentum has sustained itself through Signing
Day and spring practice, and it shows no signs of letting up.
What does 2003 have to do with now? Given the drama towards
the end of the 2007 season, the consensus in support of LSU’s championship is
strong. Other contenders either didn’t win their conferences (Missouri, Georgia)
or lost their bowls (Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Ohio State). It was a different
story of course in 2003 when LSU and Oklahoma played for the BCS championship
while Southern Cal claimed the AP title after their bowl win.
The fallout from 2003 immediately
established Southern Cal and Oklahoma as the teams to beat heading into
2004. LSU, as defending champion, was somewhat in the picture but was ranked
no higher than third by any preseason poll. The Trojans and Sooners were so
clearly established as #1 and #2 entering 2004 that even Georgia as #3 generated
very little title noise.
(As an aside, I believe the above also explains why discussion
of Auburn’s 2004 schedule as a factor keeping them from a shot at the national
title is a red herring. No one was passing Southern Cal and/or Oklahoma unless
one of those two lost a game. Auburn could have played the Colts, Patriots,
and Steelers out of conference and still had no shot for anything better than
#3.)
There is no such clarity heading into 2008. Instead the preseason talk has
been to identify a pool of about eight contenders. Ohio State will be good again,
but two title game losses have pundits nervous about naming them a favorite.
Southern Cal will be in the mix as always. Georgia, Texas, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma,
and Missouri have just as much place at the table. With a top ranking as much
up for grabs this year as ever, why not Georgia?
Without a clear favorite entering the season, it will be interesting to see
if that lends itself to greater poll volatility early in the season. Will the
polls pick a #1 and stick with them, or will the first few weeks be an audition?
The Florida Factor. I can’t let this post go without mentioning
this point. Last summer when everyone was talking about who was and wasn’t a
national power, I
put down three simple criteria that seemed to hold up. One was that you
can’t be under another team’s thumb. Georgia had lost six straight to Florida
entering the 2004 season. With that kind of track record in Jacksonville, it
was pretty easy to dismiss Georgia as a title contender even at #3. Though it
will take a few more wins (consecutive wins would be a big first step) to declare
the Gator domination over, the Dawgs are certainly in a much better position
vis-à-vis the Gators entering 2008 than they were entering 2004.