I was listening to Cowherd’s interview with Gary Danielson yesterday, and the
SEC championship was framed as a clash between defense (Alabama) and offense
(Florida). This isn’t to pick on what was a good interview or disagree with
that storyline because – let’s be honest – most people are looking
at it that way because those have been two very dominant units.
But framing the game that way tends to underrate the other elements of the
game – namely Alabama’s offense and Florida’s defense and special teams. First
let’s look at the Alabama offense. It has most of the pieces you’d expect from
a quality offense. The line is veteran and talented. Knowshon Moreno might be
the best back in the SEC, but no school has a running back tandem as good as
Coffee and Ingram, and Upchurch isn’t bad. Receivers are adequate until you
come to difference-maker Julio Jones. It’s a long time ago, but the way this
offense came out, mixed it up, and took it right at teams like Clemson and Georgia
earlier in the season opened a lot of eyes.
As the
Senator notes, it all comes down to quarterback play for the Tide. He’s
been shaky a few times this season but nothing like the roller coaster ride
that was 2007. If he has time, he should be fine, and Alabama’s experienced
OL should help them here against a talented but young Florida defensive front.
Then there’s the Florida defense. It was assumed during the offseason that
the Florida defense had to be better because – hey- it couldn’t get much worse.
I don’t think many people expected this kind of improvement though.
How good is the Florida defense? You know that great Alabama defense everyone
sees as a strength in this game? They check
in at #3 in total defense (248.5 YPG) and #3 in scoring defense (11.5 PPG).
Pretty damn good, right? Florida is #7 (275.67 YPG) and #4 (12.3 PPG) in the
same categories. Less than 30 YPG and 1 PPG separates these two defenses.
Florida also has the edge in turnovers. They lead the nation in turnover margin
thanks in large part to being third in the nation with 32 takeaways. Florida
has 23 interceptions this year, and that’s just one less than Alabama’s total
number of takeaways.
Any distinction between the two defenses becomes even more hazy when you look
at common opponents.
Common Opponent – Georgia: Florida W 49-10, Alabama W 41-30.
Both teams had one explosive half against the Dawgs, but Florida’s defense held
Georgia off the scoreboard better than Alabama’s. You can argue whether or not
Alabama let up, and Florida did give up close to 400 yards to the Georgia offense.
Common Opponent – Kentucky: Florida W 63-5, Alabama W 17-14.
Not even close. Kentucky had the Tide nervous, and Florida reduced the Cats
to rubble.
Common Opponent – LSU: Florida W 51-21, Alabama W 27-21. Both
teams feasted on LSU turnovers, but the difference was in the ground game. LSU
rushed for 201 yards against Alabama but only 80 against Florida. Did the nature
of the game matter? The LSU-Alabama game was a close one where LSU could stick
with the run. At Florida, the Tigers were down 20-0 and in comeback mode not
long into the second quarter.
Common Opponent – Ole Miss: Florida L 30-31, Alabama W 24-20.
Both teams played Ole Miss close, and Florida actually held Ole Miss to fewer
yards than Alabama did. The difference might have been turnovers. Florida forced
only one Rebel miscue, and Alabama came away with three. Florida in 2008 mostly
avoided the big play bug that hurt them so much in 2007, but an 86-yard TD pass
in this one made them pay. Again, Alabama let up in this game and saw a 24-0
lead evaporate.
Common Opponent – Tennessee: Florida W 30-6, Alabama W 29-9.
Both teams held Tennessee to a few field goals, but Florida held the Vols to
nearly 100 fewer yards.
Common Opponent – Arkansas: Florida W 38-7, Alabama W 49-14.
Alabama was definitely the more dominant team against the Hogs. Florida was
in a 17-7 game in the second half while the Tide used offense and defense to
put their game away by halftime in a foreshadowing of what was to come in Athens.
After looking at that, is the Alabama defense really that much of
a relative advantage in this game? Special teams will also matter. Both teams
have exciting return men, but Florida’s punt block unit has been one of the
big behind-the-scenes development of the season. They plowed through Kentucky
and Vanderbilt punt protection with speed and skill that would make Poland nervous.
Florida right now is the opposite of what we’ve seen this year from Georgia.
Instead of offense and special teams making it tough at times for an already-shaky
defense, Florida defense and special teams are making things easier for an already-potent
offense.
Alabama has the pieces to win this game, but I have to go with a Florida team
that has been consistently excellent over the past two months on offense and
defense. The Alabama and Florida defenses are statistically very close over
the course of the season, but the gap between the offenses is nowhere near as
tight. Florida wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the underrated Florida
defense make its mark on the game in a very big way.