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Post Playing for the natty?

Sunday December 2, 2007

The BCS nightmare scenario actually happened:  Missouri and West Virginia, #1 and #2 in the BCS, lost on Saturday.  Ohio State and Georgia, #3 and #4, look to move into the BCS championship game.  But not so fast – Sunday’s voting should be as interesting as Saturday’s games.

What we think we know:

  • Ohio State is probably in the national title game.
  • Georgia is very likely among the top four in the BCS and will be guaranteed a BCS bowl.

The question of course is the Buckeyes’ opponent.  Based on Saturday’s results, there are about six teams hoping the polls and computers will place them in the title game:

  • Georgia
  • Kansas
  • Virginia Tech
  • LSU
  • Southern Cal
  • Oklahoma

Mark Richt made Georgia’s case on ESPN after midnight on Saturday.  His outstanding points:

  • There is no requirement that the BCS champion must win its conference.  It is an issue that has been voted on and rejected several times.  
  • Georgia has beaten seven bowl-eligible teams and played a schedule that included nine bowl-eligible teams.  Georgia has beaten good teams like Florida and Auburn handily, and they held the powerful Kentucky offense to 13 points.
  • Voters and the computers placed Georgia #4 and in this position last weekend even after it was clear that Georgia couldn’t play for its conference title.

The case for and against the others:

Kansas:  Still just a one-loss team, but beat no teams of Top 25 quality.

Virginia Tech:  Won the ACC, finished strong.  Lost big to LSU.

LSU:  Won the SEC, lost only in overtime.  Had two reigns at #1 and lost each time.  Had a chance to wrap up a spot in the title game at home against an unranked team last week and didn’t.

Southern Cal:  Pac 10 champs.  Playing as well as anyone, finally healthy.  Awful loss to Stanford.

Oklahoma:  Big 12 champs.  Dominant win over #1 Missouri.  Played poor schedule, lost recently.  Possibly too far back to jump to the title game.

The uncertainty is a fitting ending to a season like this.  Now let’s all take a month off and play a bunch of exhibition games.

2 Responses to 'Playing for the natty?'

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  • Ugh!! This is killing me!! Coach Richt makes a great point. We were voted to #4 when they knew we would not be playing for the SEC and they still put us there. I see no reason for us to get screwed now.

  • From the website of the Anderson and Hester College Football Computer Rankings (A BCS component poll):

    “What are the Bulldogs’ chances of holding off Virginia Tech and LSU? Virginia Tech would actually become more of a threat if LSU loses; otherwise, most poll voters will think twice about ranking, or about continuing to rank, the 2-loss Hokies above a 2-loss Tigers team that pummeled them. On the other hand, if LSU loses, then all of the SEC support will go to Georgia. In either event, Virginia Tech has a shot of catching Georgia, but I don’t think it’s a good one, and the Hokies would probably have to beat Boston College in very impressive fashion to be much of a threat. LSU is the greater threat. In terms of holding off the Tigers, it would presumably be best for Georgia if (1) Virginia Tech beats Boston College (thereby keeping LSU from rising by attrition) and (2) LSU doesn’t rout Tennessee. If either of those two things goes the Bulldogs’ way, I like their chances; if neither does, I like the Tigers’ chances.”

    Read that last part carefully Dawg fans…it provides a glimmer of hope!